Member Info for zeusfurla

ross I tried to paste the bloomberg page and it was converted into a facebook post automatically. Josef talking up TXP's prospects for about a minute so a positive post.

Josef Schachter on Bloomberg recommending (and holding) TXP. I think he did the same a few weeks back and it spiked the sp in Toronto that day. Same again today a couple of cents up on virtually no volume? Could be news this week though more likely next.

No trades in the UK but plenty in Toronto.

Winterfloods (MM's) looking for 250k shares to buy from us at 21.5p a few minutes ago have now dropped the offer to 21.8p but only have 2500 shares to sell. They are clearly short of shares to sell. A good sign for next week.

shareinvestor I agree. Completing the 7E deal really was make or break for the company - a real binary outcome and it went the right way. A hugley significant decision for the company. A great sense of relief followed by excitment. I speak as an investor who held a while back and sold out at a loss - not much fun at the time. The market will see SAVP and its potential in time but now is the time to build a decent stake when it is relatively quiet. II's may return for a further piece of the action at some point too.

sankeys I agree. Risk almost all to the upside. Wider market sentiment has held this back a bit but a bit of buying pressure today moved the offer up so it wouldn't take much to keep a gentle rise going over the next few weeks which is fine by me.

Ninja I don't think you'll find a bookie who will give you odds on that!

MM's spiking sp up on low volume pre-spud. Either a buying opportunity or beware the Miton sells tomorrow.

It looks like there were some sells being worked today after all - around c3m, still not enough to cover yesterday's buys. The sp is beginning to rise a little - the sells may have cleared for now allowing a slow rise?

dnd There is a 95% chance of commercial success on a 50% increase in company output from the first drill alone - and that is at the low estimate. The best estimate approx doubles this to double company output overall. And the 2nd drill will follow within a month or so.

On drilling times I don't think it is an exact science. Paul mentioned in June that he expected 20-25 days for the 1st drill to complete and the RNS mentioned 28 days. I'd expect the RNS to be a cautious outside figure given Paul's style of reporting to the market ie 28 days is the max. I'm sticking to my range which is next Monday 26/8 to Tuesday 3/9 with an RNS within a very short period of completion.

I doubt the sp here will drift down much. There are a few potential catalysts relating to Niger as well as 7E to come in the near future. I have bought more today. Agree Trek that insto's have not been buying but given a few days that coud change/ Even if not the short-term upside remains over the next couple of months.

Interesting to watch the behaviour of the Market Makers on RSP this morning. Despite strong buying (though less than yesterday) they are working in unison to try and drive the sp down. Why? Because they sold millions of shares yesterday that they don't have and want to get from PI's at lower prices to make money. As long as PI's keep buying today and the sells remain as few as they have been this fake drop in sp can't go on. Likely to be in the 20s by next week imho. Today to date we have 900k buys and 550k sells including the latest 300k sell. Looking very healthy.

After strong buying start to the day the MM's are trying to squeeze the bid and offer down as they don't have stock to sell and will try and persuade a few holders to give up their shares.

nosugar Paul has mentioned that there are a considerable number of potential wells out there above the number I mentioned if their proof of concept works. I'm sure he said could be 200-300 over many years so not short of options but don't have the cash to take many forward at present. On politics I am sure there are good online sources of information out there - not an area I know much about.

Andre01 I was tracking the MM's on RSP most of the afternoon. They are desperate to hold this down - they have sold stock they don't have and will need to get it from somewhere. Lowish volumes on the offer - I'd expect than sp on Friday to be higher than it ended today. I'm glad I went through so much pain (twice) holding as it went down. Still not blue but less red which is a start!

I've just gone back through my notes from Paul's Valuethemarket interview on 2 May, his presentation on 15 May and proactive investors on 18 June. Lots of valuable info in there. Links will be online somewhere or in past postings on this board.
As far as I can see there are 2 drills going ahead - Coho 1 and Cascadura 1 at a cost of c$3m each, then Royston to follow possibly Q1 2020 at c$5.5m. I see reference to 4 exporation prospects but only 3 drills. Paul seems to mention 4 drills in his proactiveinvestors interview but isn't specific about this. Either of 1st 2 drills could increase output by c2000 boepd (Royston much more than this if successful). Coho 1 is proof of concept. Coho-1 likely to increase output by c 1000boepd within 6 months (95%). If Cascadura is successful there are 10-15 additional wells planned there - so it'snot just about Coho-1. On 2 May Paul estimated drilling of Coho 1 would take 20-25 days so be warned - it may be quicker than the 28 days in the RNS ie we could see inital results next Monday rather than the following week.
There could be 30+ follow-up drills if proof of concept is achieved at Coho or Cascadura - lots of upside. Paul aimed for year end production without Ortoire of c2500 bopd - with Heritage announcement on Touchstone selected drills expected in Sept/Oct. I think 2500bopd may be a stretch too far but would expect output over 2000 bopd by Dec 2019 without Ortiore. Paul said that it would take c6 months to get Coho flowing to its max output so next March possibly rather than year end? Although Cascadura is ready to flow it would also take a short period to get up and running. If drilling there ends by early October there may be some oil by Dec 2019. Always best to err on the cautious side. It doesn't really matter though if drill results are good. SPT/tax changes are hoped for in 2020 but no guarantees. c35 days to prepare/drill Coho and Cascadura - c45-60 days for Royston. Royston could contain 1/4 tcf or even 1/2 tcf of gas (that's over 40000boepd as I calculate it).
Paul finished up by saying there are plenty more anomalies to be drilled over the next 5 years - you can't say he hasn't got a vision for Touchstone. However we need to see Coho and/or Cascadura deliver then this company could really grow quite quickly.

Trek Tax not a surprise as creditors paymentrs mentioned in RNS although amount wasn't.

happy I've just been looking for the same thing - I am sure I saw 1 month to completion. All I found was an earlier RNS which said 7E completes by 31 Jan and transaction by end Q1 so a max of 2 months. My recollection is there is no real risk now - good to go. 15-16p isw way too conservative imho. Looking forward to reversing some losses today!

Many thanks to Stacey Gundersen at Touchstone for responding so quiickly to the 2 questions I posed a day or 2 back. Positive responses to both, in particular confirming the 2nd drill will follow on from the 1st.

1) Can you confirm that this is still the company’s intention to drill the 2nd well at Cascadura immediately following Coho-1?
'Yes we are going to drill the second well as soon as we are off of COHO-1.'
2) Can you advise if Capex costs relating to Cascadura can be offset against SPT and when this will occur?
'In regards to your second question, some of the Capex costs will offset SPT in Q4.'

Gizzy You got a good eal there - now recovered to 22c.