Only £1?4 Mar 2022 20:12
Let's just ponder over that for a moment, see where it takes us?
A £1 accepted bid would cost the buyer (presumably NCM), £4.2Bn! Now there is no way NCM shareholders will allow that to happen. It would value the mine at £12.6Bn when there isn't enough gold down there to justify it at the time of the bid.
NOT going to happen. NCM don't have that sort of cash lying around especially after a recent (mid '21) debt raise of $2Bn. A £1 bid rates Hav @ 17Moz,
Likely? Of course it is....but not for a wee while yet, probably a couple more years of digging.
SB now knows the clock is ticking, in fact SD has snuck up and moved the hands fwd after publishing this sneaky MRE2. The longer SB leaves it, the more painful the payout.
So when might he strike for a bid?
2 of the brokers are now quoting 25p ish for around the DFS time with 6.5Moz in the bag plus maybe a bit more incoming before then. Remember, their 25p for GGP sounds small but you need to remind yourself that GGP only owns 25% of the mine at the time of the DFS.
He could put a bid in for 25p this December just before the DFS, PLUS a premium.
Looking at recent take overs, the biggest premium I have seen is an additional 70% on top. That makes the bid 42p+. How many on here would bite his hand off for that ?????
The alternative, if the bid is rejected is to wait another 18 months + before production commences at which time the SP (hopefully) will have crept up as each MRE arrives to somewhere around where? Will it be north of 42p? Will the debt sheets require dilution or consolidation or direct payments taken out of the annual income driving profits lower until such time the debt is repaid? Or will the SP be strong and in addition when will the dividends kick in?
So would "you" take the 42p this year or wait it out and hope that it will be north of that in late 2024, when you will then sell or stay and enjoy the divis?
I know it is difficult to determine but I wonder how many PI's would sell @ 40p+ and move on, compared to waiting another 18months plus?
Decisions, decisions..................
Z