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I am strongly encouraged again by the way the Board has informed the market of news this morning. This is a thorough and confidence-building update to the market which is goin gout of its way to try to answer as many questions as may be anticipated as coming from PI's. The discovery is excellent news. More importantly the seismic interpretation, which was in some doubt in some minds, must give greater confidence to PI's. Wioth the rig operator deferring payment, this is a hugely confidence-building moment and I believe transformational for i3E whatever may arise from the next drill.
Personal thanks from me to BBN who shored up my wavering confidence through detailed insights. I would be less fully invested without his insights.
Happy to ficus on the positives of repeated buying. We always knew that until 7E is signed off the sp would be managed down for the benefit of those acquiring shares at sign-off. I'm sure many PI's (including myself) have taken advantage of the suppressed sp to buy prior to completion. Not long to wait now.
BigBiteNow
Can I confirm that when you said - ‘However, right now the existence of a geological sidetrack on a 'exploration' drill is pointing now towards a drill that has missed its target.... the word 'now' should have said 'not'? That would be my interpretation of the logic in your comments.
From what I can see, it is morte likely than not that oil is there but commerciality cannot be known until results are published and tests are done. Even to say that is speculation but it is the most prbable view imho. Very good chance we'll find out more tomorrow.
I also hope for an update on L2 this week given that we've had a few weeks since the initial outcome was reported.
My main concern with TXP is not the quality of management (very happy there) or the assets (looks strong across the board) or even the tax regime (not good but profitable nonetheless as long as Brent stays at a decent level) - it is where are we going to find new investors to buy into this story, which is a positive one in my view. Liquidity and risk appetitie are low just now so I am just encouraging patience all round as we will see value reflected in the sp at some point. It m ay even have been rossannan who made the new investor point and if so thanks for that. It is important thought to take a balanced view of the positive and negative and always re-visit. I enjopy challenge to my views but not repeated points which have already been debated - that just clogs up the Boards. Signing off for now - GLA.
I don't know aboiut others but I am getting fed up heariung the same negative conversation about funding and placing for weeks on end. Either you trust Paul and the team and invest or go away and invest elsewhere. To repeat myself, Royston will be delayed by a quarter (in 2020) if needed (according to Paul) if Brent prices don't allow earlier drilling. There is cash for Casca and Chinook. If Coho and Casca are a success a tactical placing may be possible to accelerate future development drilling and in my view that would be a very good thing. It's obvious that after significant buying yesterday and minimal selling today that the MM's are happy to keep the sp down just now. It's only 1-2 weeks for results and I am happy to have added c80k shares earlier in the week. Good luck to all!
nen2319 Agreed. I think it is a great prospect with cash generation funding exploration but the AIM market is there to make profits for the MM's and not PI's. Still, news should be here by the end of next week - not sure it's this week, but it is coming.
Interestingly for most of Friday and all of today there are no MM's offering any shares inside the official offer price (currently 22.9p). Only allowinmg buying of smaller quantities unless you are willing to pay outside the offer. We seem to be in a holding period just waiting for upside news. This is a very positive time to hold SAVP.
PB mentioned that TD for Casca would be by 31 October and that the 1st flow test results would be ready a week from today but there are 2 intervals being tested so may be another week for results. I think ressults any tiome from early next week though more likely the following week.
From Paul's interview comments it sounded to me like Casca and CHinook were funded and if there was an issue with Brent prices oover the next few months Royston may be pushed back a quarter. If there is any additional equity required I suspect it will be linked to Royston next year and not imminent. HOwever I trust Paul on the timing and thinking on this and woyuld expect him to take a longer-term view than just the next 6 months - ie to be looking at least 2 years ahead and including new Heritage well development next year too whatever that turns out to look like.
A final thought from me. Given that MM's have been keen to keep the sp under control and sit on it lately I would not be at all surprised if there was an early morning push down providing a buying opportunity for a short period. Call me cynical and I may be wrong but we'll see!
Looking back at AK's interview on 30 Sept he said that he was 'very confident' that 7E would complete, that issues were 'mostly procedural' and that 'liquidity to get to 7E close was straightforward to finance through incremental loan notes as required' (also said this at AGM I understand), and that there are 'no significant barriers to get this transaction closed' - just timing issues as we have seen. I'm content with that degree of reassurance.
This RNS is exactly in line with what AK has said in recent months ie that SAVP would be able to access (and likely require) some debt funding (I think $10m was mentioned) if the 7E transaction concluded in Q4 whicih is still the 90%+ outcome as far as I am concerned. The interest rate is not high and reflects the minimal risk seen by the funder set against future cash flow prospects. Whilst as a shareholder I'd like the RTO completed today I remain relaxed about it completing in Q4. Some PI's may wobble but in my view I can't see areason to do this. 7E is still largely backed by World Bank and other guarantees and has had early sign-off in the new Presidency. Yet again more patience required!
As others have mentioned there is a vested interest for some in keeping the sp low prior to concluding 7E and the MM's are carefully managing the sp down just now as I can see through tracking their behaviour on RSP. This is in no way a reflection of the value on offer which is the same as it was last week and the week before. Won't be long for the debt restructure RNS then maybe a cou0ple of weeks for final sign-off. Some more patience required. As AK said a few weeks ago there is rich newsflow to come.
For those that say the 1st drill was a duster, it is worth re-reading the CEO's comments in the 30th Sept RNS as below. What is in question is not whether Liberator contains reserves but how much. We will find out soon enough.
'Though we were disappointed to have missed the targeted upper Captain sands with our first well 13/23c-9, our post-drill analysis incorporating data from the well confirms our view that Liberator is a material asset.'
It is clear that the substantial reduction in SP has been primarily caused by the exit of Miton and reduction on LO holdings which has generated fear amongst many PI's who have lost out in the recent sp decline. This story is not yet half-told. We have no definitive outcomes from any drill yet. The best option is simply to take a position and commit to it, either in or out. I have done that and don't really care what the sp journey is until then or if the sp is 10p or 30p on the day Serenity TD results come out. Those results will move the sp much more than frantic trading between now and then. I recommend staying calm and reading bvalanced posts such as BBN and others on this board provide. We are all responsible for our own investment decisions and if that causes too much anxiety it may be best to invest your cash in safer vehicles. Goood luck all.