Member Info for zeusfurla

The longer we wait the better in my view on casacadura. Dry wells are reported quickly. Strong chance of news this week but I'm not surprised there is a delay given the depth drilled - still a relatively new experience for the company. It really is an appraisal well in part so there willbe some oil - just waitin to see how much. Coho results will surely be banked as resources in the balance sheet by end Dec so just waiting patiently.

HS good to be reminded of the positives to come. It's II action that will move the sp and today despite a couple of large 100k sells the bid is edging up with Winterfloods currently looking to buy 200k at 23.21. Someone is still buying and believing in the prospects for SAVP.

Quite a few sells going through today but the sp is strengthening. No doubt in my mind that someone is hoovering up these shares at an attractive price. Whilst frustrated by slow progress on Niger we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that we have 7E in plae with a high degree of certainty of income stream going forward. Need to keep a balanced view and would like to hear more from AK on work programme for next 6-12 months.

JAdam I respect your posts and views - also helpful to me. When it comes to investment we all make our own decisions based on our opwn assessments of relevant factors. This is a tough time in the wider market, pre-election, Brexit, risk-off on O&G etc - none of this helps sentiment here. I believe this will bounce back - with 61p (WHI at 25% risked) and GMP (88p) mostly based on the value of Serenity, the best thing we can do is wait and not get too agitated about the short-term. The banks/lenders also want a solution here which maximises their return and they'll be discussing this soon with the company I have no doubt.

trytry I can vouch for the integrity of BBN over the year that I have read his posts. We all have out approach to managing our portfolios and I respect his decisions although in this case I remain invested. I also expect short-term headwinds but have a high confidence in the management team here due to the strength of Serenity and Lib West whatever reduced resource we end up with in Lib East. I have now come to terms with the view that there may still be a development at Lib East but the c$100m NAV I had hoped for may not be there to that extent - although I do strong;ly believe it is still NAV positive from the CPR phase 1 document.

In the absence of an RNS, the next best source of information is broker notes from companies that i3E retains. In my view the GMP and WH Ireland notes are giving pointers to what the RNS will say - thanks to posters over the last day who have added these to the BB. Given the sp action, most if not all downside from the A2 drill (at over 50% doen as I type) has been realised. It seems probable that A2 will result in a reduction in reserves for Lib East below the 23mmbls currently quoted. The BoD then has to decide whether to go ahead with a lesser Phase 1 (which if you look at the CPR Phase 1 document is viable and generates a positive NPV10 and IRR of at least 25% and possibly more) or to realign the programme and tilt it towards Serenity and Lib West. According to the GMP note, the migration risk to Lib West (the main risk identified) is reduced following A2. Serenity remains highly attractive to Repsol/RRE but would be more attractive if appraised, which would need a survey and would likely happen next Spring/Summer.

GMP now assume a 35% chance of Lib East Phase 1 happening and the sp I suggest reinforces the view that PI's believe this too. The risked NAV has reduced to 88p (still well above where we are today). I am encouraged by the final sentence which suggests that Junior Loan debt will convert to equity. If the BoD sets out a plan in the coming weeks along these lines - to focus on Serenity/Lib West - and to convert debt to equity for me this would clear the air and allow confidence to flow back into i3E. Phase 1 could still happen but I think the market and I now belive it is only possible not probable. Much greater rewards come from exploring/developing elsewhere and this would tie lenders into the company. Of course it also would provide an explanation for the low sp as the lower it goes the more the institutions benefit through conversion. This is only my view as a holder from before L2 and still holding a significant amount and happy to continue to do so.

Last half hour looked like some shorts closing with MM's happy to drop the sp to oblige.

Maybe 1 or 2 shorts closing?

Latino Good point. Plenty of trolls and new posters over the day couple of days. Best for all PI's to stick to the facts. RNS wording is approved by nomads. It wasn't the greatest yesterdya but still Majid said he was 'pleased.' Hold firm or sell out.

BWM and Garyn I think you are both forgetting that Lib Phase 1 already has sufficient NPV to go ahead no matter the result of this drill and that junior debt is in place. It may be that a lesser senior debt facility is required but Lib Phase 1 is highly likely to happen no matter the result of this drill. I think the BoD will gain very good value from the information from this drill whatever the wireline log shows. It wil create more certainty for what can come out of next year's drilling of Phase 1.

No need to scare holders with idle speculation. Just to repeat - Lib Phase 1 is not dependent on the wireline log results. It may put a dent on recoverable oil across Lib Phase 1 and result in a review of well locations though.

Worth taking a step back here in my view to look at the bigger picture. I welcome any challenge to my views as a chance to learn and understand this company better.

SP movements yesterday and today have been almost entirely focussed on the A2 RNS. This is a very small part of the potential recoverable resources that i3E has 100% ownership of. Liberator Phase 1 project economics per the 4 Nov slide presented by Majid are c$360m post-tax (NPV10). This is for all of Liberator East. We don't know the result of A2 - it's 50/50 or more likely a smaller value of recoverable oil than the company anticipated. I am going by memory here but the 23mmbls in Lib East was split over 3 or 4 wells say 5-7mmbls each. Taking the worst case scenario of no recoverable oil at A2 we may find that is now 16-17mmbls. I'm not sure what the NPV10 is for that but we know that 1 well alone has a positive NPV10 and is fundable from previous comments made by the company. So somewhere between say $100m and $250m NPV10 - this is a broad range as I don't know the answer to this but it is a decent figure on its own.

On Lib West, at 459mmbls STOIPP and mid-case recoverable 168mmbls - approx $1.5bn NPV10 per 4 Nov slides. Some risk to recovery here although migration not seen as a major risk by the company.
On Serenity, at 197mmbls STOIIP, equates to c70mmbls recoverable at 35%, a fairly conservative figure. Not sure what that means for NPV10 - given nearby FPSO and tie in to Tain it will be an attractive figure, likely in the hundreds of millions of dollars. I am looking forward to the company releasing more information on Serenity shortly following analysis of drill results. The company has also indicated that volumes are likely more than this (maybe much more).

Overall - Lib East - maybe 16mmbls
Lib West - 168mmbls
Serenity - 70mmbls
Overall NPV10 - over $2bn if all goes to plan. Current mcap c£20-33m(diluted). A big gap here.

Add all of this up and you get a very large figure. Of course the company has to secure funding for this and for Lib East initially, the weakest of the prospects. Do you really think that lenders will reject the opportunity to make this kind of return? Maybe there will be a slightly less favourable interest rate for i3E but this is Majid's area of expertise and contact, with around 3 years of discussion already on the RBL and junior debt.

The road to success is a rocky one but reviewing these figures I do not see this company as likely to go bust or agree to a very poor deal on Serenity with RRE/Repsol. The focus is far too much on the current drill and other elements of value in the company are being ignored by the market.

It's really tough to hold firm in these situations but that is what I am doing. This is not a get rich quick stock, althought from the last 2 days trading many have seen it that way. This is a pension builder.

These are my own views. Do your research carefully and invest with certainty and confidence once you

Ophidian

Catching up on all posts today as I missed most of it unfortunately. You called it right just before RNS. I think what we got was an RNS that basically says nothing - there may or may not be commercial oil.

What reassures me considerably is something I haven't seen discussed much if at all today and that is that recoverable oil from Serenity has likely been considerably understated. I appreciate that i3E plan to use Liberator East to fund Serenity and Lib West so need a reasonable result here or at next drill. However they have already said they can run with 1 production well next year - the risk of failure here is being grossly exaggerated. Although Serenity may be a distance away, a drill or 2 could add significant recoverable quantities of oil and oil that can be extracted a lot more easily than most new 'discoveries'.

I suspect tomorrow will be volatile whether the MM's decide to spike up or down start (they'll certainly do one or other). If they have stock to shift the sp may jump up but I am not guessing what winding path the sp will leave tomorrow.

Be careful all of what you read here. I've looked at a few posters who just appeared today and read what they posted elsewhere on LSE as well as their past success rates. No names but interestingly one apparently plausible poster seemed to get just about every prediction wrong. That told me something. GLA

offer currently 34.5p - any trades at this price are buys not sells. MM's still trying to drop sp to get some shares from PI's.

Agree. That was certainly the pattern a few days back around the 36s.

No stock to buy at 35.5 - MM's playing PI's here as usual. Actual offer on rsp is 36.0.

Phoebus It has felt to me like the MM's are trying to stock up on shares in advance of a push up over the next week. Apart from the current tree shake they have put a floor under the sp last week and have wanted to buy as far as I can see. No doubt though there are also placing moves going on. Perhaps conflicting MM approaches puching both ways?

In the absence of buying the MM's appear to have decided to spike this down a bit. Still awaiting news so no reason for dramatic moves up or down other than MM's making money.

As well as A2 results I am expecting an update based on additional information from the Serenity drill, which could also see an increase in potential oil from that field. This may be combined with A2 or separate but we have a fair bit of newsflow to come not just A2. The management team have done a great job of derisking the strategy here but pushing back the RBL decision, securing breathing space on funding and adding A4 as either a backstop to A2 or upside. This is not for selling on A2 in my view - quite a bit further to go.

O&W Ever had that feeling when you know a name but it won't come out? It wasn't Jessie Livermore but can't force my brain to tell me! A google search doesn't help so he can't be that famous.

NicetoMichu Thanks for your excellent post. I too have been thinking about AK's comments on it being retail PI's. Whilst technically he may be correct he should look at the trading in the weeks running up to 7E closure and strong PI buying. Larger market players have access to teams with more expertise than I have and PI's I suspect have been played here. This can happen in the short-term. Sometimes best to invest, keep researching and wait. Can't recall the name but a famous New York investor said that when asked his advice was 99% of the time to do nothing. AIM has become a bit frantic and it is harder and harder to do nothing. Quick profits over a period of a few weeks just are not a sensible approach to investing. GLA

Thanks for the link to the podcast - missed it live. Interesting to hear a bit about Fortune's background and to hear the narrative - again consistent with what has come before. This is just a great slow-burner of a success waiting to happen, a company taking the right decisions and methodically building a sound long-term business.