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Perhaps some more experienced O&G investor could clarify for me what the appraisal well at Serenity actually means? My understanding of appraisal well is that it is drilled to understand the potential of a hydrocarbon reservoir. How does i3E know there is a hydrocarbon reservoir there if it hasn't yet been drilled? How much certainty can there be about this? Is the company saying that they are 100% certain that oil is there but not sure if it is yet commercial? I'm not sure either how this compares with the geological CoS quoted of 70%. Any enlightenment appreciated.

I think that means that we will get the results from Coho-1 ahead of TD at Cascadura, perhaps any time from mid-October onwards. I topped up yesterday - can't believe that we are noty seeing a rise in sp given that production could be double current levels within only 6-9 months.

It's worth comparing potential upside and downside at the moment when the sp is under pressure. There is no doubt in my mind that short-term holders/traders jumped in to fill the gap when Miton/LO sold their initial 10%. No company have survive a loss of 10% of its longer-term holdings without being put under presure. New buyers/holders traker time to arrive and with the relatively poor PR of the company, it's hard to attract buyers in volume. However, the downside risk here is limited. As others have mentioned on this Board, there are proven reserves in Liberator which have a value. Even if both drills come up with nothing, oil will come out of the ground - maybe delayed, maybe with a placing or more debt, but it will happen. Maximum downside? Maybe 50% of the current sp in the short-term? Upside potential however is significantly more than this. There is plenty of datsa out there to look at and come to a view on but given the lower sp the upside is now more than double at least even on modest drilling results at either well. Best to ignore the herd, make your own risk assessment and then sit back and wait for results in a few weeks. If LO sell a few more it won't affect where we will end up in a month or 2 - just gives a lower entry point for those wh ohave funds (not me, I'm already invested to the right level for my risk appetite).

Helpful reminder from Pro_S2009 on ADVFN on Serenity's prospects from the company. Replace 'xx' with 'tt' for link.

hxxps://i3.energy/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/20181212-i3-Energy-Prospex.pdf

Interesting auction at end of day with 150k changing hands at 24.3p. Things are simmering nicely with iminent news likey to provide a positive sp catalyst.

I missed this when I read it last Friday but on re-read see that the answer on senior debt facility was that it remains dependent on Liberator results (as expected) but also that it 'will be sized in accordancew with well results and ....mapping'. To my mind that means, as BBN said a few days back, that the senior debt facility is coming and that it is only a question of size. Worst case scenario is 1 well, more likely 2 wells (with a possible 3rd to be added later). The oil is there, the debt will be there. The market (and Market Makers) has over-reacted to the well result due to poor comms by the BoD in advance of what it was for.

I wonder if there will be news of a dividend/buy-back in the interims?

I meant to say 1 buy at 100k...

Only 1 buyt showing on IG via L2. Market is waiting to determine direction at moment. Could move quickly once it has some direction.

Do we think that the delay in moving the rig is due to Majid and team dong a quick analysis of the L2 data and deciding whether to go ahead with A3 first or not? Expoensive to keep a rig in place but also expensive to make a wrong decision. A few days delay is better than a wrong move. They have 20% ownership which is a strong plus point for me.

Order book looking better today. Any buying and we're back in the 24's.

Every company needs a finance practitioner to manage the numbers and also scrutininse risk management. I see her being involved in the risk area. Let's also hope she has some comms skills too.

Unfortunately a good chance this is day traders selling out having bought in volume earlier. We may be in a few days/weeks of this although I hope not.

O&W I agree with you and also thanks to BBN - consistent and productive posts.
Where I feel let down is the quality of communication from management. I've seen this elsewhere where technical experts are a long way from being expert in translating compex concepts into tismple language for PI's and others to understand. The whole L2 90% scenario was an avoidable car crash imo with some advance thinking. It seems to be that the geos get over-excited about outcomes and don't dedicate enough thinking time to ensuring the market gets accurate messages.

On Lom I agree with Bladey from earlier. 10.99% is not an accident. It was engineered to be that figure to reassure the market. There will still be traders selling out over the next few weeks and maybe even Lom will drop another 1% but the general trend pre-TD is likely upwards one. I hope we have an L2 update prior to the next TD - timing would help soothe nerves here even if as I believe the fundamentals are solid. We are talking 10,000 bopd at <£30m mcap - clearly a ridiculously low valuation even if the next 2 drills don't deliver as much as mid-case expectations.

Backwoodsman You will also find the 70% CoS (covering the A3 well area) in the independent CPR Phase 2 report in para 9.2. This is not the company's CoS - it is independent. There is a wide range of outcomes in the report but a mid-case outcome would result in a considerable re-rate to sp imho.

Col Drake I think we need to wait and see what data comes out of the pilot drill. It may be that there is enough additional reserve identified that avoids another drill. In addition if either of the 2 drills to come has a decent outcome these reserves can also be counted as BBN mentioned.
It has been a horrendous week for holders - to lose 1/2 of the saher's value in a week is a nightmare for everyone. However, looking at the facts rationally here, I am hopeful of a well-constructed RNS some time next week which will reassure the market on senior debt, phase 1 going ahead and proceeding with 2 exciting drills. A3 remember has 100% chance of oil - it's all about the commerciality of its recovery. Time well spent re-reading CPR1 and 2. There is risk but the big failing this week for me is inadequate communication of the purpose of the pilot well and what the outcome means. The market has over-reacted to this. Often after a weekend, there can be some recovery, albeit tempered by a large seller who may have further to go. Good weekend to all.

Having re-read the CPR's, presentation and listened again to the interview this morning, my confidence here has grown. Short-term there will be volatility in the sp - there is likely still II selling going on and short-term traders getting out as the gains didn't appear this week. I'm happy to buy more in this situation (wish I hadn't bought at 34p though!).

L2 appears to have aimed to realise the 8mmb target rather than go for L1 at 5mmb. It is small beer in the scheme of things and I guees the lenders wanted the largest reserves figure to provide them with the greatest reassurance. We'll hopefully get a better estimate of what L4 contains next week. Say 4 or 5mmb presumably reassures lenders. Field development is going to happen whatever, it's just that the debt facility and terms (revolvin credit as I recall) may be less favourable with lower reserves.

On A3, the oil is there and is a reserve subject to a development plan being put in place. The CPR report states this clearly. The risk is whether there is sufficient quantity for it to be commercially viable. The additional work BBN mentioned since CPR reduces the risk here in my view, although without an updated CPR all we can say is that the CoS is over 70% now but less than 100%. I was interested in the last comment of Graham Heath in the interview 'the epicentre of phase 1 may end up shifting west' - this is after the A3 drill. The development plan I am sure will be modified with a positive result from A3 - even a mid-case or slightly worse and it will still likely be modified. This makes me less certain of the 2020 timeline but more certain of the value on offer.

Been quite a few 250k buys this week. Today we h ave 3x 50k sells along with 2x 25k. May or may not still be the tail-end of some II selling. Volume dipping a bit now.

I too am reassured by the lack of RNS from Lombard who had been de-risking as a major holder. Miton shares likey all sold now. After an initial spike down by MM's they now seem keen to lift the sp although a lack of strong buying may be preventing this. Should see some upward pressure today.

One thing I am planning to look at again today is the CPR report. Given the difficulties in interpreting seismic data in Liberator I need to me more certain that A3 will definitely hit some of the reservoir that's down there. Any pointers from the more informed would be welcome. The quality of mapping and its interpretation by ythe company is my only doubt here now.

shore capital also buying and other MM's are not in the market really. Just need to wait and see. 2 buyers and 2 sellers - normal market tension.

For interest - winterfloods and peel hunt are selling in quantity and berenberg are trying to buy as much as they can. There is a conflict between MM's and my estimate is that until either of the sellers runs out of stock to sell we'll trade round about where we are. That could change quickly given higher volumes just now and I'd estimate that we'd see a sp uplift then. It may be that an II is de-risking which would be understandable. The reward profile hasn't really changed from yesterday's results but the risk has increased and II's do not like risk.