Member Info for zeusfurla

From Paul's interview comments it sounded to me like Casca and CHinook were funded and if there was an issue with Brent prices oover the next few months Royston may be pushed back a quarter. If there is any additional equity required I suspect it will be linked to Royston next year and not imminent. HOwever I trust Paul on the timing and thinking on this and woyuld expect him to take a longer-term view than just the next 6 months - ie to be looking at least 2 years ahead and including new Heritage well development next year too whatever that turns out to look like.

A final thought from me. Given that MM's have been keen to keep the sp under control and sit on it lately I would not be at all surprised if there was an early morning push down providing a buying opportunity for a short period. Call me cynical and I may be wrong but we'll see!

Looking back at AK's interview on 30 Sept he said that he was 'very confident' that 7E would complete, that issues were 'mostly procedural' and that 'liquidity to get to 7E close was straightforward to finance through incremental loan notes as required' (also said this at AGM I understand), and that there are 'no significant barriers to get this transaction closed' - just timing issues as we have seen. I'm content with that degree of reassurance.

This RNS is exactly in line with what AK has said in recent months ie that SAVP would be able to access (and likely require) some debt funding (I think $10m was mentioned) if the 7E transaction concluded in Q4 whicih is still the 90%+ outcome as far as I am concerned. The interest rate is not high and reflects the minimal risk seen by the funder set against future cash flow prospects. Whilst as a shareholder I'd like the RTO completed today I remain relaxed about it completing in Q4. Some PI's may wobble but in my view I can't see areason to do this. 7E is still largely backed by World Bank and other guarantees and has had early sign-off in the new Presidency. Yet again more patience required!

It's possible but I am looking at 1st week in November but we could get an L2 update before then.

As others have mentioned there is a vested interest for some in keeping the sp low prior to concluding 7E and the MM's are carefully managing the sp down just now as I can see through tracking their behaviour on RSP. This is in no way a reflection of the value on offer which is the same as it was last week and the week before. Won't be long for the debt restructure RNS then maybe a cou0ple of weeks for final sign-off. Some more patience required. As AK said a few weeks ago there is rich newsflow to come.

For those that say the 1st drill was a duster, it is worth re-reading the CEO's comments in the 30th Sept RNS as below. What is in question is not whether Liberator contains reserves but how much. We will find out soon enough.

'Though we were disappointed to have missed the targeted upper Captain sands with our first well 13/23c-9, our post-drill analysis incorporating data from the well confirms our view that Liberator is a material asset.'

It is clear that the substantial reduction in SP has been primarily caused by the exit of Miton and reduction on LO holdings which has generated fear amongst many PI's who have lost out in the recent sp decline. This story is not yet half-told. We have no definitive outcomes from any drill yet. The best option is simply to take a position and commit to it, either in or out. I have done that and don't really care what the sp journey is until then or if the sp is 10p or 30p on the day Serenity TD results come out. Those results will move the sp much more than frantic trading between now and then. I recommend staying calm and reading bvalanced posts such as BBN and others on this board provide. We are all responsible for our own investment decisions and if that causes too much anxiety it may be best to invest your cash in safer vehicles. Goood luck all.

Having tracked RSP carefully on and off for a week or 2 I am not convinced there are any sells to publish (I could be wrong of course and someone could be selling down a larger volume). This just looks to me like Market Makers lining their own pockets by bcarefully nudging the bid and offer down through the day. Of course the start of day is always well below the close and with a wide spread - all to discourage trading at the moment I suspect.

I have considered making a referral to the FCA although that would have no effect but at least would make me feel better! SAVP needs to get off AIM soon if it wants to be seen as a big O&G player.

Sankeys and diversified NO doubt the sp ius currently being tightly controlled by MM's. For example you see a trade going through in the last 30 seconds prior to close to set an end point for the day sometimes at odd prices. The small value trades are distorting the end of day position to make it look like the sp is either rising or falling but even a cursory look at recent weeks trading would show strong buying from PI's - I'd extimate over 80% of discretionary PI trades are buys. The autotrade algorithms seem to be fighting each other for control on occasion. It looks like Winterflood has a degree of control over the sp but this is all short-term stuff. Once the deal closes I'd see significant upside. I also wonder if any of our II's are sitting on the sidelines waiting to top up. Even if the sp rose to 50p, the upside prospects particularly in Niger must be attractive to II's.

Not sure if there will be an operational update (doesn't really bother me) but as mentioned Paul did not include this in future news flow. Whether it is 1700 or 1800bopd does not impact the value of TXP as the sp has dropped so much and there is Coho-1 to add to the current figures. Current sentiment is poor though so anything not stellar is not liked by the market.

I got this in my inbox this morning on short position. News is getting around as we build up to 31 October.

'The level of disclosed Short Interest in BMN has changed materially.
Short Interest has moved from 0.67% on the previous trading day to 0.00% today. That is a movement of -0.67 percentage points.
Click here to see the full detail broken down by fund

This data is taken from the FCA and comprises all disclosed short positions above the 0.5% reporting threshold requirement.

Thanks,
The Research Tree team'

Swindon There have been a few odd days lately but I was pleased to see a couple of larger trades going through which partly explain the lack of sp rise following strong buying. What I noticed later today was that demand for 250k shares on RSP was strong and availability on the offer side for 250k shares seemed to be down a bit. It may be that some buying tomorrow/Friday could push the sp up a bit even without news. We'll see.

Paul mentioned last night that current proiduction was around 1800bopd (either side of this over time) and was pleased with that given declines and lack of development drilling. I'd be pleased if they can keep that close to 1800bopd to end year presumably with some workovers. On sp I'd expect a rise following confirmation of commerciality in the 600-800bopd range. Current sentiment though may limit this. We should really be nearer 20p just now but TXP is not the only commodity stock being badly hit. Just needs some patience.

Photo I am in but it doesn't seem to have started yet?

I make it 6,000 shares sold and 1,061,000 bought today yet the sp hasn't moved much. A very positive sign. MM's are still trying to push this lower for their own ends imho. A sign of strong sp growth to come on completion of 7E. I'm not expecting to see late published sells but who knows?

Given the timing of last year's quarterly update I am still expecting a similar update today. More selling again on LSE in the absence of recent news which seems madness to given given that we already know that Coho-1 is commercially viable. I bought some more yesterday.

Alexios Thanks - you are right. I picked up the wrong date from my notes. Around 20 days then or maybe less. Not long. I don't see the sp moving much before then but will move for sure on initial results.

shellguy Monday is 28 days from last RNS so it is possible although I seem to recall Paul saying it would be late October for Coho-a test results and Casca intial TD results. Timing is never certain and looking forward to an update next week. It has been painful sitting and watching the sp drift due to wider market sentiment. Prospects remain excellent here - I am confident of a good RNS next week.

On timing, it is worth noting that L2 pilot took 29 days from spud to initial result RNS. If similar time for Serenity, it will be start of November for TD result.

Sankeys I share your thoughts on short positions here. The market dynamic has changed this week and we may not see too much upward movement until completion. MM's today trying to close down interest with the wide spread c1.5p.