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Sylvania Pl Share Chat (SLP)



Share Price: 28.65Bid: 28.00Ask: 29.30Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Sylvania Pl
Spread: 1.30Spread as %: 4.64%Open: 30.50High: 0.00Low: 0.00Yesterday’s Close: 28.65


Share Discussion for Sylvania Pl


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ragnarlothbrok
Posts: 925
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:28.65
RE: RE: Shorts in Play?
Fri 17:19
There has certainly been a pick up in volume lately, of that there is no doubt. Perhaps it has something to do with the hype around Pd and Rh at the moment and the resulting 13% increase in the monthly basket so far, the biggest one month increase for many many years.

Whether the volume portends something more interesting we will see. As the little PI we are always the last to find out and so need the longest time horizon of them all.

Have a good weekend.
 
ChazBigspuds
Posts: 1,053
Opinion:Hold
Price:28.65
RE: Shorts in Play?
Fri 16:41
I think most shares on AIM whether big or small can have manufactured drops, as there’s not enough regulation and you can still turn a good profit dropping the SP a few pence on the tiniest of shares.As I say, I’ve seen similar patterns on several holdings of late and the only one I’ve taken advantage of was RPT, where I sold out at 60.3, to see it drop day after day to the mid 40’s. Personally, I was holding for sub 40p to re-enter and then of course, there was an RNS that the market totally overreacted to and the price briefly dropped to the mid 20's. Sod's Law, I was in a meeting at the time when I got the email alert pop up and I couldn't buy at the bottom, but I got back in in the low 30's and it bounced back to 38p on the day as sense prevailed.Only saving grace here on SLP is that as the price dips, it looks like someone is buying 125k and 250k lumps along the way and a battle is unfolding (some as delayed trades), but its dropped almost 7% today irrespective. Also just seen 3 x 50k purchases pop up now and all within seconds of each other which are clearly buys, so maybe someone has read my earlier email and is trying to push it the other way now, LOL?!As to who would look to buy, I wouldn't rule out Africa Asia Capital, but buyouts nowadays seem to come out of left field when you least expect it and usually via China of late (and from huge companies most of us have never heard of), but after months of comparative quiet, we have seen some rather odd trading days here and some chunky buys creeping in of late.Monday should be interesting.
ragnarlothbrok
Posts: 925
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:28.50
RE: Shorts in Play?
Fri 14:25
Chaz its a bit small to be shorted isn't it? The cost of shorting on a stock this small held so tightly would be fairly prohibitive. I think its just profit taking. YTD the SP has shot up 80% and the market is down considerably today. There are a lot of long holding, faithful institutions on the register which have probably been waiting for a liquidity event like the recent increase in volume.

I have also recently taken a considerable amount off the table and will be looking to re add these into an ISA soon, reflecting my belief that this will be a 10%+ dividend yielder in the near future.

Our largest shareholder, Africa Asia Capital, is a Samancor subsidiary which has been a shareholder since 2010. Why would they make a bid now? I think they have their hands full with their chrome operations and don't think they have ever been interested in PGMs. I would think that they are more likely to be sellers than buyers.

I personally can't really see any foreign potential buyers of the business here given the investment climate in SA right now. SA PGM potential trade buyers all have their hands full rationalising their asset bases and there are very few potential synergies that any of them could have with any of the SDOs.

Chaz who do you think would the most likely buyer?
ChazBigspuds
Posts: 1,053
Opinion:Hold
Price:29.00
Shorts in Play?
Fri 13:31
Tighter spread than indicated, but the 250,000 at 29.25p that was delayed for 2 hours looks like a buy to me and has mopped up a few - hopefully we'll get a few more like that today to catch these shorters out.

Still think this has some way to go from here, but a few more trades like that and a positive RNS should see us restart the journey towards a truer value next week. Personally, I still think we're ripe pickings for a takeover bid from either our largest shareholder or someone external given the share movement of late, but we'll see.

In the meantime, we have the shorting game in play, but ultimately, this will be onwards and upwards as they say - roll on 6th April for my next ISA allowance.
ChazBigspuds
Posts: 1,053
Opinion:Hold
Price:29.25
Shorts in play?
Fri 11:25
To me, it looks like we have a shorting attack in play here since yesterday afternoon, with a few well timed biggish sells in quick succession, usually in groups of 3's within seconds/minutes of each other.

Seen the same game played on a few shares of late and its always the ones that have had a good rise of late, where volumes have quietened down a tad. Really think this practise needs closer inspection, as its underhand and panics some holders out of their good shares and once this vermin have had their fun (or better still, a good RNS comes out that catches the shorters out and makes them lose money), the price eventually recovers to where it was.

I for one will be holding throughout and have a price point in mind that is well beyond the 30 pences, so will keep an eye on this and hopefully I can add to my ISA holding come 6th April.
ChazBigspuds
Posts: 1,053
Opinion:Hold
Price:30.75
RE: Delayed buys
Thu 15:40
Who'd gamble against more delayed trades this evening?

I still think someone is loading up here, but at least the SP has finally begun to start bridging that gap between where we were/are and what this should be worth.
raxfactor
Posts: 149
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.00
RE: WPIC March
Thu 11:11
Great article thanks for posting as things stand it looks as though there is still room for Pd to go higher which is amazing, be nice to see Pt move north from its lows.
All we need now is for the US and China to sort out their differences and agree a trade deal.
ragnarlothbrok
Posts: 925
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.00
RE: WPIC March
Thu 07:58
Hey Visitor, from a SLP perspective yes this is great!

Terrifying in the potential for how high Pd can go. Add very low ETF holdings to all the other elements supporting this trend which we are familiar with: Russian supply restrictions, the perpetual spectre of SA strikes, Eskom load shedding (reduction of 20% in available power I hear) and the petrol/diesel shift.
Visitor
Posts: 475
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.25
RE: WPIC March
Thu 05:25
Hi Ragnar - thanks for this very interesting read.

The Palladium ETF Chart at bottom right of 1st page is indeed the most interesting thing. When you say "terrifying", speaking purely selfishly in terms of SLP, I assume you mean terrifying in a good way?

It shows that in 2015, the ETF holdings of palladium were 3 million Oz. Now in Q1 2019, they have dwindled to only 700K Oz! To me this once again confirms the long-term fundamentals of Palladium are solid. That there are huge deficits in supply so the physical palladium holdings have had to be run down. Normally I would expect with such a huge run up in palladium price, ETF holdings would increase with investors and speculators piling in on the bandwagon. I don't doubt in short-term palladium is susceptible to speculation, hence we see major moves up and down. But it does proves palladium really is being depleted by end users for consumption.

It also shows at start of 2018 the ETF holdings were circa 1.4M Oz. So if there is now only 700K, if it carries on based on this current trend, what happens in 12-15 months time if all ETF palladium holdings have been "leased"/ depleted and no physical exists?!

It really must be terrifying for car manufacturers and surely a reason that to ensure security of supply, to try and switch to platinum in gasoline catalytic converters.

It may also be terrifying for anyone invested in a Palladium ETF that isn't backed by actual physical Palladium on a 1:1 basis! Or even those invested in physical palladium who have not read the small print if their palladium is being "leased" or based on fractional principles.
ragnarlothbrok
Posts: 925
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.25
WPIC March
Wed 16:28
This organisation is funded by the platinum producers so may be regarded as a bit of cheerleading and not sure how independent it is. But they always have some interesting market information and manage to add an optimistic slant to the releases (despite the constant negatives in the Pt market).

Interesting that in the March Pt perspectives release they say that the platinum surplus of 2019 is a one-off due to inventory release. I think this was somehow linked to the Impala refinery restart processing surplus metal.

The palladium ETF holdings chart is fascinating, and a little terrifying.

https://www.platinuminvestment.com/files/473200/WPIC_Platinum_Perspectives_March_2019.pdf

Oh yes, and rhodium looks to be up today. Again. Even Pt being playing nice lately with the constant spectre of SA strikes and Eskom load shedding 20% of capacity.

Keeping us all on our toes I trust.
gotti
Posts: 558
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.40
RE: Delayed buys
Wed 15:01
Dan,
imho you're doing more harm to the sp with these ramps
Dan_The_Man
Posts: 13,370
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.40
Delayed buys
Wed 14:51
Being slipped on left right and centre... I’m expecting about 300-400k to come still...
Dan_The_Man
Posts: 13,370
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.50
Only SING left now at 32
Wed 13:41
Let’s take him out...
Dan_The_Man
Posts: 13,370
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.75
Guys...
Wed 11:31
Someone is bying big here on the quiet... I dont know who it is but i think someone wants us badly...
Dan_The_Man
Posts: 13,370
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.50
WINS moved
Wed 09:38
from 32 to 32.5... Thinking we go there shortly...
the_shareminator
Posts: 11,377
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.50
Palladium
Wed 09:36
I've mentioned before the Russians have been cornering the market and news yesterday suggests this strategy is intensifying. Palladium prices hit their highest levels on record following news that Russia is planning to ban exports of precious metals scrap in an effort to grow domestic refining of palladium.

“There have been rumors that Russia would restrict exports of some scrap materials. When the market is as tight as palladium is, sometimes such news can take on more significance than it should,” said Philip Newman, a director at Metals Focus.

Russia is a major producer of palladium, which is used mainly in catalytic converters for cars with gasoline engines. Demand for palladium has increased as diesel engines have lost market share in response to public concerns about air quality.

The buying up of palladium by Norilsk, at spot prices despite it being Russia's largest palladium producer is another piece of the jigsaw in their long term strategy to control supply and pricing.

South African supplies alone are unlikely to feed growing demand for palladium and this despite a general slowdown in global vehicle sales.

"Palladium is now a leader in precious metals, with each price hike making news and further media discovery of its tightness," said George Gero, analyst at RBC Wealth Management in New York. "'Talk of Russia slowing palladium exports is front and center in any analysis on palladium."

Gero also cites another less spoken use for palladium -- as catalyst for cracking crude oil into products such as gasoline and heating oil.

"China is also resorting to economic stimulus, so the landing for the auto industry may not be that bad at all from the palladium investors' perspective."
nighthawk
Posts: 61,403
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.50
RE: We are about to go higher...
Wed 09:35
Buyer.....
Dan_The_Man
Posts: 13,370
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.50
We are about to go higher...
Wed 09:34
200
800
Dan_The_Man
Posts: 13,370
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:30.40
Guys...
Tue 14:25
They are filling some bits in the background for sure, the sells are getting quoted higher and higher... I think we see a improved shareprice this week and substantially more this first half of year...
Visitor
Posts: 475
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:29.00
RE: Looking Good
18 Mar '19
Ragnar - think you've partly answered your own question!

Like you state with free cashflow after tax of around $23M for 2020, that is 20% of a market cap at 30p (PE of 5). The free cashflow is likely to be more based on this basket price, current ZAR weakness and if 80,000 OZ p.a. can be achieved.

SLP already have 1 years earnings in the bank ($20m+), sizeable trade balance in their favour ($18m) and in consideration of circa 15yr production life and dividends, a PE of 7 is more than fair, which would be 44p (or PE of 6 normalising for cash in bank).

I'm obviously not expected this tomorrow or this calendar year, but if they do indeed start to pay substantial dividends next FYE Jun 2020 (10%+), basket price maintains this strength and they can hit circa 80,000 p.a., see no reason it can't hit 44p+ onwards and even overshoot this, particularly if it's paying such meaty dividends. The Capex for FYE June 2021 and June 2022 is circa only $3m and even with 10% dividends, by then unless they've used the cash accumulating in the bank on growth opportunities (M&A or organic growth), cash in bank will be huge and special dividends would then be on their way.

This is even before you consider a market default by one of the exchanges of physical delivery of palladium and the price exploding higher, along with Rhodium.

I would at least like to see Liberum's target of 35p hit within next 6 months. If in new FY starting July 2019 they confirm 10% dividend yield (split across interim and final dividends to), leading up to first dividend I could see it hit 40p.

However if they do not deliver on either fair dividends nor deliver a clear growth strategy (I don't mind if there's not a 10%+ dividends as long as it's used for growth acquisitions like Lesedi, but needs to be clear), I can see SLP stagnating in the 30s. SLP are in the enviable position of paying out sizeable dividends & having cash for M&A. This is why it's key all shareholders lobby SLP to ensure reasonable dividends are provided to shareholders to realise true value.
Dan_The_Man
Posts: 13,370
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:29.50
Hi guys...
18 Mar '19
Still holding from 9s... looks great and will continue to press on... that 250k earlier has soaked up any selling and I think we see 35p this week... I’m holding until £s but good luck whether you buying selling or just watching...
ragnarlothbrok
Posts: 925
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:29.50
RE: Looking Good
18 Mar '19
Strange trading happening today but looks like 30p has been paid. Remarkable YTD rise of 79%. It's great to see SLP finally achieving it potential. Well done all.

So we've all been banging on about this stock being undervalued over the last couple of years. When is it no longer undervalued? Is the market starting to factor further large price increases in Rh and/or Pd?

At 30p the FCF yield at current prices for 2020 is still around 20%, which could comfortably support a 10% dividend yield at a 50% payout ratio.
ChazBigspuds
Posts: 1,053
Opinion:Hold
Price:29.50
Looking Good
18 Mar '19
Some huge buys going in today since lunchtime.
ChazBigspuds
Posts: 1,053
Opinion:Hold
Price:28.00
Roll on Monday
17 Mar '19
Cant see any reason why we shouldn’t keep rising a penny here and a couple of pennies there over the coming weeks until we reach a truer value. Nothing goes up in a straight line of course, but there’s lots of positives here, loads of cash, huge profits and positive future plans from a board that knows where it’s going and is achieving - rare on AIM!
the_shareminator
Posts: 11,377
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:28.50
RE: Basket
15 Mar '19
Completely agree and today's rise is the beginning of another leg up I hope. Sold all my SHG to buy more here today. Highest purchase price I've ever paid for SLP shares!




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