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Div That is also my understanding - 6 month lock-in.
Nice to michu - I agree with your wiuder point on AIM given current market sentiment but there is already strong II investment here and I believe that oil prices are going to rise in the next few months if you look at the fundamentals. No sector stays out of favour indefinitely although I do agree that being a fabulous value proposition does not guarantee short-term sp appreciation - it can take a while to get there. For SAVP it is too early to say 1 day after 7E completes - next week could be quite different - there is still decent volume around.
I too think there is potential for upside at Coho-1. The figures Paul quoted from previous flow rates did not include a 2nd layer of snads which we have this time round. I'm expecting top end of the range he quoted (or maybe just above). We need the publicity of a strong news release in this market with sentiment so poor. New investors required to supplement our hardy bunch.
I thought it worth reviewing all the trades today and manually assessing these as objectively as I could into buys and sells. Having the benefit of RS through the day was a help although I wasn't online for the duration. What I found was similar to the last week or so, an excess of buys over sells, with a few odd trades (like the 100k sells we've been getting recently). I make it approx 3.3m buys to 1.7m sells today with c 600k trades that could go either way. The sp of course fell and it was obviously after some early trading that this would happen. There are legitimate or illegitimate reasons for this. Legitimate - MM's I understand have up to 3 days to print larger trades, or longer if it is a trade that needs to be executed over multiple days (eg sell 20m SAVP at best price or whatever). It could be an institution selling down or a major shareholder (less likely but possible) Then there are the reasons which really run the market - those which line the pockets of the MM's. One contender here is for them to try to get hold of as many shares as they can to fill the gap caused by a week of big buying by PI's and make a profit by buying at as low a price as they can manage. That would mean there are more days of pain to come even with excess buying. It didn't work today though as we had more buys again. I've seen this done elsewhere though and it can go on a long time. News and new buyers can stop this. There are other theories but it is important to recognise that the company will attain closer to its true value in due course, particularly if as Andrew says Jeffreys and Numis are focussing on getting the message out to II's. That is an attractive story given the low sp at present.
I wonder when we'll see an updated broker note. Also recall Andrew's comment on news flow - there is more to come this year but the company-making transaction is finally complete and that provides the cash to drive SAVP's development.
RNS out - a day quicker than we thought.
NicetoMichu Thanks for your comments - its' good to hear a variety of views. I agree that at the moment both II's and indeed PI's (through ETF's as well as individual shares) are pulling out of the O&G sector. The question is what happens when the already very wide valuation gap for O&G stocks becomes more public, will II's or PI's do anything about it? Will the 'value' play for O&G come back into fashion? I believe that it will but it may take time. However, what reassures me here is future global supply and demand projections for oil. I am bullish on this over the xt year never mind 2 (unless we see a global crash). Oil usage has grown quite a bit in the last 2 years and US shale growth is slowing quite significantly this year. As well as Nigeria gas income being largely underwritten, oil price recovery I believe will drive investors back into this sector. We may not get back to pre-2015 levels but we don't need to do that to see the kind of valuations Zengas has carefully constructed.
trytryandagain Agree with you that stock is looking a bit tight. MM's lacking a bit of direction this afternoon and I think they were happy to keep sp under control. More buying could push this up in a day or 2 - looking positive.
Repeat of this morning - 35.4 to sell, only 35.37 to buy.
Sankeys Back to your earlier post today on buying easily at 34p. I've been testing the buys in the last 1/2 hour and seen something I haven't seen before in my 6 months of using RSP on L2. Invariably what you see on RSP is what you get quoted when you make a buy or sell. Not today. This is even more devious behanviour from the MM's imho. Just now the offer is 34.7p. On RSP the most you can buy is 2,500 shares from Winterfloods. However, I have just bought almost 15k shares at 34.7p. I suspect strongly that these are Peel Hunt shares and that they are not quoting on the RSP platform. What this says to me is that they still likely have more shares to sell but want to give the impression to the market that shares are sparse, leading to upward sp pressure allowing them to offload more of their shares (and make atheir commission). I coud be wrong and sometimes am - just my theory but obviously deceptive behaviour and completely confirms your coments on shares being easy to buy earlier - I never had any doubt but at least I now know why I didn't see what you were seeing.
Yachtmaster Agreed. And the more they pay the more likely we have a rising investment here (if we can think medium-term in AIM terms ie next week!). VWAP won't drop much if we close the transaction in a day or 2 given that volumes are well down.
Div We've had significant buying since last week - agreed. I use RSP on L2 on and off through the day to get a more realistic feel for what real buys and sells are going through although of course the MM's try to obscure this whenever they can. I'm confident we have had considerably more buys than sells over that period. If the MM's are short and don't have access to a pool of shares on completion we would see a rise - nothing is certain on AIM however.
Yachtmaster I have no doubt that MM's are being rewarded for pushing this down. From a quick scan today I estimate 350k buys and 275k sells (of which 3x 50k look suspiciously like MM drop-ins as we have seen in the last few days). So more buying than selling and the sp drops, along with vwap. I wonder who benefits from that?
The same bid and offer price can allow the MM's to obscure what is really going on. My guess is that we will see some more decent sized round number sells or 2 around 34p which I believe are going into the MM's back pockets for the imminent re-rate. This is just my theory and I accept there are other possible explanations.
Sankeys I am no expert on L2 but report exactly what I see on RSP which is a real-time quote service for MM's amongst other things. It is possible to buy at 34p if that is the stated offer price but only to EMS max without a phone call to your broker. I don't track RSP every minute of the day as I have a day job but from what I saw the overwhelming majority of trades at the offer price were sells not buys. It may be that the MM's were flitting around with bid/offer prices to mislead (would they do such a thing?) but I stand by my view that today has seen mostly selling at the offer price.
On the VOX podcast of 8 November Andrew Knott said after Court approval, it will take c2 days for the mechanics of the deal to be done, then we move into growth mode. Given the more aggressive behaviour of algo's and MM's today they may only have 2 days to try to push the sp down a bit. Buying not so strong as many will have taken positions in the past week. Excited about imminent news on 1st oil and drilling . I'm quite happy to wait for farm-out news - it needs to be the right deal and SAVP are negotiating with top quality advisors from a position of strength in my view.