Member Info for zoros

Starbright - elequently explained and a big thanks from me anyway for airing your views.
I agree with McIlroy that the most basic of maths suggests £100m. But ever since the latest face to face with SD, gloom has permeated the 5% issue. Whtat have we missed / what has changed?
Out of naivity - what are the three factors never to be discussed on here!
Best
Z

Morning MFU, hope you are well.
Indeed, the mysteries of the AiM run deep!
@ GGP...200km of drilling thus far flagging up 6.5MozAuEq and yet....
@ Solg....20Km drilling in Ecuador producing some of the greatest copper gold porphory intercepts in mining history and so far: 21.7 Moz Au, 9.9Mt Cu, 92.2Moz Ag and they haven't even got a PFS out yet!!
There are several on here who invest in both. I have been with Solg since 2013 and the wait is excruciating! It will be some time still before they start producing.
I'm not sure one can compare apples with apples here, though. Too many variables other than to simply compare drill distances. I won't bore you with these variables.

Homing in on GGP, the things that keeps me sane investing here, are the following:
1. My bicycle pump analogy. It is inexorable.
2. The amount of money that NCM are throwing at this and the time scale they are using.
3. A transparent and shareholder friendly CEO.
4. An exceptional bb.

I also need to occasionally remind myself that:
1. there are 4,200,000,000 shares out there!
2. GGP only own a third of the mine.

MFU - I am much more nervous about Solg, then I ever will be about GGP. Of all the mines in all the world, where better to be invested, eh?
Stay strong.
Z

Bamps, when it's time to pay the capex quota for the $269, the amount owed by GGP will only be 25% (not 30%) of this amount ($6 7m), no?

Z

A much happier board today, thanks to whoever - for cleaning up last nights troll attacks.
Here's the updated roadmap.
Best.

14/05/21. Decline commences. (460m deep / 3km long).
15/07/21. Mine officially open.
Q4/21. Growth drilling continues. 40,000m (Dec ‘21 to Jun ‘22 inc).
02/22. 5% valuation initial agreement date.
03/03/22. GGP MRE2 published. [5.5mozAu / 218ktCu: 6.5mozAuEq].
03/22. GGP ESG report due.
28/04/22. NCM March quarterly results. 10 assays pending. GGP Term sheets?
08/07/22. Bromus mining rights expire.
20/07/22. NCM June quarterly results.
18/08/22. NCM Full year results. To include MR&OR update up to 30/6. (NCM mre2?)
10/22. Byrnecut contract for first decline terminates.
27/10/22. NCM quarterly results.
02/11/22. GGP Annual Report. (KPI’s for SD’s 12m share option).
Q4/22. D.F.S. Decision to Bulk Mine (as a JV) by NCM / GGP.*
[NCM loan of $50m runs out on completion of DFS].
Q4/22. Bulk Mine decline commences. [750m+ deep / 6km long].
15/12/22. NCM option period to buy 5% at FMV, ends.
01/11/23. Panorama mining rights expire.
2023. Drilling commences @ Ernest Giles.
Q4/23. Exploration decline and ventilation shafts complete.
FY24. (07/23 to 06/24 inc). SLOS first Ore. First cash flow.
Q1/24. Sub Level Open Stoping (SLOS) construction commences.
Q2/24. First bulk production of Gold/Copper.
[Est production profile over 10 yrs: 25mt@3gAu/t / 0.44%cu] [2.4MozAu/109ktCu].
Q3/26. Bulk Underground Mine (BUM) construction begins (access and ventilation shafts).
2028. BUM production. (SLOS and Bulk Mining operating in tandem).
2036. SLOS estimated end of life based on: (4.2MozAuEq / 3Mt/yr / 12 years).
2053+. BUM estimated end of life.

* If there is a decision to mine as a JV @ the DFS or the 5% FMV is agreed (whichever is
first), it will result in payment of 145m shares to Pacific Trends Resources].

Z

I was comfortable with my calcs (before all this feedback from SD at the london meeting.
At the end of the day SD brought home a 2.9Moz Ore Reserve based on a December 5th MRE2. This falls within the catchment window for FMV negotiations IMO. (This is why SD resurrected the MRE2, I suggest).
2.9Moz of actual gold reserve makes 5% worth a minimum of £100m at todays rates. Not taking anything else into account. This would pay for the $123 current debt contingency on GGP. Giving us a free ride to production from the starter mine.
But now I'm detecting 'negative sentiment' from GGPHQ that the JV agreement is more stringent than expected.
It is what SD is 'not' saying that makes me think the reason he is unhappy with the original contract in this particular area is because he feels that GGP may be handing over 5% of the ENTIRE mine......for peanuts. And he is duty bound to within narrow margins.
I guess the true figure is buried in the Valmin calcs if anyone can be bothered to drill down deep enough because this is what the arbitor will be using for their calcs.
As a couple of posters have just stated, SD will do his best for us to realise FMV - of that I am reassured, but it still doesn't rest easy.
I shall await the outcome sometime between June and September, with some trepidation.
Let's hope this is the last buried legacy from GH.
Z

klgood1 - This was mentioned yesterday. The CEO of any listed company has better things to do than worry about the SP. In the case of GGP, surely you could list a host of things SD is occupied with that probably keeps him awake at night? Worrying about the SP is not one of them.
What is more important to a CEO: the future prospects of his company, or the short term gain of some of his shareholders?
Getting back to your personal anxiety over the current SP. Forget about it. Pop in now and again for a nosey, assured that production is getting closer and closer. Your decision to invest was a good one. If you have done your dd, what's the problem?....enjoy the ride and forget about the bumps in the road, en route.
Z

Pottersfield - sorry, I don't follow. Why is Rishi a p**ck? Do you know him personally?
Z

CD - you mean Norways Trillion dollar fund.
Z

Thanks for doing the biz, JS.
Z

petejh - your 1941 post as of 30th Jan:
"....Add on some figure for 'other exploration targets' within the Hav license, and 'perhaps' a small resource growth royalty. For a total value in the region of $150-$200m or £110-£150m...."
This was before the MRE2 upgrade.
And today AFTER THE MRE2:

"...and I think an amount under $100m for the 5% is quite likely now..."

You're all over the place sunshine.
And as VS stated, you've made yourself look even more stupid labelling everyone as ludicrous.

Atleast stay consistent..........if not up to speed.

antigua - in that case the 5% has to start @ £260m.
Z

IF..........IF as SD hinted, the 5% is based solely on the PFS only, then @ 4.2MozAuEq and @ £800/oz profit after aisc, then the value for 5% of Hav = £168m or $220m as the brokers have stated.
Z

TT I have sent the query to JS at the lunchtime meeting. Hopefully he will read it in time.
Best
Z

You have been in dialogue with so many of your contacts @ Solg, for the last 'x' years, yet............................FA has happened.
What do you talk about: Your wifes shares?
Z

MFU - bang on!
We have a unique boss in SD (even though the lSE facilitator incorrectly called SD an MD rather than a CEO?).
Admittedly Shaun confirmed the reason for his visit was to speak to II's (and PI's), he makes the effort to go the extra mile to keep us informed. We are blessed with his presence, methinks.
Key points for me:
1.MRE2 (courtesy GGP) shows an 88% uprate of the PFS resource. The MRE cross section compared to the PFS cross section, "lit up like a christmas tree".
Something GGP knew needed advertising and will most definitely need to be considered in the 5% FMV.
2. Au g/m (ounces per metre depth), "stunning". The mine is in the top 10 in the world for this concentration of gold. Normally seen over 2 to 3km strikes but all found in just 650m here @ Hav.
3. SD not an advocate of losing the additional 5% but (within the confines of the JV rules) he will not go quietly!
4. Very diplomatic businessman (wrt to SB).
5. Pacific Trend not an issue.
6. SLOS now pushed out another year (to 12 years).
7. He mentioned GGP now transitioning to being a "producer".
8. Scally might be up for offers to NCM under a future JV (ish) if something comes of it.
9. Ernest Giles - has historical potential and looks promising for the future.

Very encouraging interview and a big thank you to him and his team for keeping us informed.
Z

As per Starbright's 0957 post:
"...The end state however is unchanged. All competent investors will have been using the fully diluted SII in any case..."
This appears to be the case. 4.2bn shares in the SII. Pacific Trend is a part of that.
SD stated in his webcast that this was a "storm in a tea cup" and nothing to get worked up over.
The actual delivery date for payment of the 145m shares does however need to be clarified as per TT's concerns. Up until todays interim report, the only reference does seem to have been "on completion of the DFS and a decision to go mining has been made".
Pronting error by admin - if you ask me.
Z
Z

Ha! I meant £65million/yr not £65/yr.
I also forgot to mention that ALL these figures are based on the PFS which I know is waaaaaay out of date. But I can only work on figures which NCM push out.
We all know what multiples we would like to add to that - at the rate the resource is proving up, don't we?
Wall to wall blue sky........going cycling for the rest of the day. Work can wait!
Now where did I leave that bicycle pump?
Z

The dividend is a long way off, I suspect.
Let's look at figures:
GGP gets say £100m for their 5%. That pays off their debt to NCM.
Using NCM's maths @ 317kozAuEq/year for 10 years from this starter mine, gives GGP: £65/year income (on average, each year for the life of the starter mine).
In 2028 (if GGP@Hav still exists), the BUM goes to production. GGP needs approx £400m to join the party. In return it can expect an additional £130m/yr from the BUM, gross total: £200/yr until the starter mine ends around 2034 when income would hover around £130 - £150m/yr until 2053+.
I assume the £400 loan sheet will be around Libor+5%, maybe more. That in itself is £30m/yr in interest only never mind capital repayments. (SOFR is replacing Libor).
{Above based on PoG: $1800 / aisc: $700 / 3mt/yr from SLOS / 6mt+/yr from BUM / Copper included / profits are gross}
So I suspect divis may come into play around 2029+

Z

Q's sent.
Regards
Z

Do you have a question for SD?
Z