Member Info for zoros

RK - so glad you’ve left instructions during your absence otherwise many of us would have become most anxious indeed. And thanks for keeping in touch while you’re away.
Z

Novice- what happened to your 55p?
Z

What happened to him?
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Onthebottomrung - what would you like to chat about during these quiet periods?
Z

Hydro
Still haven’t answered y question.
Why do you wait for the SP to dip at the 5% result before you buy your iSA if you think it’s worth $200m
Z

Oh…….
Z

Costa, morning.
Can you translate for an irk such as me please:
“… wonder if thats why there is a PITSO situation developing somewhere. They have dropped a few Shombs today (Signatures eh) ... But they had to right. I wonder if they seen the outside bar and did notice the continuation D and didn't want risk it.…”
Z

Morning hydrogen, what’s Tasmania like this morning?
I’m back in Malaga for this month. The region is covered in orange dust and sand everywhere!
Picking up on your post…. You’re expecting a drop in the SP it seems when the 5% results Are out. Why do you think that after you have suggested frequently that you expect around $200m for it?
The markets would love that figure if it happened.
Z

IF there is seismic activity after the PFS.....IF,
then it has to be either a JV or a bid for Cascabel (warts and all (CGP)). Who in their right mind would buy 75 tenements of which only 3 have any traction over such a vast topography and in a dodgy political arena in Ecuador.
Alpala is a known known, it is a "dead cert". Pay up and reap the benefits. To fork out additional hundreds of millions for what could be countless 'dusters' over the coming years, would be a nightmare.
Buy out Cascabel, pay the £3.5m to get hold of CGP's portion when they can't pay their dues and revel in the profits forthcoming for 50+yrs. Job done.
JV / bid must surely be the way fwd?
Z

Decency does prevail on this platform. Thank you God.
LSE have eventually seen the light - thank you LSE.
We now know sludge to be Miagi who bombed the site for a while before melting away as usual.
His TOR activities have been tried before and failed but atleast he is now "a fugitive" and will forever remain so. He no longer has a formal voice on here, we shall see to that.
Mmmm, I love that squdigy feeling when you purposefully crush a slug underfoot......

Let Solg business resume............

You're welcome.
Z

what's brewing:
A JV offer.
A bid.
A brilliant PFS.

Any of you so called experts have any ideas?

CD - respect for your posts today.
Z

steady there amigo. I am comfortable in my own skin thank you, don't need another alias to counter the likes of you. Let's see you deal with buddy/baddy as a separate entity.....can you do that? Can you cope?
Z

Good array of topics this am.
5% FMV negotiations.
Well and truly done to death I would suggest. If anyone out there still doesn't understand it, perhaps they best stick their fingers in their ears and sing out loud for a while!
Some say a rerate upwards if the reward is sufficent. Others think the loss of 5% of the remaining 30% will drop the SP. It is but a bump in the road.
ESG
Report overdue. Finishing touches these last few days and then out to market for the I.I's.

Next update
28/04/22. NCM March quarterly results. 10 assays pending. GGP RNS next day and perhaps Term sheets?

Decline
As Chester18 states, there is a possibility that the permian layer will have been penetrated by end of April (ish) and then good old country rock arrives giving Byrnecut the traction they need. Based on Byrnecuts average expected dig rate/month of 155m. It would seem feasible that the top of the ore will be reached by Jan 2024. This has been confirmed by SD and SB, now (they quote: latter half of FY2024).

First Ore
Will then follow, commencing the moment we have all been waiting for - INCOME!
Bamps continues to be our "rock" in all things geological. His enthusiasm "permeates" all "layers" and is worth its weight in "gold". I expect him to "process" m-"ore" information as he "digs" deeper for additional "material".
I think that by early 2024, PoG/Cu/Co/Ni will be that much higher relative to operating costs (aisc/recovery costs/processing rates/toll rates), providing even more profit. Above all, the IRR should continue to rise and we are already at an expected 27%! VERY attractive to I.I's.

Finally - As CostaMooney pointed out: This is a good board, the vast majority of contributors mean well, they bring a lot of intel to the attention of others who rely on every snippet of news to make their investment work hard. There are a tiny minority who are either malicious by nature or 'professionally visiting'...these individuals serve to drip feed doubt into the minds of those investors who are sitting on the fence with GGP. Information is power....dyor and understand the product as best you can and you will never be accused of being naive or ignorant by those close to you. The countdown is now in months, not years.

We could be entering a period of quiescence between now and the next big shout (NCM August 2022 - MRE3?)(Notwithstanding GGP's 6 weekly updates). Could become quiet here - let's try not to resort to bickering and sniping during this period, as has happened on several boards elsewhere.
Long and Strong.
Z

His IQ or his shareholding?
Z

Buddy - well said and a great overview of what has happened here. Copperpot is OK, the zit to watch for is covgaz (slugs side kick).
Z

Dip666 - of course, I should have remembered it was you who brought the detail of ValMin to our attention weeks agio - couldn't recall who it was. sorry!
Exactly - ValMin allows for little or no movement in the calibration of value. It bases itself on a point in time / ore reserve / "yardstick" valuations across the market.
It is the reason why NCM chose to withold the MRE2.
Z

The Doors is right. The remaining 25% is in no way, shape or form, related to the fmv for the 5%.
IF the time comes to sell the remainder of GGP@Hav, the sale price will be an exponential equivalent indeed!
Z

I'm the first to be conservative about GGP in its predictions. In fact several have called me out on this, frequently, as one who puts a negative spin on the big picture. I stick to my guns on my overview - believing this approach limits any negativity that may eventaully surface.
Recently, I dropped my guard when it came to the 5% FMV issue....and for that I wish to apologise.
I tried to "make the figures fit" quoting between £100m and £175m, derived from PoG/aisc/recovery rates, etc etc.
Last month, SD showed signs on his webinar (followed up by reports from posters who attended) that he was unhappy with the JV arrangement for the 5% fmv deal. His positive spin suggested that he inherited it as one of the last vestiges of GH's reign and by putting it behind them, they could crack on with a very promising future @ Hav.
Now I have had time to read through the Valmin code together with examples of recent Valmin reports https://www.srk.com/api/search?q=VALMIN&l=en I have come to the conclusion that my calculations were excessive and unrealistic.
My current maths more readily align with what I believe SD was 'suggesting' would be closer to the truth... and that is..... the outcome *should* be enough to cover the $50m debt owed to NCM (and not much more).
SD went on to 'infer' (not say) that the remaining outstanding debt to NCM ( $73m) would need to be covered by bank debt arrangements which he is currently arranging.
IMO, NCM were well aware of the parameters that a ValMin report provided and therefore wished it to be based solely on the PFS. The issuance of a GGPMRE2 by SD was critical and timely for the 5% negotiations, otherwise the outcome would have been derisory indeed!
For those who based any faith in my original calcs - I humbly apologise once more and will promise to do better in future.
Respectfully,
Z

out this week, probably thursday. A "must have" for I.I.'s.

https://www.whitecase.com/publications/insight/mining-metals-2022-esg-and-energy-transition-sectors-biggest-opportunity

Z

Evening LBA,
I think, to be fair, we are somewhere in between your calcs and petejh.
The entire 1.2bn tonnes cannot be mined.
The Bulk underground mine will probably be limited to an extraction rate of 20mt/yr if BOTH trains are used @ Telfer, notwithstanding any expansion mods. This means even if only half of the motherlode is mined (600mt), there will still be 30+yrs to be mined. Just that the annual income will be limited to this amount.
Then there is the copper plus any other PM's, BM's. PoG in the future. Cheaper extraction costs with a BUM.
Don't forget dilution and discount factors.

And so it all goes on.

What we DO KNOW is all about the starter mine:
Capex and loan: $123m. Paid for mostly by the 5%?
Using NCM's averaging of 317kt/yr from the SLOS, gives us approx £65/yr. 12 years.

The Bulk Mine is a different beast.
The BUM will cost around $1.5Bn for starters.
Bigger extraction rates. Say 11 or 12mt to start with, working up from there.
Cheaper aisc's.
I can see easily £100m/yr from this, and for around 8+ yrs the SLOS and BUM will be producing in tandem (but still limited by telfers processing capacity). Maybe a max output of 20mt/yr at some stage??
But we need to contribute, maybe up to $500m. This is where his term sheets come in and the debt repayments Vs income for the following "X" yrs.

I'm still from the 'school of bids' for GGP's share @ Hav at or around the DFS so the bulk underground mine isn't really on my radar just yet.

Food for thought.
Z