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Having tracked RSP carefully on and off for a week or 2 I am not convinced there are any sells to publish (I could be wrong of course and someone could be selling down a larger volume). This just looks to me like Market Makers lining their own pockets by bcarefully nudging the bid and offer down through the day. Of course the start of day is always well below the close and with a wide spread - all to discourage trading at the moment I suspect.
I have considered making a referral to the FCA although that would have no effect but at least would make me feel better! SAVP needs to get off AIM soon if it wants to be seen as a big O&G player.
Sankeys and diversified NO doubt the sp ius currently being tightly controlled by MM's. For example you see a trade going through in the last 30 seconds prior to close to set an end point for the day sometimes at odd prices. The small value trades are distorting the end of day position to make it look like the sp is either rising or falling but even a cursory look at recent weeks trading would show strong buying from PI's - I'd extimate over 80% of discretionary PI trades are buys. The autotrade algorithms seem to be fighting each other for control on occasion. It looks like Winterflood has a degree of control over the sp but this is all short-term stuff. Once the deal closes I'd see significant upside. I also wonder if any of our II's are sitting on the sidelines waiting to top up. Even if the sp rose to 50p, the upside prospects particularly in Niger must be attractive to II's.
Not sure if there will be an operational update (doesn't really bother me) but as mentioned Paul did not include this in future news flow. Whether it is 1700 or 1800bopd does not impact the value of TXP as the sp has dropped so much and there is Coho-1 to add to the current figures. Current sentiment is poor though so anything not stellar is not liked by the market.
I got this in my inbox this morning on short position. News is getting around as we build up to 31 October.
'The level of disclosed Short Interest in BMN has changed materially.
Short Interest has moved from 0.67% on the previous trading day to 0.00% today. That is a movement of -0.67 percentage points.
Click here to see the full detail broken down by fund
This data is taken from the FCA and comprises all disclosed short positions above the 0.5% reporting threshold requirement.
Thanks,
The Research Tree team'
Swindon There have been a few odd days lately but I was pleased to see a couple of larger trades going through which partly explain the lack of sp rise following strong buying. What I noticed later today was that demand for 250k shares on RSP was strong and availability on the offer side for 250k shares seemed to be down a bit. It may be that some buying tomorrow/Friday could push the sp up a bit even without news. We'll see.
Paul mentioned last night that current proiduction was around 1800bopd (either side of this over time) and was pleased with that given declines and lack of development drilling. I'd be pleased if they can keep that close to 1800bopd to end year presumably with some workovers. On sp I'd expect a rise following confirmation of commerciality in the 600-800bopd range. Current sentiment though may limit this. We should really be nearer 20p just now but TXP is not the only commodity stock being badly hit. Just needs some patience.
Photo I am in but it doesn't seem to have started yet?
I make it 6,000 shares sold and 1,061,000 bought today yet the sp hasn't moved much. A very positive sign. MM's are still trying to push this lower for their own ends imho. A sign of strong sp growth to come on completion of 7E. I'm not expecting to see late published sells but who knows?
Given the timing of last year's quarterly update I am still expecting a similar update today. More selling again on LSE in the absence of recent news which seems madness to given given that we already know that Coho-1 is commercially viable. I bought some more yesterday.
shellguy Monday is 28 days from last RNS so it is possible although I seem to recall Paul saying it would be late October for Coho-a test results and Casca intial TD results. Timing is never certain and looking forward to an update next week. It has been painful sitting and watching the sp drift due to wider market sentiment. Prospects remain excellent here - I am confident of a good RNS next week.
Sankeys I share your thoughts on short positions here. The market dynamic has changed this week and we may not see too much upward movement until completion. MM's today trying to close down interest with the wide spread c1.5p.
BBN Thanks for setting out very clearly and in detail once again your understanding of the current position regarding Liberator. I fully agree with you that the market has over-reacted. The main reason for this to my mind is the exit of Miton and part of the LO holding. No company could handle c10%+ of its shareholder base exiting within a week. This has impacted on shareholder confidence. It is important to note that risk appetitie amongst II's (Miton in particular) is much less than typically seen among PI's. The L2 pilot well result has reduced the likely available reserves from 21mmbbl to somewhere between 13 and 21mmbbl. We still have Serenity. I would have expected maybe a 20-30% drop in sp value but II selling has precipitated a larger fall. I feel the pain of this as acutley as others but this is only Part 1 of the I3E story. There are other chapters to come which on balance are likely to have better outcomes. Downside risk is maybe 10p in the short-term but much less than that (if any at all) as revised Phase 1 plans are finalised for the reserves that the compmany knows are there and already have junior debt in place for. Upside potential is substantially more than 10p - multiples of this. I can't put a figure on it but even at 30p+ this would still be a stand-out buy on a risk-reward basis.
SQ320 That is exactly my thoughts. Short-term sp is likely being driven by factors other than intrinsic value so we may see some volatility until 7E closure.
I don't want to clog up the board with short-term posts on trading so last one for now. Interesting to see opening bid topday at 22.55 and offer at 23.7. If my theory is right the MM's would have hoped that some PI's would have jumped in and sold given the 'panic' their drop in yesterday's sp induced. However they are still not dropping the offer much - at 23.7 is not much lower than most of trading yesterday. With such a wide spread I can't see many PI's selling at 22.62 (the current bid price). Enopugh from me. AIM market and self-interest of MM's is frustrating and not related to real value on offer.
The uncrossed trade at 22.4p at end of day also looks like it has been manufactured to give the impression that there is some background news pushing the sp down - which there is not. Best to hold firm - we know the news flow is coming.
The upside of new shares is that it provides funds for SAVP but of course there is the risk of early selling. Once the deal completes even with additional equity issued we should see an appreciateion based on the Hannam note.
Agadem
I've just looked back at end of day trades and by looking at thhe trade type you can see that 8 of these were standard makrket trades, all of which were buys. Almost all of the remainder were sells but there were using the 'A' type reported on LSE which means auto or algorithm trade where parameters are set by companies/PI's or even MM's to buy or sell at pre-set prices. It appears that someone (or more than 1) has set auto trades to sell when certain conditions are met likely to keep the sp down for their own purposes. I can only speculate what these are but can see from using RSP within L2 (the most detailed info you can get) that there is downward pressure being pu ton the sp for whatever reason.
I fully expect this to continue this morning and until further news arrives which pusehes the sp back up.
Just to restate my thoughts on this. The MM's have built up a short position in recent weeks as the sp appreciated from the low 20's (or even 18p) to 25p and have sold shares they didn't have (the normal practice). What's different is that we've seen sustained buying and little opportunity to drop the sp. Then an RNS comes along and the sp is crashed from 25p to 20p on little volume, causing some panic selling from PI's. The sp recovers but the short position remains as early selling on 20p day is completely offset by the end of trading by buying. I've seen this pattern in other shares. MM's will continue to push the sp down until they have the shares they need (at a lower price) to offset against their earlier sells. The risk for MM's as we know is that news has started to arrive and will continue in the coming weeks making it difficult to hold the sp down. We saw today an estimated 250k excess of buys over sells yet the sp dropped quite a bit. The selling was achieved through algo's and autotrades - we can't see who is doing this but sells were well timed to drop the sp and clear out the bid. Overall I remain highly confident that SAVP is going places and soon. MM's can't hold back the tide indefinitely.
An indicator of current PI confidence is that out of 25 trades today (excluding the majority which are auto-generated algorithm trades), 23 are buys and 2 are sells. Current PI sentiment is as you would expect - very positive. There are always reasons for selling and in particular for algo tradinmg which can be short-term in nature. I am happy to sit tight and wait for more news.