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Thank you weirdpal & meoryou for your replies.
Gingy
Think it looks like US cpi coming in higher than expected spooked the markets.
DOW down 400 points.( higher interest rates for longer as inflation may be back)
Oil took a quick tumble ,but already is showing strength again.
Last year an excuse like this would have been used to take oil, and then BP down.
Think now finally the penny has dropped that it’s OPEC that’s in charge of oil prices.
US CPI: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/04/10/us-cpi-comes-in-faster-than-hoped-rising-04-in-march/
Hi meoryou, have you got any ideas for the drop all of a sudden on most of the shares?
Wolfiebill
This might interest you,( or some others also)
https://globalsyngas.org/wp-content/conference-presentations/2020/2020-w2-d1-m2-JM-BP-Presentation.pdf
It's perfectly feasible, there would be massive operating savings if they were bought by another oiler with strong downstream / gas assets to mirror bp's oil heavy upstream oil, especially if they had a weaker trading capacity too. But the UK Gov might balk at say, CNPC or CPECC, and Aramco too. Unlikely to want Total, or Chevron / Exxon, but perhaps another US domiciled business such as Shell might work? Now that the crown jewels of bp have been exited by Looney (geo / res dev), it's inevitable as their R/P ratio won't get any better.
Anyone here think it likely that BP could be picked off by another major in the next couple of years?
Personally speaking I think this is a great step forward on a number of fronts and I would hope improve BPs "green" image profile. I wonder which party was the main driver in the research?
Have a great holiday
Send us some sun
:)))))
Morning Spights
Sundays the annual family holiday to Torremolinos.
So on countdown.
Sp finally appears to have some connections to oil price.
Sp about 10% of 52 week high, oil price about 5% off 52 week high.
Think the Shell US rumours have also helped.
Onward and Upwards
A very good morning meoryou
Onward and Upwards:))))))))))))))
It's usually one or the other when it comes to robust oil and gas trading for the quarter. To get both for Q1 24 says to me results will be strong in May, although with such a firm commitment to buybacks I'm not expecting a dividend increase.
I imagine they'll let Shell go quicker than they'll let bp go. However I can't see either happening. As soon as Shell starts to hire lawyers to make the switch, Wael will recieve an invitation to 10 downing street, be wined, dined and 6ty-nined and suddenly the O&G political pressure cooker will be turned down in the UK.
Looking for reasons for BP’s dismal performance vs SHELL… and homed in on the composition of the BoDs….. SHELL’s young, highly qualified execs are in a different league.
Time to pension off the old guard into running the GPO or seats in the House of Lords .
WP
Knew Murray was Canadian, but just found out Sawan is listed as Lebanese-Canadian.
Both not being British does give them some advantages when dealing with UK politicians.
Maybe a few threats can head off Labours worst excesses.
I'm less optimistic on Sawan, I think what we have here is an oil veteran who has had the path not to take laid out for him by another oil veteran that goes by the name of looney. He's seen what happens to SP when oilers attempt to take a step back and he doesnt want to make a rod for his own back. He's doing/saying everything a new CEO should (we'll do more with less and quicker) without any major advance in strategy, MA is doing very much the same at the present time.
The comments around a US listing are political posturing at best. The UK gov (even if its labour) will pull out all the stops to stop the biggest companies leaving their national exchange. To my previous comment on this, by saying US is more attractive he's confirming to the markets that he doesnt believe he can grow the SP organically, rather than what is technically accounting.
He has given confidence to investors however, something bp is consistently failing to do.
Yet another example of UK PLC self harming.
Posted by Getagrip on Shell site
I think when we look back on Sawan's tenure at Shell he will be seen as a master-strategist. As Shell knows super-tankers are very difficult to turn around, but for me he is doing an excellent job and relatively speaking, at pace. If anyone is in any doubt on this try discussing the topic with a BP shareholder.
Certainly Sawan is trying to raise Shell's SP, and close the gap, by stating that New York might be on the radar. But he is also demonstrating that Shell will not passively accept being a pawn for the soon to be electioneering parties in the UK. For me he might even be trying to boost the share-price as a prelude to a hostile takeover attempt. Maybe he is thinking along the lines of following the current fashion of buying a US oil company & attempting to mitigate any regulatory hurdles with a bit of hearts and minds strategy. Maybe he is indirectly trying to highlight some of BP's comparative weaknesses, with a view to a possible merger or takeover.
Exciting stuff though, to balance against yet another rainy UK day.
Spill.
Floods Prompt Russian Refinery Shutdown. Russian oil company Forteinvest shut its 135,000 b/d Orsk refinery in southern Russia because of unprecedented flooding on the Ural River, halting ongoing maintenance works as its product stocks would be enough to cover 10 days of regional fuel consumption.
Iraq Mulls Restart of Idled Pipeline. The restart of Kurdish crude exports to the Turkish coast is unlikely to materialize anytime soon, but Baghdad is repairing the 350,000 b/d Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline destroyed by ISIS in 2014, potentially re-routing some of its exports as soon as next month.
Hedge Funds Embrace the Bullish Mood. Portfolio investors purchased the equivalent of 37 million barrels in key oil-related futures and options in the week ending April 2, with net length in Brent now standing at 300 million barrels whilst the outlook on WTI is more cautious, at 208 million barrels of net length.
Nigeria’s Fuel Woes Bubble to the Surface. Nigeria’s national oil company NNPC is reported to owe $3 billion to fuel traders in the African country as the reimposition of fuel subsidies makes retail sales a loss-making business for the NOC, with payments taking more than 130 days to come through.
Shell Mulls Delisting from London Exchange. UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) is reportedly looking at all options including switching its listing from London to New York, saying that if the European valuation gap doesn’t improve by mid-2025, the company could make a move.
Fierce Pipeline Dispute Moves to FERC. US midstream firm Energy Transfer (NYSE:ET) has asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to look into the activities of Williams Cos Inc., saying it builds interstate pipelines without approval whilst the latter claims ET is blocking other operators from building new projects by not allowing them to cross existing pipes.
Guinea Is Running Out of Electricity. The African country of Guinea is facing an electricity market collapse as the state-owned utility firm announced it would deepen power cuts as energy sources get depleted, stemming from extremely low hydropower generation as well as breakdowns at thermal plants.
Copper Bulls Are Riding High Again. The three-month LME copper benchmark contract reached $9,450 per metric tonne for the first time since January 2023 as a steady inflow of hedge fund investments keeps the bullish momentum going, buoyed by improving manufacturing data from the EU.
Panama Canal Water Levels to Rise. The Panama Canal Authority indicated that water levels in the Gatun Lake should gradually increase from the end of May as the rainy season takes over in Latin America, with drought-heavy El Nino conditions giving way to La Nina, bringing more rainfall.
Leaking Gulf of Mexico Pipeline to Restart Soon. The Main Pass Oil Gathering (MPOG) pipeline has successfully undergone a line integrity test and will be restarted soon after transportation was halted for more than six months, shutting 61,000 b/d of offshore production, following a November spill.
Floods Prompt Russian Refinery Shutdown. Russian oil company Forteinvest shut its 135,000 b/d Orsk refinery in southern Russia because of unprecedented flooding on the Ural River, halting ongoing maintenance works as its product sto
German industrial production finally broke through the cycle of gloom after it posted a 2.1% increase in February, well above the consensus expectation of a 0.5% rise month-over-month.
- Although Germany’s manufacturing is still below its pre-pandemic levels, the surprise hike in activity fuelled this week’s copper rally and reinforced the expectation of the ECB cutting rates from June onwards.
- In contrast to actual figures, business sentiment in Germany remains sour as the S&P Global PMI index dropped as low as 41.6 in March, from 42.5 in February, suggesting the country’s manufacturers don’t necessarily share the optimism.
- Europe has been the laggard continent in terms of rising commodity demand as oil demand keeps on trending flat, electricity demand has now declined for two consecutive years, and steel production has fallen to its lowest level on record.
Market Movers
- UK-based oil major Shell (LON:SHEL) and Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) are reportedly vying for the LNG assets of Pavilion Energy, a trading firm set up by Singapore’s Temasek, in a deal that could be worth 2 billion.
- UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) is reportedly nearing an agreement with Anglo-French upstream firm Perenco to divest its Amherstia, Cashima, and Immortelle gas fields in Trinidad and Tobago.
- French energy major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) has postponed a final investment decision on its Papua LNG project to 2025, saying more alignment would be required with engineering contractors.
Tuesday, April 09, 2024
Brent crude futures have established a firm footing over the $90 per barrel mark and not even a brief opening for a potential ceasefire in Gaza managed to pull it lower. Mexico cutting oil exports will ensure bullish sentiment continues to build in the coming weeks, with further directionality set by the US and Chinese inflation numbers this week, potentially even paving the way for a climb closer to $95 per barrel.
LNG Prices Keep Calm Despite Strong Asian Buying. Spot LNG prices in Asia have been rangebound in recent weeks around $9 per mmBtu despite higher-than-usual buying from China and Japan as European LNG imports are set to drop to a 7-month low of 8 million tonnes on high gas inventories.
Mexico Keeps on Cutting Oil Exports. Having withdrawn 436,000 b/d of crude oil exports in April, Mexico’s state oil firm Pemex intends to cut its May exports by 330,000 b/d. The country has refrained from declaring force majeure on its supply contracts despite stretched crude production.
Guyana Struggles to Launch Its Gas Bonanza. Whilst Guyana’s oil production has been surging recently, its $1.9 billion gas-to-power project is running at least six months behind schedule, with operator ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) forced to halt 400,000 b/d of production for a month in Q3.
Iraq Mulls Restart of Idled Pipeline. The restart of Kurdish crude exports to the Turkish coast is unlikely to materialize anytime soon, but Baghdad is