RE: Sd got thrown under the bus.18 Feb 2022 12:33
Knocky - good to hear from you after such a while.
For those who don't know him, he is in the top five when it comes to size of shareholding (coach/dimvestor and JS et al).
Dust still settling and in so doing, some cracking posts to be fair, covering everyone from the forlorn to the sanguine.
What to make of it all?
Firstly, SD HAS to respond to shareholders in the coming days/weeks regarding our situation. He has to.
Secondly, I still feel some resource update will come from NCM before the end of Q1/22, as per my roadmap.
Longer term...........................
I would definitely put knocky's theory up there on the menu, for consideration.
I would also remind myself that SD is an M&A guy and his experience suggests he will do his best to defend GGP. By this I mean...get the 'best' price under the circumstances.
So, IMO: Company's like GGP don't do too well in these situations (minnow trying to hold onto a fraction of a large resource). SD knows the writing is on the wall. Probably knew months and months ago. All seemed well to him until recently, when last night then happened. Now, he has to 'up his act' and improvise to maximise shareholder value in the glare of the sale of GGP's Hav share.
I have said time and again......what is the purpose of GGP once we go to production? Why would a major carry a minnow who is unable to offer anything towards the future mine @ Hav?
Can anyone answer this question satisfactorily?
So NCM (or any major) will want their (non contributing) junior partner out of the way soonest. And I think we are beginning to see this happenning now. [I actually felt NCM were planning for this way back].
SD options:
1. Hope for a good bid for the 5% from NCM shortly and get back into bed with NCM. Unlikely.
2. Go for prolonged arbitration while further resource updates arrive. Possible, because the longer this drags on, the more the pressure builds on NCM to provide results.
3. Complete his term sheets, arrange debt loans and make out GGP is in it for the long term, so that when NCM tells GGP (At the FS stage) they need half a billion to stay in the JV to build the BUM, GGP can say: OK! By then we WILL have received the DFS with all the resource updates and more - calling NCM's bluff forcing them to reassess their valuations.
4. SD can 'make noises' that he is touting for business from other majors, for the remaining 25%. But this really would poke the big bear (SB) in the ey with a sharp stick, methinks!
Remember, SB is officially a bully. He has admitted to it. On face value he will change towards his immediate employees but there's not a chance in hell he will change his business acumen which has stood him in good stead for so long.
He sees the likes of SD as victims. SD now has to confront this head on.
On the other hand, MRE2 could land tomorrow!
Z