Member Info for zeusfurla

Interesting to see Berenburg looking to pay 4.15p for 500k+ a few seconds prior to close despite a nominal fall in the bid from 4.1p to 4p. It seems that MM's available stock presumably from the equity raise appears to have dried up .

Happysparrow Thanks for sharing. Without wanting to turn this into a vaccine thread I agree with this report. mercola.com has similar information from an American perspective although his views are much more polarised given the polarisation in the US. DYOR and independent thinking is key as always.

SP fell previously due to institutional selling and stayed at 7-9p for quite a while. We are not in the same situation now. Whilst frustrating, we will get there but would like AK to provide us with some more tangible evidence of progress - eg debt restructure and Niger first oil.

Looks to me like the RNS may have been written by someone whose 1st language is not English? Clumsy not concerning.

Beware of posters with transparent agendas.

Interesting to see the real bid and offer price both at 35p for the last 15 minutes - a few trades though but unclear as to buys or sells. Looks like MM's have conflicting positions.

currently 33/35. The usual lack of reaction from MM's to positive news although they are quick to drop the sp. Early days and patience required. Top up opportunity.

Eric

I wouldn't be surprised if it was the following w/c 9/3 but we will no doubt hear more on Tuesday in the webcast.

On trading today I've been tracking and there has been no problem buying/selliong other than at the start of day with a very wide spread when MM's didn't know what demand was going to be. I think some II's are offloading in London but maybe not in Toronto so we'll see a push up there and a push down here. Anyway, volume has dropped markedly today so no upward pressuer at the moment. Waiting a week or 2 for the start of news won't be too painful for me!

This is still a strong buy for me at this price but it's important I don't get too carried away. I read recently the average buyout premium is currently around 70%. That takes us to c70p. The value that I attach to TXP based on what the market knows right now is c60-70p. I'm still adding as I think we'll get close to that figure over the few months even without any further discovery at Cascadura. If Shell or anyone else is looking to put a bid in I suspect it will come shortly after the 2nd interval at Cascadura reports alongside potential reserve levels for the 1st interval. It may be that any possible bidders would wait until after Royston/Chinook results. A final thought - AIM is populated by short-term traders - we shouldn't expect TXP to be any different for those type of traders. I've held since last year and will keep holding quite a bit longer but some others won't. I remain very positive here but am avoiding a rose-tinted outlook.

'Shell 'evaluating development options' for field off Trinidad.
Decision comes as pressure mounts to increase gas production.'

The article refers to the Manatee field and is not about Trinidad as a whole - see the word 'off' and not 'of' Trinidad. Best to stay calm. However that's not to say that Shell won't know what's going on and be keeping an eye on things. I have no doubt that they will.

Just bought another 15k at 40p - the bid price at the time, allowing the MM's to drop the bid. Both of these 40p trades were buys not sells. Don't be fooled.

Could be NORTH? 500k trade just through.

Davidbw I agree absolutely. The MM's are trying to hold the sp down prior to Toronto open - I've sen them do this on other key days too. They've tried everything this morning to keep a lid on the sp but overall I would say that selling has been much less than you would see on any other share that rose 40% in a day. I'm waiting until 2.29 then will top up a bit more!

Dana Thanks for sensible posts. My own conservative 5500-6000 boepd is based on the interval tested not inlcuding the fruther intervals to be tested. There is much more news yet to come from Casacadura. Not only do we have the 450' net pay to be tested in 2-3 weeks time, we also have the remaining 150' of the GR7c middle thrust sheet and another 180' from the upper thrust sheet at GR7c still to come. I see none of this built into the current sp at c40p. There could be quite a way to go and even if they disappoint the current valuation remain sbelow where it is likely to settle once short-term moves have been made. That excludes Chinook and Royston whose CoS must now exceed the 35-40% quoted a few months back. Risk all appears to the upsdie to me and it is not too late to buy in here. I have added more today.

Very good news. Back of envelope calculation for me takes total net production attributable to TXP shareholders to around 5500-6000 boepd equivalent with more than half in gas. This is a conservative calculation. With the geo model proven and increasing confidence in future prospects including Royston and Chinook (there are many more remember) this should take the sp up to 50p in the coming weeks. There will be churn and short-term traders exiting but there is more news in the short and medium-term to come. I see why Paul felt he could talk critically about SPT in his interview yesterday. I'm holding on to these shares for quite some time.

Dana I agree - no fear factor in a placing for me if it accelerates future cash flow and adds a sticky holder to the books. This company is strong and getting stronger. Hope you get some sleep tonight! I think next week for news but who knows?

MM's seem to be short of stock today - could see some upward movement despite wider market issues.

Joseph being quite conservative with 3000boepd post-Coho (could be 3300-3400) and 4000boepd post-Cascadura by end 2020 (could be sooner - Paul said 3 months a while back although that was before the size of Casca became apparent). If a 2nd well is added at Coho (no risk) we could even reach 5000 by year end with a drilling programme based on a proven geo turbidite model over the next 5 years which coulud take the sp well above any figures talked on here to date by the end of the 5 year period. Definitely one to hold longer-term.

I share the optimisim of posters but also want to remind all that the GLJ CoS for Royston was 34%. Appreciate that may have changed but Royston/Chinook are not 95% CoS plays although given the skill PB has shown in the 1st 2 drills I see 34% as a minimum - could well be higher. Also think that results could be sooner than mid-Feb - maybe only 10 days away depending on how quickly equipment is put in place. Let's hope for a twitter photo.

Happysparrow On the basis of recent (in)action I have reluctantly come to the conclusion that I have been trying to avoid for a while that the BoD and AK are not acting in the interests of PI's. That's not to say that there won't be good returns for PI's here but that it is not at the forefront of the company's mind. II returns and self-interest/salaries are prominent. There have been too many examples of indifference towards PI's for me. I need to trust senior management to invest in a company and a week or 2 back decided that management with greater integrity and equal opportunity exist elsewhere. I believe that SAVP will produce very good returns for holders but trust is also important for me and knowing that the BoD has the backs of PI's. Good luck all.