Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
BWM I see yout contiued de-ramping of this share continues. Fortunately most on this board now know to ignore your posts. At present thereis no evidence of further selling by LO, although it is clear that the Market Makers have sell orders on their books - it could be from elsewhere. I've followed today's trading and really the MM's have excelled themselves again. At 33.8, 33.9 and 34 on the offer, it has not been possible to buy. However it has been possible to sell at these prices. Quite a few sells have gone through (which look like buys) which have then allowed the MM's to offload chunks of shares from their sellers and lift the bid price. Certainly not transparent behaviour but it shows that the MM's can't afford for the sp to drop too far just now. It is in a range that the seller requires to sell at. Buyers are hanging back as they know there are sell orders on the go. However, if we think medium term ie 2-3 weeks down the line - the A2 result makes all this short-term stuff irrelevant. A successful drill result (highly likely) is positive for the sp. Now is a good time to stock the cupboard with i3E shares imho.
Market makers today have taken the opportunity to push the sp down on low volumes imho. Just over 200k trades approx £25k at most and the sp is down c20% - that is not a measured response to the voluime of trades through today. I expect that a floor has been reached given that we will receive news on Coho-1 by next tor the following week. If we recall from Paul's interview a week to test and a week to get results out - end of next week or the following really is not long to wait. Given the earlier RNS we know this will contain good news on commercial gas. We just don't know how good the news will be. However we should remember that gas is not taxed as onerously as oil in T&T and this is good diversification for the company. The market doesn't like delays and in addition the financial position has increase income tax and reduced Brent prices - this is likely the worst quarter results we will get. Production is at a good level given minimal development in the last quarter and we will receive the tax credits for Cascadura likely in Q4 this year. There has been an over-reaction today by the market imho. I expect the Canadian market to be more positive as it closed higher than we did yesterday. The company has an extended line of credit to $20m. Woud they have got that if they didn't have a strong business case?
I've checked tomorrow's Court 10 and there is nbo carry over showing from today which I guess was possible. A positive sign.
Key wording from last RNS as a reminder. Putting this together with Paul's recent interview comments I think Casca news is more likely next week and that Coho-1 should be any day now. From memory, he said a week to test and a week to get results out. May combine this with an update? Not long to wait and expecting really positive news on both with perhaps ongoing production down a bit to 1600-1700 bopd range given lack of new drilling.
'The expanded facility will primarily be used to fund the Company's Cascadura-1 exploration well, which is currently drilling and is anticipated to reach total depth in mid-November. In addition, Touchstone has moved in a service rig to Coho-1 to commence production testing. Test results are expected to be available in mid-November.'
High Court business for tomorrow, starts at 10.30. Looks like we are last up so may be late Wednesday or Thursday before we hear anything.
'In the High Court of Justice - Business and Property Courts of England and Wales
Interim Applications List (ChD)
Parties appearing in the applications court must note that the applications court works from hard copy documents. The judge does not work from CE-file. Accordingly, in addition to the usual lodged bundles, any additional documents such as skeleton arguments or late-provided documents (whether or not they are also filed via CE-file) should be made available in hard copy, either via listing or to the judge’s clerk in the normal way (though skeletons can also be provided to the judge’s clerk via email if time does not permit the delivery of a hard copy).
The Rolls Buildings,
Court 10
Before MR JUSTICE MORGAN
Wednesday 13 November 2019
At 10:30 AM
Interim Applications List
BL-2019-001998 Satfinance Investment Limited v Philbrick and others
PT-2019-000908 Spence v Allie
CR-2019-007449 Seven Energy International Limited'
RK Terrific interview sets out the thinking thathas gone into developing BMN over the last few years. There is a consistency in message and strong belief in the approach aligned with a really professional management team. This will be a star performer of AIM given a little time for V prices to turn. 'Huge upside' as Fortune said.
DelBoi Well said. There is space for all views on this BB as long as they are rationally explained and genuinely held. I acknowledge the vision of others in anticipating warrants and/or placings. It should also be acknowledged that given the scale of find at Serenity on top of what is imminent at Liberator these additional warrants/placings do not reduce the future value of investing in i3E. All readers willl make their own mind up but it is clear to me following trading in detail last week through RSP on L2 that the current sp is not a reflection of value. We have lost c15% of our II's in little over a month - any company would suffer from that and yet we have had millions of shares bought in the last week or 2, many I suspect by PI's who see the real value here. Even the binary A2 has been considerably de-risked in the unlikely event of it coming up dry by the extension to the drilling period. Hihghly professional management thinking on their feet and adapting their tactics to a changing environment.
We'll find out on Monday if another LO RNS hits but we did have a 3m sell yesterday and todayt there has been more selling so I'd suspect it is more than just LO. Impossible to say when it might clear but at the end of it PI's will own more of the company.
Vox podcast - short and to the point - a good intro to SAVP for newbies. Strengths are - strong II base, 7E cash generator c$150m pa, Niger 5/5 discoveries and 100 to drill with 1st oil soon, good economics to expand in Nigeria given quality and capaity of infrastructure.
JustBe I suggest you get toddle off to another board. Looking at your past history you are not here to provide 'balance' but to de-ramp this share and scare PI's - it won't work. There is no guesswork in investing in i3E or lack of confidence from PI's if you look at the millions of shares bought this week. LO have exited to the tune of over 4% (and maybe more) which is keeping the sp down for now. Significant oil has been found and if you look at the Options RNS just released one condition relates to 'securing funding for the Liberator Phase I or SERENITY development'. The inclusion of Serenioty is an indication of the prospective resource now on 2 fronts. The company management are certainly not short of confidence and neither should they be.
From what I saw later trading looked more like 'normal' MM behaviour compared to earlier prior to the lareg sell being printed. I'm more hopeful of a slightly straighter market tomorrow. Likely though that some traders jumped in today so won't go up in a straight line but should go up even if a few de-risk nearer TD.
kevmb Unfortunately no Zeus powers here - it was the name of a long gone favourite cat. Peel Hunt are trying to cvontrol the bid side but other MM's are not allowing this so if we see more buying today/tomorrow (and there doesn't appear to be anyone much selling) it looks like we could have a blue end to the week. You can never say never though.
It is crystal clear this morning that there has been a struggle between the MM's with Peel Hunt trying to keep the sp down and others including Winterflood short of stock. Peel Hunt offering only 1050 shares so attempting to suppress buys for now, next on the offer is 36.25p so looks like seller has cleared for now - maybe.
hxxps://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/4043042/Commentaries/2019.Q3%20Commentary/2019.Q3%20Goehring%20&%20Rozencwajg%20Market%20Commentary.pdf
I'd highly recommend reading the 28 pages in the Q3 report on the natural resource sector from Goehring & Rozencwajg - replace 'xx' with 'tt' in the address. It sets out clearly the current undervalued position of the O&G sector as a whole, which is affecting sentiment here as in other O&G shares. Undervalued sectors don't stay that way forever - similar to undervalued companies within an undervalued sector like i3E. Good bedtime reading!
greendave66 I've just tallied the buys/sells manually today and broadly agree with your figures c£350-400k more buys than sells and yet the sp fell. No late trades that I can see on my platform but given a similar pattern in recent days we'd need to see a late trade of perhaps 2m sells to justify the last few d ays sp movements. We won't get this of course as the MM's are corrupt and are moving the sp wherever they want. This is AIM after all. A few more weeks patience is all that is needed. I am not a conspiracy theorist, I just believe that this market exists to pay the fees/salaries of MM's and suit corporate/institutional investors as mentioned earlier today. Best to stay relaxed about this as it will turn soon.
tonynortstrom1 I can't agree with your conclusions on the current sp position. Whilst the next drill at Liberator is important for granting the RBL facility, i3E now has 2 assets in play and as BBN mentioned earlier is in the driving seat when it comes to Serenity. We can't forget Majid's past career experience in the finance side of O&G. It is clear from looking at trading activitiy in recemnt days that there is some shorting activity going on. Presumably shorters think that the sp will dip in advance of the next drill as some de-risk and that there is unlikely to be significant news for the next 3/4 weeks. The oattern of 25k and 50k sells today indicates to me the likelihood of shorters increasing their position. Interetsing to note that Peel Hunt in particular appear to be facilitating this. As is usual on AIM collusion is not uncommon. Best to sit tight and take any opportunity that lower buying prices offer as this will move quickly when it doea. It could be anytime given the certainty of discussions between RRE and i3E which must surely be taking place this month.
MM manipulation looks like it is going to continue today after yesterday's excess buying led to a drop in sp. Bid dropping on small buys as the offer lowers. Maybe spud in a day or 2 will bring more buyers in. Meanwhile the MM's appear to be assisting potential shorters in lowering the sp. AIM market is not one to trade short-term but we all know where this is going in the next few weeks.