Member Info for zoros

MFU: Have you read the RNS today? SD explains the drilling regime.
But I will assist anyway:
59800m drilled to Dec 5th. 40,000 remains to be drilled (growth only) between then and end of June 2022. It might be tight, but most of this additional drilling will find its way into NCM's publication of their mre on 18th August.
Having said that, I recall TT saying the drill results for this NCM date (18/8) come from a June 30th resource update which will appear in the august results. That being the case, assays for the June results will stop around end of April '22. So conceivably the NCM mre will show drill results for Dec 5th to end of April - worse case scenario.
Does that make sense?
Z

https://www.moneymetals.com/copper-prices
Z

Correct Lunchmoney.
Z

Starbright - beautifully put, TT: concur.
Z

The postscript to the BMO 2022 presentation, footnote number 3:
https://www.newcrest.com/investor-centre/results-reports?document_type=4

Tier 1 asset defined as potential for >300kozpa Au at 15 years (preferred) and significant resource or exploration upside likely.
Tier 2 asset defined as potential for >200kozpa Au at 10 years (preferred) and moderate resource or exploration upside likely.

Let's stick with our partners definitions.
Z

It took me 2 hours to digest the MRE RNS this morning. I have to say it was both a surprise and a great pleasure.
If Shaun's team is looking in here, may I say a big thank you from me for listening to your shareholders concerns and pursuing the publication of this MRE. Further, following through with that refreshing Proactive video this morning. This is now front and centre of any FMV negotiations for the 5% JV arrangement. You've done your bit, you and your team should be very proud of yourselves. Well done GGP.

Now, a breakdown of 'data', targetting those amongst us who require simplicity!

1. The plan is to build a SLOS that caters for a minimum of 3mt/yr for atleast 10 years. Trucks will transport the ore 55km by road to Telfer where a dedicated processing facility (train 2) is waiting. [33Mt / 4.2MozAuEq / 10yrs].
2. As and when the resource increases (<6mt/yr), bulk underground mining will be required and plans are afoot to design this which hopefully (with or without GGP) will commence in 2029 (Hannam).
3. The MRE2 captures a period: early Feb '21 to early Dec (Dec 5th), 2021 ( 10 months). 'Indicated' results come only from the SE Crescent. 'Inferred' results capture the same plus early results from the Eastern Breccia.
4. 40Km drilling (almost all growth drilling) to be carried out this year to end of June.
5. FCF (first cash flow) estimated 2024.
GGP estimates: 25mt@3gAu/t / 0.44%cu. This equates to 2.4Moz Au and 110ktCu overall.
[240kozAu/yr. 11kt/yrCu]. GGP annual income: £48m/yrAu, £14m/yrCu. Total: £62m/yr].
Hannam estimates: 291kozAuEq/yr @ £760/oz profit: £55m/yr income.
{the above based on $1850/ozAu. £5.2k/tCu. GGP owning 25%}.

Hannam values GGP @ a NPV (Dec '22) of £1.05bn. SP: 25p.

ALL of the above calculations based on a 'point in time' (Dec 5th 2021).

NCM will produce their MRE2 in August. By then, most of the remaining 40Km of growth drilling will have passed thru the assay office, so I would expect further value added to this interim MRE2.

Z

Morning CreditLimit - I see your point but prefer to look at it from a more conciliatory perspective. IMO:
SB simply wasn't ready to publish a comprehensive MRE2, he needed more time and therefore delayed it.
SD thought otherwise because his agenda is different. He has the 5% FMV on his mind and a lot of pressure from his shareholders about a tangible MRE2 being put 'out there'.
I go further and might suggest SD approached SB and discussed his predicament and the two agreed on this interim RNS.
[There is, however, a little voice in my head also whispering that SB is by nature, a ruthless businessman, wanting the best for his company. The upcoming 5% transaction would serve his shareholders best if he didn't publish the MRE2 until negotiations were over.]
I like to think the conversation between SB and SD ended in a mutual respect for eachothers agendas. There was no 'falling out' (wink emoji!).
Z

cont'd..............

We roll our valuation to Dec’22E and tweak our throughput and grade profile to mirror GGP’s release for our SLOS model. We continue to assume a subsequent block caving operation will be developed within the lower grade breccia zones, commencing production in 2029 (vs 2028 previously). We maintain our gold and copper price assumptions at US$1,850/oz and US$8,500/t respectively alongside a 5% WACC to reflect the tier-1 jurisdiction. This drives a target price for GGP of US$1.27b or GBp25.8 per share, based on our DCF model as well as
a US$100m valuation for the remainder of GGP’s exploration assets, offering 93% upside

Today’s updated MRE reflects increased drilling completed from 5 Feb’21 to 2 Dec’21
(59km additional for ~210km total), both infilling and extending the Indicated Mineral Resources defined in the South East Crescent Zone and adjacent Breccias.
The updated Ore Reserve has been calculated using a break even cut off value of approximately A$95/t milled, and a marginal cut off value of approximately A$80/t milled (vs A$130/t NSR cut-off used in the Stage 1 PFS Ore Reserve). The reduced cut-off is largely a result of increased throughput from 2 Mtpa to 3 Mtpa, the latter being in line with the Stage 1 PFS Investment Case and the basis of the upcoming Feasibility Study. Metal prices and fx were also tweaked (US$1,450/oz Au, US$3.23/lb Cu and 0.73 AUD/USD vs US$1,300/oz Au, US$3.0/lb Cu and 0.75 USD/AUD) but the impact is noted as minimal due to the high-grade, high-NSR value of the South East Crescent Zone.

End.
Z

cont'd...............

GGP’s updated Ore Reserve is based on a ~3Mtpa underground SLOS operation
with an expected mine life of 10 years. The scenario builds upon the Stage 1
PFS, which demonstrated the potential to expand the Project and increase the
mining rate to 3Mtpa or more based on the upgrading of the Oct’21 Inferred
Mineral Resources and additional potential Mineral Resource growth from
immediately below the South East Crescent Zone. We tweak our model to
reflect GGP’s indicative production profile, driving 291koz AuEq gold
production over a 10-year SLOS mine life for US$807/oz AISC on a by-product
basis.
Catalysts: FS Dec’22; step-out drilling; decline progress for first gold FY24
A key upcoming catalyst for Havieron is delivery of the Feasibility Study in
Dec’22 alongside decline progress. Havieron is expected to deliver first gold in
FY24, with GGP estimated throughput of 0.7Mt before ramping up to 2-3Mtpa
for a 10-year mine life based on current Reserves. We expect this to grow
strongly with the bounds of mineralisation still undefined. Upgrading of
current Inferred Resources alongside extensions to the South East Crescent
Zone and below the updated MRE should deliver substantial increases in-time
which we believe could transform the project into a contiguous block cave
operation towards the end of the decade.......

cont'd.....................

Greatland Gold (“GGP”) has announced an updated Mineral Resource for Havieron based on drilling results up to 2 Dec ‘21. The update has grown Resources to 5.5Moz Au and 218kt Cu (6.5Moz AuEq), a 53% increase in total gold content compared to the last MRE (see pg 2). An impressive 86% of Indicated Resource converted to Probable Ore Reserves, testament to the
excellent high-grade nature of mineralisation at the South East Crescent Zone.
As a result, Ore Reserves have also increased 50% to 2.9Moz AuEq. A further 40km of growth drilling is targeted by the end of June as definition of Havieron’s mineralised footprint sharpens. We remain optimistic on the deposits ultimate size, noting the most significant result outside of the South East Crescent Zone to date was announced in Jan’22 (HAD104: 62.5m @ 5.9 g/t Au & 0.30% Cu). Development is also making steady progress. The decline,
in more challenging ground conditions than expected, has completed 277m as at 25 Jan’22. A Feasibility Study is slated for Dec’22 and Havieron is expected to deliver first gold in FY24 to feed into Newcrest’s hungry Telfer mill.

Today’s MRE update incorporates an additional 87 holes for ~59km (~210km total). Key changes include the addition of the Eastern Breccia Resource, not included in the previous Stage 1 PFS Mineral Resource as well as both infilling and extending the South East Crescent Zone. Indicated Resource tonnage has more than doubled, with grades dropping ~30% to deliver 61% extra gold equivalent ounces. Inferred material has also grown 54% to 57Mt, with a 7% drop in gold grade to deliver 35% more gold equivalent ounces. We view the
refresh undertaken by GGP as prudent. It allows GGP to assess both financing and project decisions based upon a closer reflection of the project’s qualities (previous MRE was based on a 5 Feb’21 database cut-off).

cont'd............................

12/21. Scallywag assays overdue.
Q1/22. GGP ESG report due.
11/03/22. NCM March Interim Exploration Report. GGP interim report.
8 assays pending. (GGP: 2 assays pending @ Zipa).

Z

Superb!
To be fair seanhunter, he changed his name from cookicrew to bubblebutt2021 in 2020. But he's definitely the village idiot still.
Z

Glad you’re back Seanhunter.
Injecting some sanity to the bored (sic).
All eyes should be on the sale price no thing else.
Z

Ignore previous roadmap.

March 2022. HAVIERON
14/05/21. Decline commences. (460m deep / 3km long).
15/07/21. Mine officially open.
Q4/21. Growth drilling continues. 120,000m between June ’21 and July ‘22.
12/21. Scallywag assays overdue.
Q1/22. GGP ESG report due.
02/22. 5% valuation initial agreement date.
11/03/22. NCM March Interim Exploration Report. GGP interim report.
8 assays pending. (GGP: 2 assays pending @ Zipa).
27/04/22. NCM March quarterly results. GGP Term sheets?
Q4/22. Drilling commences @ Ernest Giles.
08/07/22. Bromus mining rights expire.
20/07/22. NCM June quarterly results.
18/08/22. NCM Full year results. To include MR&OR update / MRE2*.
27/10/22. NCM quarterly results.
02/11/22. GGP Annual Report.
Q4/22. D.F.S. Decision to Bulk Mine the Crescent Zone only (as a JV) by NCM / GGP.
[NCM loan of $50m runs out on completion of DFS].
[Decision to mine will result in payment of 145m shares to Pacific Trends Resources].
Q4/22. Bulk Mine decline commences. [750m deep / 6km long].
10/22. Byrnecut contract for first decline terminates.
12/22. Option period to buy 5%, ends.
01/11/23. Panorama mining rights expire.
Q4/23. Exploration decline and ventilation shafts complete.
Q1/24. Sub Level Open Stoping (SLOS) construction commences.
FY24. SLOS first Ore. First cash flow.
Q2/24. First production of Gold/Copper.
Q3/26. Block Underground Mine (BUM) construction begins (access and ventilation
shafts).
2028. BUM production. SLOS and Bulk Mining operating in tandem).
2035. Stoping estimated end of life based on:(26Mt/2.9MozAuEq/3Mt/yr).
2053+. BUM estimated end of life.

*MRE(2 For extended SE Crescent and breccia / N. breccia. To include updated (Indicated).

Z

Penny just dropped!
Apols
Amendment incoming.
Z

footnote 18:
"...Newcrest intends to issue an updated Group Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves statement as at 30 June 2022 with its Full Year Financial Results, which will include a revised Mineral Resource estimate for Havieron..."
Z

Hi TT. When I look at NCM's diary dates for '22 it says August for the full year results. This is what I had in my roadmap for months, but the latest link you sent about the BMO presentation shows under 'footnote 2' that the full years results is now June 30th - no?

Z

Page 7 (below link) shows Havieron to be currently a Tier 2 mine (in grey).
As Bamps said earlier, the MRE2 should/could upgrade it to its rightful place: Tier 1.

https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2022-02/220228_Newcrest%20BMO%20Global%20Metals%20%26%20Mining%20Conference%20-%20Presentation.pdf

Footnote 3: Tier 1 asset defined as potential for >300kozpa Au at 15 years (preferred) and significant resource or exploration upside likely. Tier 2 asset defined as potential for >200kozpa Au at 10 years (preferred) and moderate resource or exploration upside likely.

Z

March 2022. HAVIERON
14/05/21. Decline commences. (460m deep / 3km long).
15/07/21. Mine officially open.
Q4/21. Growth drilling continues. 120,000m between June ’21 and July ‘22.
12/21. Scallywag assays overdue.
Q1/22. GGP ESG report due.
02/22. 5% valuation initial agreement date.
11/03/22. NCM March Interim Exploration Report. GGP interim report.
8 assays pending. (GGP: 2 assays pending @ Zipa).
27/04/22. NCM March quarterly results. GGP Term sheets?
30/06/22. NCM Full Year results / MR&OR update / MRE2*.
Q4/22. Drilling commences @ Ernest Giles.
08/07/22. Bromus mining rights expire.
20/07/22. NCM June quarterly results.
27/10/22. NCM quarterly results.
02/11/22. GGP Annual Report.
Q4/22. D.F.S. Decision to Bulk Mine the Crescent Zone only (as a JV) by NCM / GGP.
[NCM loan of $50m runs out on completion of DFS].
[Decision to mine will result in payment of 145m shares to Pacific Trends
Resources].
Q4/22. Bulk Mine decline commences. [750m deep / 6km long].
10/22. Byrnecut contract for first decline terminates.
12/22. Option period to buy 5%, ends.
01/11/23. Panorama mining rights expire.
Q4/23. Exploration decline and ventilation shafts complete.
Q1/24. Sub Level Open Stoping (SLOS) construction commences.
FY24. SLOS first Ore. First cash flow.
Q2/24. First production of Gold/Copper.
Q3/26. Block Underground Mine (BUM) construction begins (access and ventilation
shafts).
2028. BUM production. SLOS and Bulk Mining operating in tandem).
2035. Stoping estimated end of life based on:(26Mt/2.9MozAuEq/3Mt/yr).
2053+. BUM estimated end of life.

*MRE(2 For extended SE Crescent and breccia / N. breccia. To include updated (Indicated).

Z

The NCM 2022 dates are subject to change. NCM warn of this in their main website footnotes. And this has happened now, regarding the Full years annual results date moving from 18th August to 30th June.
Secondly, the presentation that SB will be giving shortly reflect all the changes he made in his recent report. Namely that the going is tough regarding the decline and he has pushed back "first ore" and "first production". It is, as expected now looking like late 2023 before the decline completes. Byrnecut will simply apply for a renewal of its contract(s).

The "great" news is that the MRE2 is going to happen much sooner than the suspected end of this year. This will allay all fears that GGP was 'robbed'.
The 120km of drilling plannned for June 2021 to July 2022 will show up in the MRE2 but I suspect with a cut off date around March/April of this year.
IMO, SB and SD have spoken and SD has convinced SB that the publication of the next mre is essential before the end of this year.
Thanks TT for the heads up links.

Roadmap to follow
Z