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Eric
I wouldn't be surprised if it was the following w/c 9/3 but we will no doubt hear more on Tuesday in the webcast.
On trading today I've been tracking and there has been no problem buying/selliong other than at the start of day with a very wide spread when MM's didn't know what demand was going to be. I think some II's are offloading in London but maybe not in Toronto so we'll see a push up there and a push down here. Anyway, volume has dropped markedly today so no upward pressuer at the moment. Waiting a week or 2 for the start of news won't be too painful for me!
This is still a strong buy for me at this price but it's important I don't get too carried away. I read recently the average buyout premium is currently around 70%. That takes us to c70p. The value that I attach to TXP based on what the market knows right now is c60-70p. I'm still adding as I think we'll get close to that figure over the few months even without any further discovery at Cascadura. If Shell or anyone else is looking to put a bid in I suspect it will come shortly after the 2nd interval at Cascadura reports alongside potential reserve levels for the 1st interval. It may be that any possible bidders would wait until after Royston/Chinook results. A final thought - AIM is populated by short-term traders - we shouldn't expect TXP to be any different for those type of traders. I've held since last year and will keep holding quite a bit longer but some others won't. I remain very positive here but am avoiding a rose-tinted outlook.
'Shell 'evaluating development options' for field off Trinidad.
Decision comes as pressure mounts to increase gas production.'
The article refers to the Manatee field and is not about Trinidad as a whole - see the word 'off' and not 'of' Trinidad. Best to stay calm. However that's not to say that Shell won't know what's going on and be keeping an eye on things. I have no doubt that they will.
Davidbw I agree absolutely. The MM's are trying to hold the sp down prior to Toronto open - I've sen them do this on other key days too. They've tried everything this morning to keep a lid on the sp but overall I would say that selling has been much less than you would see on any other share that rose 40% in a day. I'm waiting until 2.29 then will top up a bit more!
Dana Thanks for sensible posts. My own conservative 5500-6000 boepd is based on the interval tested not inlcuding the fruther intervals to be tested. There is much more news yet to come from Casacadura. Not only do we have the 450' net pay to be tested in 2-3 weeks time, we also have the remaining 150' of the GR7c middle thrust sheet and another 180' from the upper thrust sheet at GR7c still to come. I see none of this built into the current sp at c40p. There could be quite a way to go and even if they disappoint the current valuation remain sbelow where it is likely to settle once short-term moves have been made. That excludes Chinook and Royston whose CoS must now exceed the 35-40% quoted a few months back. Risk all appears to the upsdie to me and it is not too late to buy in here. I have added more today.
Very good news. Back of envelope calculation for me takes total net production attributable to TXP shareholders to around 5500-6000 boepd equivalent with more than half in gas. This is a conservative calculation. With the geo model proven and increasing confidence in future prospects including Royston and Chinook (there are many more remember) this should take the sp up to 50p in the coming weeks. There will be churn and short-term traders exiting but there is more news in the short and medium-term to come. I see why Paul felt he could talk critically about SPT in his interview yesterday. I'm holding on to these shares for quite some time.
Dana I agree - no fear factor in a placing for me if it accelerates future cash flow and adds a sticky holder to the books. This company is strong and getting stronger. Hope you get some sleep tonight! I think next week for news but who knows?
Joseph being quite conservative with 3000boepd post-Coho (could be 3300-3400) and 4000boepd post-Cascadura by end 2020 (could be sooner - Paul said 3 months a while back although that was before the size of Casca became apparent). If a 2nd well is added at Coho (no risk) we could even reach 5000 by year end with a drilling programme based on a proven geo turbidite model over the next 5 years which coulud take the sp well above any figures talked on here to date by the end of the 5 year period. Definitely one to hold longer-term.
I share the optimisim of posters but also want to remind all that the GLJ CoS for Royston was 34%. Appreciate that may have changed but Royston/Chinook are not 95% CoS plays although given the skill PB has shown in the 1st 2 drills I see 34% as a minimum - could well be higher. Also think that results could be sooner than mid-Feb - maybe only 10 days away depending on how quickly equipment is put in place. Let's hope for a twitter photo.
Happysparrow On the basis of recent (in)action I have reluctantly come to the conclusion that I have been trying to avoid for a while that the BoD and AK are not acting in the interests of PI's. That's not to say that there won't be good returns for PI's here but that it is not at the forefront of the company's mind. II returns and self-interest/salaries are prominent. There have been too many examples of indifference towards PI's for me. I need to trust senior management to invest in a company and a week or 2 back decided that management with greater integrity and equal opportunity exist elsewhere. I believe that SAVP will produce very good returns for holders but trust is also important for me and knowing that the BoD has the backs of PI's. Good luck all.
I was tracking RSP (the detailed Level 2) this afternoon and it was obvious that following the 500k sell yesterday which kept a lid on things the MM's just don't have the shares to sell today. We will find another level where sellers will sell but prospects over the next 6-12 months are looking very good indeed.
Tracking back through today's trades there is no doubt in my mind that the MM's have pushed the sp back down to the level betwen 19-22p that many of the 16m shares were traded at a few days back. They need to dislodge new holders to plug the gap in the shares they have already sold (and they got a few sellers today). This will play out and the sp will rise - excellent buying opportunity for now. I'm still holding patiently.
I make it approx 50k more sells than buys today and yet a 1p drop in sp which shows the MMs remain keen to drop the sp and try to gather some of the shares they sold earliere in the week. They are still likely sweating. TXP has more of a profile now and if Coho doubles (or more) production, starting next Summer we should see a further sp rise tomorrow. Reassuring for me to see the company make the right decisions and be managed in such a professional manner. This is no get rich quick company or speculative investment. It is a solid grower now with excellent near term growth prospects.
I'm happy to be calmly adding more as the sp drops slowly. There will be news and this will shoot up - we can't predict when so waiting for the bottrom in my view is a risky approach. Buying on fear and when confidence is low pays most rewards.
If there is strong buying following the next RNS the MM's may just have to let this go. They pushed the sp down from 15p to 13p pre-RNS and have been trying to force it back under 20p despite haveing sold a lot more shares than they held. They are considerably short now and in trouble if there is strong buying on news. It's like a pressure cooker - it may pop or if buying is more muted they'll likely continue to try to grind the sp down gradually over time as PI's unfortunately have little patience and conviction in holding for the next few months. Cascadura testing is only 1-2 months away and will provide a big boost to those with patience.