Member Info for zeusfurla

Thanks NicetoMichu and Kalan. All views welcome. Most posters are holders so we can be rose-tinted. On AIM market generally I compared AIM all-share performance to FTSE All Share today and interestingly although AIM has underperformed by c10% over the last year it is close to parity over 1 and 3 months and 3 years and better over 5 years. Are we in a cyclical pattern or is AIM in terminal decline? Too early to say but flat over last 3 months could turn positive with a more risk-on atmosphere say post US-China trade deal (if it comes).

Also worth looking at Canada - quite high volume so far today and at a price in the 14s so 15.5 may not reflect where we are going tomorrow. Care required.

O&W I can't believe for a minute that there is nothing ready to kick off. A steady newsflow was what we were promised. AK is not responsible for the market reaction being negative. As shareideas says could be an II divesting for good reason. We know the value is there and I remember as I'm sure many do the 12p days - that was hell. This is not - this is short-term frustration that we know will be resolved. I've held firm today and was too slow for the 22.3 buy trades that I tried to get - autos beat me to it!

I am also calm about today's trading. We saw net sells yesterday of approx 1.3m and the sp didn't move much, then a 500k trade today which seemed to mark the end of MM's wanting to buy shares. The selling continued today (very few buys) and so the MM's have dropped the sp - they don't want to carry any more shares - they presumably have accumulated a few for the uptick which will come. Short-term expectation I think has been the issue for PI's, with significant buying in the run-up to 7E closure (but not significant sp appreciation) when many thought the sp would leap up - I also thought we were heading for the 30s. We still are but just not this week. Mcap over £200m and FCF from now, approx £120m pa - with a simple operating model and plenty opportunity for growth. This is a stick-on investment. I really feel for those PI's who had to sell today as funds may have been needed. Others, like myself, just need to remain patient. It won't be long before we see the sp jumping up. Best time to buy is when you feel emotionally bashed like today. I am sure we will have newsflow pre-Xmas which will be positive. Sentiment changes so quickly just now especially in O&G sector, which is still expected to grow by 2%pa + for the next decade.

MM's have decided to follow Canadian lead and maybe our seller is done? Similar buying volume to another recent day where the sp didn't move but I'm not complaining. Still quite a way to go to fair value. Paul set out newsflow clearly in the interviews this week - Casca TD in c 2weeks with Coho full gas test results to follow - this will solidify initial results from Monday. Loking positive for next month or 2.

I suspect that most PI's have taken positions in advance of the next drill results so volume appears to be low. I have a small niggle in the back of my mind that we could see a Serenity focussed RNS on co-operation with Tain operators/owners at any time although more likely after drill results than before. The calm before the storm here?

Good views on current sp - it is certainly out of sync in the UK compared to Canada. On RSP there is a significant quantity of stock available despite approx 450k more real buys than sells today (based on my manual analysis). Yesterday was broadly neutral. Seems like the sp is lower than it should be - perhaps a buy being filled as suggested. I topped up this morning. As I've mentioned before O&G sentiment remains very poor but there is getting to be a real value mismatch here. Anyone buying now and prepared to wait a few months will do well.

Div That is also my understanding - 6 month lock-in.
Nice to michu - I agree with your wiuder point on AIM given current market sentiment but there is already strong II investment here and I believe that oil prices are going to rise in the next few months if you look at the fundamentals. No sector stays out of favour indefinitely although I do agree that being a fabulous value proposition does not guarantee short-term sp appreciation - it can take a while to get there. For SAVP it is too early to say 1 day after 7E completes - next week could be quite different - there is still decent volume around.

I too think there is potential for upside at Coho-1. The figures Paul quoted from previous flow rates did not include a 2nd layer of snads which we have this time round. I'm expecting top end of the range he quoted (or maybe just above). We need the publicity of a strong news release in this market with sentiment so poor. New investors required to supplement our hardy bunch.

I thought it worth reviewing all the trades today and manually assessing these as objectively as I could into buys and sells. Having the benefit of RS through the day was a help although I wasn't online for the duration. What I found was similar to the last week or so, an excess of buys over sells, with a few odd trades (like the 100k sells we've been getting recently). I make it approx 3.3m buys to 1.7m sells today with c 600k trades that could go either way. The sp of course fell and it was obviously after some early trading that this would happen. There are legitimate or illegitimate reasons for this. Legitimate - MM's I understand have up to 3 days to print larger trades, or longer if it is a trade that needs to be executed over multiple days (eg sell 20m SAVP at best price or whatever). It could be an institution selling down or a major shareholder (less likely but possible) Then there are the reasons which really run the market - those which line the pockets of the MM's. One contender here is for them to try to get hold of as many shares as they can to fill the gap caused by a week of big buying by PI's and make a profit by buying at as low a price as they can manage. That would mean there are more days of pain to come even with excess buying. It didn't work today though as we had more buys again. I've seen this done elsewhere though and it can go on a long time. News and new buyers can stop this. There are other theories but it is important to recognise that the company will attain closer to its true value in due course, particularly if as Andrew says Jeffreys and Numis are focussing on getting the message out to II's. That is an attractive story given the low sp at present.

I wonder when we'll see an updated broker note. Also recall Andrew's comment on news flow - there is more to come this year but the company-making transaction is finally complete and that provides the cash to drive SAVP's development.

RNS out - a day quicker than we thought.

NicetoMichu Thanks for your comments - its' good to hear a variety of views. I agree that at the moment both II's and indeed PI's (through ETF's as well as individual shares) are pulling out of the O&G sector. The question is what happens when the already very wide valuation gap for O&G stocks becomes more public, will II's or PI's do anything about it? Will the 'value' play for O&G come back into fashion? I believe that it will but it may take time. However, what reassures me here is future global supply and demand projections for oil. I am bullish on this over the xt year never mind 2 (unless we see a global crash). Oil usage has grown quite a bit in the last 2 years and US shale growth is slowing quite significantly this year. As well as Nigeria gas income being largely underwritten, oil price recovery I believe will drive investors back into this sector. We may not get back to pre-2015 levels but we don't need to do that to see the kind of valuations Zengas has carefully constructed.

trytryandagain Agree with you that stock is looking a bit tight. MM's lacking a bit of direction this afternoon and I think they were happy to keep sp under control. More buying could push this up in a day or 2 - looking positive.

Repeat of this morning - 35.4 to sell, only 35.37 to buy.

Having said that, Peel Hunt are now at top of the bid. This could feel like a turning point although never say never in my book.

According to RSP Peel Hunt have plenty stock and Shore Capital have very little so a stand-off.

Sankeys Back to your earlier post today on buying easily at 34p. I've been testing the buys in the last 1/2 hour and seen something I haven't seen before in my 6 months of using RSP on L2. Invariably what you see on RSP is what you get quoted when you make a buy or sell. Not today. This is even more devious behanviour from the MM's imho. Just now the offer is 34.7p. On RSP the most you can buy is 2,500 shares from Winterfloods. However, I have just bought almost 15k shares at 34.7p. I suspect strongly that these are Peel Hunt shares and that they are not quoting on the RSP platform. What this says to me is that they still likely have more shares to sell but want to give the impression to the market that shares are sparse, leading to upward sp pressure allowing them to offload more of their shares (and make atheir commission). I coud be wrong and sometimes am - just my theory but obviously deceptive behaviour and completely confirms your coments on shares being easy to buy earlier - I never had any doubt but at least I now know why I didn't see what you were seeing.

Ophidian I had 823p - how did you get the extra 9p?? Must go back to my calcs....

Yachtmaster Agreed. And the more they pay the more likely we have a rising investment here (if we can think medium-term in AIM terms ie next week!). VWAP won't drop much if we close the transaction in a day or 2 given that volumes are well down.