Member Info for zeusfurla

Like AIM, the fall in Toronto came after low volume - 85k sells ie c£10k. We know that TXP moves up anbd down quickly on low volume. Will rise pre drill results I suspect.

I couldn't resist at 12.7 and 12.8. Was already overweight here and now more so but I re-read the geo's report and we can't forget Cascadura as well as Coho - also 95% CoS. Investors taking far too short term a view in TXP. Only need to look ahead 3 months!

Sahre price bid/offer jumping around a lot today with Peel Hunt at top of bid and offer for most of the day so far trying to generate some trading. It looks like they have some volume to sell but likely only over 50p so not much happening yet today.

I'd agree that the company doesn't need to raise but I still think it should choose to raise earlier rather than later. Their choice and they will likely wait until 1st drill results are known. Capex to offset tax xoming from further development drilling in H2 which i think wa mentioned a month or 2 back. Looking more slowly at the figures the tax has been the real killer along with thte lack of capital offset. Q2 was not a nomr quarter due to lack of capex and aditional c$500k in operating expenses doubled up with loss of output - a double hit. I'd expect operatng expenses back down to Q1 levels for Q3 with an increase in output closer to 2000bopd. However the focus for now is clearly Ortoire. S has dipped as expected and likely do the same in Canada where it has been less positve over the last week or 2. There will be those waiting in the wings to buy at attractive prices.

May be some short-term moves in sp today down followed by a rise as Ortoire drill progresses. No real surprises in the results. HIghlights for me - plenty cash $7m for 2 drills as production is likely to rise again in Q3, tax hit along with +9% operating expenses not so good but these figures are dwarfed by the prospective increase coming from Ortoire - +50% at 95% CoS or +100% bopd at 73% Cos. God enough for me. Patience will be rewarded.

90% buys at the moment offset by our large seller. looking positive once the overhang clears

Just thinking about a possible raise some more and my preference is that it happens in the next week or 2. That would give certainty on 2nd/3rd well drill funding, would be more attractive to placees and would place a strong floor under the p with only positives to come in the next 3 months. Irrespective of that I will continue to hold for the coming upside.

Wider market sentiment is obscuring the great short-term value on offer here. 95% chace of +1000bpd and 73% chance of +2000bpd within 6 months or so of completing drill 1 - say April next year. If the 2nd drill needs another small raise I'd take that as a further vote of confidence in the company. Yes there are negatives such as tax rates and production maybe 200-300bpd below where I thought it would be but taking a balanced view the negatives are outweighed by the positives and we also have an excellent CEO - a major factor in my eyes.

Can't believe I just had the chance to buy another 25k at 14.965p. Thank you seller!

With a 95% CoS I am surprised at the lack of trading going on here. Perhaps risk-off for oil more generally at the moment but this is a low risk investment imho. As we get closer to the end of the 1st drill period interest is likely to rise - later in August.

Tier

I am as impatient as you and many others. Could be Monday, could be next week/month but I am sure it will be in the next couple of months at the outside.

Back in April Paul said that TXP budgeting is done on brent at $55... last year (2018?) they had 500bopd hedged at $50. 'North of $60 we basically can fund a continual drilling program … we’re really excited with where we’re at on the cost structure and everything else' said Paul. Well - we're not quite at $60 but were over that level for a while so must be in decent shape financially. I agree no raise needed now - I was thinking more towards the end of the year (Brent price dependant).

Photographer I'm not too concerned about the 1829bpd as we have a 95% chance of doubling this within a couple of months. It will be a juggling act between re-working wells and starting to develop a few more prior to end 2019 in co-operation with Heritage though to maintain these levels without a small further raise. If we need a couple of million to fund the final well I won't be too bothered - the financials stack up very well.

Excellent news on the spud. 1829 bpd is a bit lower than I'd hoped for and looks like a commitment to maintain at this level. Ortoire is the driver of value though and not a small dip in production levels.

I had another 50k at the bell when sp dipped under 15.5 following a bit of a slide in Canada. Let's hope the timing is good for a change. Markets are difficult just now.

Ophidian

I think you are exactly right. I've gone through every trade today and assigned as best I can to buy or sell and I get 800k buys and 800k sells accompanied by a sp drop of 4p. What does that tell us? MM's pushing the sp down likely due to availability of warrants. No reflection of intrinsic value. Just wish I'd topped up this afternoon rather than this morning but it won't matter much when looking 3-6 months ahead.

LD Thanks for spotting and posting. This is a useful overview and a positive view on BMN even referring to the short-selling we've been aware of for a while. Worth a wider readership.

55p to both buy and sell at the moment with more downward pressure on the offer side. Looks like different market makers have different agendas this week.

Hi Gizzy87 I just joined today too - didn't know you were admin. I am an occasional poster here and holder for several months with a fairly chunky holding for me. Risk/reward is strongly skewed to the upside. I like all those who submit challenging views and am of the view we are all responsible for our own decisions based on the research we do. TXP may be small but is has a dependable feel to it with a very solid CEO. Patience more likely to be rewarded than not.

14.22 on bid and 14.23 on offer. The bid has pushed up this morning and it is Shore Capital who are trying to keep the offer price low. Battle between the MM's but looks like if there is any buying the sp will rise again. I made it an excess of buys over sells yesterday of 800-900k. Very few sells so current trading sentiment is positive.