Member Info for zeusfurla

From what I saw later trading looked more like 'normal' MM behaviour compared to earlier prior to the lareg sell being printed. I'm more hopeful of a slightly straighter market tomorrow. Likely though that some traders jumped in today so won't go up in a straight line but should go up even if a few de-risk nearer TD.

kevmb Unfortunately no Zeus powers here - it was the name of a long gone favourite cat. Peel Hunt are trying to cvontrol the bid side but other MM's are not allowing this so if we see more buying today/tomorrow (and there doesn't appear to be anyone much selling) it looks like we could have a blue end to the week. You can never say never though.

It is crystal clear this morning that there has been a struggle between the MM's with Peel Hunt trying to keep the sp down and others including Winterflood short of stock. Peel Hunt offering only 1050 shares so attempting to suppress buys for now, next on the offer is 36.25p so looks like seller has cleared for now - maybe.

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I'd highly recommend reading the 28 pages in the Q3 report on the natural resource sector from Goehring & Rozencwajg - replace 'xx' with 'tt' in the address. It sets out clearly the current undervalued position of the O&G sector as a whole, which is affecting sentiment here as in other O&G shares. Undervalued sectors don't stay that way forever - similar to undervalued companies within an undervalued sector like i3E. Good bedtime reading!

greendave66 I've just tallied the buys/sells manually today and broadly agree with your figures c£350-400k more buys than sells and yet the sp fell. No late trades that I can see on my platform but given a similar pattern in recent days we'd need to see a late trade of perhaps 2m sells to justify the last few d ays sp movements. We won't get this of course as the MM's are corrupt and are moving the sp wherever they want. This is AIM after all. A few more weeks patience is all that is needed. I am not a conspiracy theorist, I just believe that this market exists to pay the fees/salaries of MM's and suit corporate/institutional investors as mentioned earlier today. Best to stay relaxed about this as it will turn soon.

tonynortstrom1 I can't agree with your conclusions on the current sp position. Whilst the next drill at Liberator is important for granting the RBL facility, i3E now has 2 assets in play and as BBN mentioned earlier is in the driving seat when it comes to Serenity. We can't forget Majid's past career experience in the finance side of O&G. It is clear from looking at trading activitiy in recemnt days that there is some shorting activity going on. Presumably shorters think that the sp will dip in advance of the next drill as some de-risk and that there is unlikely to be significant news for the next 3/4 weeks. The oattern of 25k and 50k sells today indicates to me the likelihood of shorters increasing their position. Interetsing to note that Peel Hunt in particular appear to be facilitating this. As is usual on AIM collusion is not uncommon. Best to sit tight and take any opportunity that lower buying prices offer as this will move quickly when it doea. It could be anytime given the certainty of discussions between RRE and i3E which must surely be taking place this month.

MM manipulation looks like it is going to continue today after yesterday's excess buying led to a drop in sp. Bid dropping on small buys as the offer lowers. Maybe spud in a day or 2 will bring more buyers in. Meanwhile the MM's appear to be assisting potential shorters in lowering the sp. AIM market is not one to trade short-term but we all know where this is going in the next few weeks.

Strong buying today indicates potential imminent news so Tues/Wed are possibilities.

I've had a re-think based on a couple of posts from elsewhere and am now more positive on the $5m credit extension. It could be a cash shortage but it could also be something much more positive. We'll know soon enough. Paul said a few weeks ago that Casca was funded and yet yesterday's RNS suggests that more funds are needed to pay for the drill. Something has changed in the last 3 weeks or so and that is quite possibly good news about to hit from Coho and/or Casca that has caused a short-term change of plan. It could be VAT refund delays or something more positive like funds being needed to progress imminent positive drill results. It would explain why the RNS didn't say more than just commenting on the credit facility as they would not be able to do that until testing/TD is complete. News later this week or next week and likely to be very positive.

Wolf I was also a little disappointed given Paul's recent comments that Casca was funded. I think from earlier conversations the cost to drill Casca is c$3m or a little less so this should fund more than just Casca. I am coming to the view that 2 positive outcomes at Coho and Casca will possibly lead to a placing prior to Chinook and Royston. On the back f 2 positive results I believe this would be a very good thing - however I thought it may happen after Chinook rather than before. We'll have to wait and see. However the incres in gas/oil output could increase the whole company's production by 50-100% which would more than compensate for a few million dollars to fund us past Royston. I still have faith in Paul based on the last year but a little disappointed things changed so quickly. Still a strong buy for me right now due to the considerable undervaluation in the current sp. If it sat at 20p I'd be de-risking but it is ridiculously cheap when you look at the last year's sp levels.

Agadem and Diversified Thanks both for your posts over recent weeks - well thought through and sensible. I trust I didn't give the impression I have any doubts about 7E completing. I don't. I have a significant investment here which I added to this week in anticipation of closure. I just get a bit frustrated at the opaque nature of the market and the self-serving behaviour of market makers. As news flow on first oil and Niger development appears following 7E we will see this hard-working company grow in stature. Likely next step next week. Enjoy your weekend.

Looks like the MM's have access to a pot of shares and are dropping in 100k sells to keep a lid on the sp, which explains sp moves today. I hope these are not the shares not yet issued and due on completion of the 7E deal. However nothing, no matter how illegal, would surprise me in this unregulated market when it comes to MM's.

BBN Thanks for your latest post. Methodical, logical and wiuth a high CoS of success if I don't say so! As you said before, short-ter, market dynamics are keeping the sp low just now but my confidence in the Board and in the next drill are quite a bit higher than for Serenity. Any rational value investor should be invested here given Serenity and earlier Liberator proven resources. Time to sit back and wait for news.

I'm happy to have had a few top-ups this morning to take advantage of the 23's. News next week very likely imho.

It looks like we are not far from a bottom in current sp (just my own view). It is apparent from trading patterns that there as well as 16-27p holders takng profit there is soms short-term trading going on. It is also possible that there could be some short-term shorts in operation which may have pushed the sp down from the 40s to its current level. This is a dangerous tactic if in play given how quickly this will move up. Plenty of round number sells in the last few days and we know this is not LO selling in the absence of an RNS.

BBN and HeidHoncho Thanks for your information - very useful. The key date initially is spud date and we should know that in around a week as i3E will likely RNS this. I'd suggest the following tweaks to possible dates. These assume spud next Friday 8th.

If a duster, spud + 19-21 days = 27-29 Nov
If a positive result spud + 24-25 days = 2-3 Dec

Enough time to finalise details of RBL prior to 31 December should the result be a positive one.

Both estimates weather permittiing and subject to no sidetracks, drilling blockages etc.

Extended credit facility by $C5m. On the plus side TXP and the lender are clearly confident that TXP will be generating cash from Coho next year to meet the first payment the following year. On the down side results from Coho and Casca are now mid-November. Presumably the $5m due from the VAT refund is not due imminently and this is why the credit facility has been extended. Again positive for shareholders that there has been no dilution but I had hoped Casca could be funded. We shouldn't forget that the cost of drilling Casca will be offset for tax purposes in Q4 as previously mentioned by the company which is another credit to come albeit in the future. Still very positive about results in a week or 2.

Sunday

From the interview I'm expecting both next week - late this week is possible but more likely next. Good news expected from both as far as I am concerned.

I think it may be warrants being forward sold given how close we are to the 40.7p strike price but I amo noexpert in this area. Took the chance to buy more at 39.99p.

Hi BWM

Some possible reasons for the current sp being lower than its value by quite a long distance -

Miton and Lombard exit a while back removing 10%+ of shareholders from the rgister (hard to fill such a big gap)
buyers from 16-28p now selling out
Market Makers builidng up stock to sell at a higher price as the share re0-rates upwards
traders seeing an opportunity today buying/selling/(shorting?)
forward selling of warrants

None of these is a reflection of the intrinsic value of i3E.

On NAV I don't see us anywhere near that level for quite some time to come, if at all. Liberator may have a larger influence on sp than Serenity but a 12p rise (c£12m market cap) on a 197mm result (even if appraisal is still to come and deliverable oil will be much less than that) is really a silly market reaction, well below what it will move to in the next few weeks/months imho.