Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Strong buying today indicates potential imminent news so Tues/Wed are possibilities.
I've had a re-think based on a couple of posts from elsewhere and am now more positive on the $5m credit extension. It could be a cash shortage but it could also be something much more positive. We'll know soon enough. Paul said a few weeks ago that Casca was funded and yet yesterday's RNS suggests that more funds are needed to pay for the drill. Something has changed in the last 3 weeks or so and that is quite possibly good news about to hit from Coho and/or Casca that has caused a short-term change of plan. It could be VAT refund delays or something more positive like funds being needed to progress imminent positive drill results. It would explain why the RNS didn't say more than just commenting on the credit facility as they would not be able to do that until testing/TD is complete. News later this week or next week and likely to be very positive.
Wolf I was also a little disappointed given Paul's recent comments that Casca was funded. I think from earlier conversations the cost to drill Casca is c$3m or a little less so this should fund more than just Casca. I am coming to the view that 2 positive outcomes at Coho and Casca will possibly lead to a placing prior to Chinook and Royston. On the back f 2 positive results I believe this would be a very good thing - however I thought it may happen after Chinook rather than before. We'll have to wait and see. However the incres in gas/oil output could increase the whole company's production by 50-100% which would more than compensate for a few million dollars to fund us past Royston. I still have faith in Paul based on the last year but a little disappointed things changed so quickly. Still a strong buy for me right now due to the considerable undervaluation in the current sp. If it sat at 20p I'd be de-risking but it is ridiculously cheap when you look at the last year's sp levels.
Agadem and Diversified Thanks both for your posts over recent weeks - well thought through and sensible. I trust I didn't give the impression I have any doubts about 7E completing. I don't. I have a significant investment here which I added to this week in anticipation of closure. I just get a bit frustrated at the opaque nature of the market and the self-serving behaviour of market makers. As news flow on first oil and Niger development appears following 7E we will see this hard-working company grow in stature. Likely next step next week. Enjoy your weekend.
Looks like the MM's have access to a pot of shares and are dropping in 100k sells to keep a lid on the sp, which explains sp moves today. I hope these are not the shares not yet issued and due on completion of the 7E deal. However nothing, no matter how illegal, would surprise me in this unregulated market when it comes to MM's.
BBN Thanks for your latest post. Methodical, logical and wiuth a high CoS of success if I don't say so! As you said before, short-ter, market dynamics are keeping the sp low just now but my confidence in the Board and in the next drill are quite a bit higher than for Serenity. Any rational value investor should be invested here given Serenity and earlier Liberator proven resources. Time to sit back and wait for news.
I'm happy to have had a few top-ups this morning to take advantage of the 23's. News next week very likely imho.
It looks like we are not far from a bottom in current sp (just my own view). It is apparent from trading patterns that there as well as 16-27p holders takng profit there is soms short-term trading going on. It is also possible that there could be some short-term shorts in operation which may have pushed the sp down from the 40s to its current level. This is a dangerous tactic if in play given how quickly this will move up. Plenty of round number sells in the last few days and we know this is not LO selling in the absence of an RNS.
BBN and HeidHoncho Thanks for your information - very useful. The key date initially is spud date and we should know that in around a week as i3E will likely RNS this. I'd suggest the following tweaks to possible dates. These assume spud next Friday 8th.
If a duster, spud + 19-21 days = 27-29 Nov
If a positive result spud + 24-25 days = 2-3 Dec
Enough time to finalise details of RBL prior to 31 December should the result be a positive one.
Both estimates weather permittiing and subject to no sidetracks, drilling blockages etc.
Extended credit facility by $C5m. On the plus side TXP and the lender are clearly confident that TXP will be generating cash from Coho next year to meet the first payment the following year. On the down side results from Coho and Casca are now mid-November. Presumably the $5m due from the VAT refund is not due imminently and this is why the credit facility has been extended. Again positive for shareholders that there has been no dilution but I had hoped Casca could be funded. We shouldn't forget that the cost of drilling Casca will be offset for tax purposes in Q4 as previously mentioned by the company which is another credit to come albeit in the future. Still very positive about results in a week or 2.
Hi BWM
Some possible reasons for the current sp being lower than its value by quite a long distance -
Miton and Lombard exit a while back removing 10%+ of shareholders from the rgister (hard to fill such a big gap)
buyers from 16-28p now selling out
Market Makers builidng up stock to sell at a higher price as the share re0-rates upwards
traders seeing an opportunity today buying/selling/(shorting?)
forward selling of warrants
None of these is a reflection of the intrinsic value of i3E.
On NAV I don't see us anywhere near that level for quite some time to come, if at all. Liberator may have a larger influence on sp than Serenity but a 12p rise (c£12m market cap) on a 197mm result (even if appraisal is still to come and deliverable oil will be much less than that) is really a silly market reaction, well below what it will move to in the next few weeks/months imho.
BWM
Thanks. That is a fair reflection of my views. I'd recommend listening to the proactive presentation (alongside the RNS) if you haven't done so already - these are very helpful in forming an understanding and in further determining confidence in the management team. Key points for me were the references in today's updated presentation as well as proactive to the newest seismic data acquired and how this mapped well onto Serenity, within expected tolerances. What I heard encouraged me to top up quite a bit today. Whilst I agree that success in the next drill will likely relesase $100m funding, the current sp is in my view significantly lower than it should be, even taking account of very poor sentiment across the O&G sector at present.
BWM Thanks for your reply. No offence was intended but accuracy in information is important when financial decisions are being taken by PI's.
I believe your comment on risk at Liberator could be potentially misleading to others so I will clarify further. The increase in risk referred to relates to Liberator West, which asset I would say is hardly reflected in the sp at present. However, Liberator Phase 1, with improved seismic data and a reduced STOIIP, is potentially due to deliver oil next year and is de-risked to some extent with the VSP, seismic data etc.
Best zeus
£8m warrants at 40.7p, £8m at 48.1p and £8m at 55.5p. Were we trading in the 40-42p range today due to forward selling of warrants. I recall some thought that warrants were being forward sold on the sp rise to c55p a while back but it could be happening now. Interested to hear others views.
Backwoodsman
A couple of simple points from me. If you are looking for an entry point surely yesterday would have been better than today and last week better than this week. I simply cannot take your 'entry point' comment seriously.
Secondly, today's huge discovery at Serenity has de-risked PI's investing in i3E not increased it. The success of the new seismic ay Serenity has also de-risked the next drill at Liberator. To say the risk has increased is untrue for Liberator Phase 1 where STOIIP has decreased not increased.
Croz2492 I also noticed the body language. There may be a few things left unsaid by Majid but in any event it increases options for developing Serenity and de-risks our investments.
Having just listened to the presentation what I was particularly impressed by was the professionalism, accuracy, attention to detail, humility and overall the consistency with previous messaging. I can only stress what I think BBN has said before that it is important to read what is written and listen to what is said by the company. At first I had some doubts on the comms from the company but I am now as confident as I can be in the management team. I also like the fact that when circumstances change they change their plans. Another sign of experience - thay are not afraid to admit they get some things wrong and then modify their plans and adapt. High degree of professionalism. The final thought from me is that the new seismic, now that I understand it better (you can see an example on today's slides) appears to have significantly de-risked Liberator Phase 1 - the next drill. Much to look forward to and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the return of some II's in the coming weeks and months.
There does appear to be a bcakground seller around (as well as traders exiting) but given the volume today not much left to sell I'd hope. I saw 350k for sale at 43p in the auction so likely some more to sell but buying pressure is good and once selling pressure eases we should see a decent rise in sp over the next few days. I added a few today in the low 40's. Also looked like there is a MM with shares and others who want tp push the sp up pnow they have shares to sell. Will no doubt play out over the next few days. This is definitely not the time to sell imho.