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Have a look at the SS posting history and you will pessimism at its finest. The name is quite appropriate when you consider the posts. Shareholders invest with the aim of dividends or investment gains. Guess who is just a doom and gloom worshipper.
Sense at last. Tracker 2209
The days of the company being able to secure commercially viable contracts are long gone. Who would even consider negotiating with a company that is very likely going into administration within a matter of weeks? Even if there was a potential customer Avanti would get screwed over because of the fatally weak position they are in, it's what is known as "business" and nobody is going to pay a penny more than they have to, I know, I've been through it. This company is doomed, it is purely a matter of when not if, and I believe the only meaningful "negotiations" going on at the moment are not regarding contract wins, but who gets what when we go belly up, with the banks and bondholders at the front of the queue. Before I am accused of being a de-ramper, if you check my posting history you will see that I started off being a firm believer in the business model, after all I invested my hard earned in the company. I became more and more disillusioned as time passed and there was nothing of substance happening as regards big, game changing contract wins. Then there was the unedifying sight of the pig at the trough, selling his shares following the successful launch. That was when I first started to have real doubts about the company. Since then the share price has headed south all the way from porky pig's �7.30 odd, down through my average �3.60, down and down and down to where we are now. I freely admit that I do not have the technical knowledge that some posters on here possess, but I do have a very long career in business and can recognise (too late now) a hopeless case. Sadly for all of us p.i's, we are going to end up very shortly holding worthless shares in a worthless company. Still. it's not all bad news, someone will definitely make money out of the infrastructure that we have paid for, just won't be us. Here's hoping I'm wrong, but I don't think so.
Wake up wake up. You're having a nightmare.
More likely to be at Weatherspoons celebrating the signing of new sales contracts. Fat lady was definitely not there, as she has seen the light and joined the gym and is desperately trying to get slim!
Actually they are in the Weatherspoons down the road from their office drowning their sorrows. ( paul Walsh gets a discount ) . There is also some live music on too. .....a special performance from the FAT lady.
i really do hope Avn are working very hard behind the scenes in winning contracts etc. After all us p.i.'s have put a lot of our hard earned money into this company, we would at least expect the 'A' team to do the same and come up with a reassuring RNS to put our minds to rest. It is a unique product they're offering and i think they'll do very well in Africa but that clock is ticking away and its making us all very anxious.
To be fair, I'm no Warren Buffet, so my suggested wording for an immediate RNS is hardly rocket science... getting something out that stated what I was suggesting or wording to that effect MUST already have occurred to the bigwigs on the AVN board and their advisers. The fact that they haven't (yet, at least) issued such an obvious RNS is my biggest current concern. about AVN. Why wouldn't they do so? Unless they STILL haven't sorted any resolution for their $50m/$90m short-term funding needs... 40 days to go till end of H1. AVN sure has a tiresomely ongoing habit of brinkmanship, which hardly makes for a stress-free ride as far as the PI is concerned.
This goes back to a post I made some time ago in relation to the need for AVN to issue a meaningful update on the current state of financials post the last RNS. AVN are notoriously poor at keeping their PIs in the know but as days tick by and no positive news in sight I fear the worse. However, AVN have an excellent product and if they can somehow dodge another bullet than we could see a profitable business. Also some good news on the future would surely help capture the contracts deals it so desperately needs. Let's have some!
Hits , totally agree and great summary at the end to which the BOD should take note off IMO I believe that their are more pieces moving on this chessboard than we can imagine dyor .
HITS, Very sound analysis, if we had an RNS such as the one you have set out I think the price would be significantly higher. Have a nice weekend.
Buko, yes it's a given that there are possibilities of negotiation and extension of payment terms. However, as we all know, AVN's April 9th RNS states:- "Furthermore, if the Restructuring completes but the Company is unable to raise Additional Funds of at least US$50 million and secure US$40 million infrequently recurring revenue in pipeline by 30 June 2018 then based on the projected cash flows of the Group, the Company will, within the 3 months following 30 June 2018, be highly likely to be unable to pay its creditors, as and when they fall due for payment. In the event that the Company is unable to meet such obligations as a result of the failure of the Restructuring to complete or the failure to raise sufficient Additional Funds, the Directors would likely seek to place the Company into some form of insolvency proceeding, or a creditor may take action to enforce or initiate an insolvency proceeding. Any such proceeding would be likely to result in little or no value for Shareholders." The oddity is that it is the company itself that has stated the firm deadline of June 30th. It needs the $50m of extra funding and the $40m "infrequently recurring revenue" to drop, both by June 30th, or it'll be unable SOMETIME DURING Q3 to meet its already incurred debts. To me that suggests it must have a substantially large payment to make in early July, which it doesn't have the funds (currently) to cover. Maybe that's the final payment following successful in-orbit testing for Hylas-4. Either way, my view remains that:- 1. AVN has been obliged to alert the market itself via RNS to its current funding issues. 2. AVN has itself specified the deadline (Jun 30th) by which these funding issues must be coverfed or otherwise resolved. 3. AVN therefore has a clear and equal obligation to inform the market - again via RNS - on how it is resolving or has resolved these issues. In fact IMV, it would be very sensible - if true - for AVN to issue an RNS right now stating something like:- "With reference to the company's short term funding needs detailed in the RNS dated 9th April, the AVN BoD would like to inform all investors that it has made significant progress towards the complete resolving of these and has every confidence that such resolution will be finalised in an apt and timely fashion. Further detail will be announced when arrangements are finalised."
If positive news does come out shortly regarding the pile of debt were in then things will pick up with Avn, After all they're offering a unique and great product to the African market as well as the middle east and south america, If this hurdle of debt can be overcome then it'll be upwards from there. The iknowledge programme in Tanzania is taking off even though as HITS stated its only modest in size, but bearing in mind the economic situation in that continent satellite broadband is by far the cheapest and most economical so tailored for that particular market.
Scotty, I read your comment and totally agree, but enjoy the risk until it all goes wrong, as others have said this is red or black, hopefully some positive news will come out shortly regarding the $40m and $50m
HITS June the 30th is only the deadline day for payments the company will have to make to take or ease the pressure off if they find a solution in the mean time to pay or delay through talks or intervention they still have 90 days after the June date ie the 30th of September Before it will or will not implode.. RNS 9th APRIL ..
Think thats the big mystery surrounding this share. Has AVN got contracts pre ordered up there sleeve or not? Nobody on here has a scooby doo either way regarding this. As someone mentioned previously,red or black?
looking through the RNS again you have to wonder how much can really be done between now and the end of June to raise the best part of 100m. Unless they already have agreements in principle you have to assume this is unlikely. I will look back at this message and regret not pulling what remains of my money out of this...
yep this is the remaining elephant in the room.. tick tock
JTIS... That is the $50m - or possibly the $90m - problem-ette which AVN was obliged to make the market aware of as part of its Apr 9th RNS. It is completely separate from and additional to the D4E swap that has been approved. To date, no further news of any sort regarding this ever more urgent (at least from a timescale in which required POV) funding need has been communicated by the company - apart from the news that the Open Offer raised about $200k (the AVN Apr 27th RNS) I'm certain that like you, any genuine AVN PI who isn't certifiably insane would be at least somewhat keen to get some official clarity from on how its self-announced funding gap is going to be met (or has now been met), in order for it to be able keep the lights on. Of course, one or two allegedly genuine PIs refuse to even give this any thought at all, despite it being an AVN-announced issue. 44 days till the end of June and counting...
The RNS did say "The Directors forecast that revenue for the current financial year will not be less than US$50 million. In addition, there is a large infrequently recurring transaction in the pipeline that, if it closes, would add a further US$40 million to Group revenue, with US$18 million of associated costs, in the current year. With effect from the end of the current financial year, the Company expects substantial growth in revenue driven off the introduction of HYLAS 4 to the fleet opening up new markets in sub-Saharan Africa." However I don't think this covers the requirements set out previously. The $40m might come off, but where is the other $50m going to come from, and even if we get past June they say revenue will pick up but I still think they will be loss making for another 12 months minimum. So for me every day that passes makes me think that the risk of failure grows without news. GLA - that's my thought for today. Who is going on the attack the rampers or the doom-mongers.
IKVL - if you'd been around longer you would know that initially, SS posted a negative view supported by evidence and critical thinking. Sadly, though unsurprisingly, he immediately got waves of abuse from the large cohort of numpties which post on this Board, and (somewhat understandably) decided to just start winding them up/dropping to their level instead. Like I say, pays to have a few facts before firing salvos. As an additional question, are you actually familiar with the expression 'all over when the fat lady sings'?
I think IKVL might be GCCR in drag. I am South Street and The Fat Lady just to be upfront.
IKVL - 3 posts in, and you're already accusing people of 'spouting rubbish'. Might do for you to build a little knowledge and experience before casting aspersions, eh?
Correct. You do know very little.
Although probably fairly modest in value, absolutely the type of opportunity that AVN should be aiming at - at least from a geographical point of view. Satellite broadband is invariably the connectivity option of last resort (from every point of view, whether cost- or performance-based etc etc) BUT... where there is literally no other option - and in territories like Africa, that's a very sizeable "where" - it absolutely has a role to play and requirements to fill, because it will do the job adequately where no other delivery technology can even be considered for a deployment with any chance of a commercial return.