Member Info for zeusfurla

A ridiculously wide spread on offer from the MM's in an attempt to stifle buying pressure - will it work?

Cantors looking to buy 175k stock with only 2.5k to sell. They seem to be short on stock.

Interesting to see over the last couple of days (following the 10% rise in sp earlier this week) that market makers seem to me to be trying to keep a lid on the sp. They are generally offering lowish volumes on RSP on Level 2 (c10,000) but want to buy 100,000 shares from us. Don't be deceived by slight drop in sp - not representative. Any half-decent buying pressure will see the sp rise again. Thanks also from me to those who are able to bring research to the board - much appreciated.

Edo is one of the states. I assume this means if the local assembly cant sort itself out section 11 suggests the National Assembly can make laws and take control at state level of Edo. I wonder then if Edo state is holding the rest up?

Market makers appear to be short of shares - I can't buy any at 17p

Early rise today and a chance to reflect on BMN and the last 9 months since I first invested. I invested last year due to the fundamentals - strong cash flow, no debt, relatively low risk (after I understood the SA political position to a degree), significant resources, excellent management team, unique opportunity from VRFB's in Southern Africa. Downsides I identified at the time - SA politics, communications not always forthcoming, potentially stretched at senior management level as the company grows. Where are we today? Personally my investment is the largest it has been, my confidence has never been higher, may faith in management is stronger (not that they haven't made a mistake or 2 along the way). On tangibles, resources have increased, so has/is cash flow, still no debt (but relaxed if they take a small, targetted amount on to grow the business), VRFB's coming closer, risk lower (although there is always risk). The share price has fallen and also has been volatile - partly due to being an AIM stock but also partly to factors that couldn't have been predicted 9 months ago - a large seller(s), significant shorting activity, highly volatile and manipulated Vanadium prices. The outlook? Some of these latter items will unwind over the next quarter or by end year, JSE listing will be a significant step forward, sp will rise markedly (just a matter of time). My conclusion - this remains the investment I am most comfortable with despite short-term sp movements. I encourage any newer investors to read the great posts by many LTH's on this board who think in a similar way and see if you can identify the value that I have seen. No investment advice intended!

There was a reference to a new poster and I just wanted to clarify that I am one of these - however not entirely new to SAVP. I invested a few months back and got fed up at delays then got out having made a 20% loss - not clever. However I still kept SAVP on my watch list and kept up to date with developments. I bought back in c21p, convinced again of the business case. However I am now down almost 20% again but have more confidence this time. Downside risk is limited and upside is considerable. However, depending on the message on Thurs/Fri the sp could take another short-term hit. The Board should word any RNS carefully - the old saying under-promise and over-deliver is worth heeding particularly when working in less predictable jurisdictions. I still think 80%+ chance of completion within a couple of months.

The issue is not timing as the market mostly does not take these dates as given. The question is whether the deal will happen at all and given progress to date I see no real reason to doubt this whether we complete in June, July or August. It is not far away.

Last week was the end of the quarterly spreadbet and other financial options period. Any shorts (and longs - including some of my own) held by IG and others could have been rolled over en masse which may explain the large volumes.

Appears that the tame seller is still around today unfortunately. Patience required. Things will change very quickly when they do.

I am not yet convinced that 10-15m sells on Friday is enough to represent the end of what has been a long and tortuous last few months but I do think the end is coming. Friday felt more like some technical adjustments although this could of course have a positive effect next week on the sp. I agree that we will need to see V prices on a steadier upward trend to be sure of leaving the 20's behind. Not long to wait though...the news has been terrific on Vanchem and resources as well as a hint of what is to come on BE.

My experience is that these are sometimes errors. I know this as one of them was my own buy once! Not sure about this one. Strange trading patterns yesterday so not sure if we are heading for a change on Monday or more of the same. We will soon know.

Ophidian I agree - a more apt solution - as long as the funding is not too expensive to service I'll take any source.

Page 52 of the latest corporate presentation on the website sets out clearly how the leasing model is going to work. I find this very reassuring. I wasn't sure how the diversion of vanadium from sales to leasing would affect short-term profitability and whether there would be any need to raise cash from shareholders. Page 62 provides the answers. A special purpose leasing vehicle will buy the vanadium, funded by a loan from a financial institution which will presumably be paid off to match the income flows from electrolyte rentals. Both BMN and the SPV will be making a profit and the diversification of risk that is so sought after by PI's like ourselves will have been achieved to a considerable degree within the one holding company. Vanadium price risk will have been significantly mitigated. And that time is not far away.

One of the significant upsides for me of the last 6 months has been the switch of shares from a weak holder(s) into many of the LTH's on this board (as well as a few traders I guess). If you look at the number of buy and sell trades the buy trades have outnumbered the sells by a significant margin for some time now. It is taking higher quantity sales to balance the larger number of committed buys. Once our tame seller has cleared there will be several % more held in stocky hands than pre-December last year - maybe 5%? On top of existing committed LTH's this can only strengthen the sp in the next 6-12 months.

I've been tracking activity today on level 2 using the very helpful RSP market through IG and what it clearly shows is what posters such as alfa and bassguy have been saying. Shorts started closing in volume yesterday and today is more of the same. Posts in recent months have talked about shorts pushing the sp down and that they would have to reverse one day. With V prices beginning to rise it looks like that day/week has come. I don't know how long it will take but a few days at most given the faster rate of closure we have seen yesterday/today. In some ways I welcome the low sp as it means that these shorts are being closed more quickly than they may otherwise be closed and with tame seller shares which as Alfa mentioned is the underlying reason for the sustained suppression of the sp. There is some evidence tha the tame seller's shares are going down through looking at RSP on Level 2 but the quicker they are all sold the better for all holders. As soon as V prices start to tick up more quickly and the looming JSE listing appears the quicker will our sp rise to a fairer level. I am so confident in Bushey despite its current sp that I am currently hodling more shares than I have ever held (too many as a % of my portfolio!). Good luck all.

https://www.touchstoneexploration.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/January-17-2019-Ortoire-Prospect-Evaluations-FINAL-TSX.pdf

I thought it worth re-posting the link to the independent report issued in January this year by GLG Petroleum Consultants on the Ortoire prospects. Also worth reminding ourselves of what a 95% Chance of Commerciality means here. The Contingent Resources in the report carry no Discovery Risk ie the resources are already discovered. There is no exploration risk. Contingent Resources have risks associated with the Chance of Development only. Further details on this in the report. I leave you to make up your own minds on the prospects for a successful outcome from the upcoming drill programme.

The other risk is that the BFS flags up too much key work that hasn't yet been done - ie it shows more as a work in progress. I hope that doesn't happen. Medium-term this is a great investment even if the management has its ups and downs. You can't ignore the assets in the ground.

Polar clearing must be good for sp in conjunction with spud. I was struggling to understand why sp wasn't nearer 20p at least over recent weeks. We should see an uptick over the next week or so.

Listening to Fortune's interview and comments on brownfield sites as well absorbing the facts relating to the likely scale of demand for vanadium over the next few years got me wondering when the 3rd brownfield plant will come our way. The market will need vanadium and we have a huge resource in the ground. We will need cash for this (and maybe a little borrowing?) but I can see it being less than the 3-5 years it will take for Vanchem to be fully productive.