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Ophidian I wonder if we are about to see the end of the First Island sale? Alfa had c400k per day excess of buys - this month that could be 4m by my rough calculation which takes us to the magic 33m figure when added to your 29m figure? It would also explain the accelerated downturn in sp in the last week or 2 if we are at the end of the sell-off? This seems like a plausible explanation to me. I'll be turning the kids piggy banks upside down this afternoon just in case.........

'South Africa's Energy Transition' is obviously a hot seller - only 1 copy left at £45 on Amazon, unless you can read on kindle. I'll be going down the kindle route. Thanks for the recommendation Alfa.

Earthling I'm going with IG which gives better info at lesser cost but you need to be a costomer with 10k invested as far as I know. Sad to see Moneyam go.

wombles The reversal of shorts and the end of our large seller selling will make a big difference. It's just not possible to say when that will happen so better to stay focussed on the fundamental value of BMN. If SP Angel's fairly conservative target sp of 87p is a reasonable assumption for some time this year does it matter if you buy at 31p or 29p or 35p if we end up at 87p? It's a judgement call when you buy but if you have done your research and believe in the underlying fundamental value of the company that is more important than the exact timing of trades, which even the best investors can't get right consistently. Good luck.

Shorters selling at 31p are taking quite a big risk in my view for a tiny return.

Hi Wolfman_Jack I tracked every buy and sell today and came to an informed view based on what I saw. 0.8-1m is my best guess but the only people who know are those who shorted. I looked at the timing of large buys and sells eg early in the day and large sells close together which drove the sp down. That could also be a coincidence but there was enough of a pattern to see that some shorting was going on. I don't pretend to say this is an exct figure and am happy for others to comment. Why it is important is that these shorts have been bought in the expectation of further sp falls and they will need to unwind at some point. If the sp goes up for example due to a well-received RNS there is a feedback effect and the rise accelerates. If the sp goes down, other shorts may be placed which doubles down on the shorters' positions and when these unwind the rise is even more rapid. Ultimately fundamentals will determine the sp - I just don't want PI's to sell for the wrong reasons. For the last couple of weeks there has been shorting going on and in addition we still have a volume seller whose trades have not been declared. These are the 2 factors which are currently more than offsetting the positive sentiment and prospects of many holders. For info, I am a holder, I don't short and I only trade at the margins. I also hold other stocks but believe BMN has a long way to go.

LS I imagine the Q4 BE update this month will confirm that the battery has been handed over to Eskom for testing. Evidence that BMN can deliver as we already know that the battery is working and being commissioned by BMN at the moment. Only Bushveld has the beneficiation and the battery and soon to start constructing the electrolyte factory.

Pdub Good news about your early operation and I hope it goes well. Good luck.

Worth remembering exactly why we have a new infestation tonight given that c0.8m short sells happened this afternoon. That's over £250k. They will be sweating and hoping for a further sp drop tomorrow. I wouldn't dare predict any individual day or week's sp action - far too risky but each to their own. Best to recall that's why the sp dropped today. Why do I say that? You just have to look at the timing of the large sells today. If you were an investor looking to maximise your returns you wouldn't cluster a series of sells together to drive the sp down...........but if you are a shorter, that's exctly what you would do. I urge anyone to look for yourself at the pattern of buys and sells today and make up your own mind. I'd hate to see some PI's selling for the wrong reasons. The fundamentals remain incredibly strong and at some point, likely in the next few weeks, the sp will catch up with this. All imho.

Burst of sells late in the day which I think conclusively shows that Bushveld has been the subject of a serious short attack this afternoon. I estimate (best guess here since none of us has the facts) that over 1m shares have been shorted today at prices from 31.5p to the 33's. Excluding shorts buys likely still exceeded sells by c0.5m. For those shorting late in the day they'll need the sp to drop further to make their money back and make a profit. The problem for those shorting the shares is twofold. Although there has been a dearth of news lately I am expecting a BE update this month which will likely announce the commissioning of the battery for Eskom by BMN and the handover to Eskom for testing. This is proof of concept and is significant news for Bushveld. Other news is also due soon. The 2nd issue for shorters is that buys are still exceeding sells on at least 3/4 of recent trading days. To keep the sp falling more shorting needs to happen which digs a deeper hole for those shorting. It may even be that recent downward pressure on the sp is playing into the hands of MM's. I recall a recent short at c42p being turned around very quickly when the MM's decided this was going to happen. They may be quite happy to see the sp falling in recent weeks. All imho.

Buys are still in positive territory despite possible shorting. Maybe if sells exceed buys the sp will go up in this topsy-turvy world? I thought I had the hang of this! Market makers do like to move the sp around a bit to generate action and make money - we may be seeing a bit of this today again.

Daisan I think shorting at 40p may have been a better choice in hindsight. Quite a bit more risky at this share price.

1onic - It is possible to short on Spreadex and other platforms. 'Guff' may be your opinion but respectfully it is not mine.

I've manually tracked all the buys and sells today (conservatively) and here is what I see:

buys 1.4m
sells 1.3m

However, there is almost certainly another short attack going on today - I see at least 200k net sells for larger volumes excluding fatbanker. What appears to be happening is that some of those who shorted when the sp was a bit higher (high 30p's) are getting out but there some new shorters also appearing. In addition, given that buys exceed sells at 15:14, the sp has dropped quite a bit which to me indicates that there is more background selling going on that has not yet been declared, possibly from our tame seller. We are close to the equilibrium point where shorters have to buy back in and when that happens the sp will rise quickly. If I had a crystal ball I'd guess when this could happen but I don't. Instead I have topped up this morning in the 33's and this afternoon in the 32's. All IMHO.

Dav3J I recall a post a few days back saying that the tender process was due to end for the plant I think this week. Not sure that any building has started but it can't be far away and it cant be a complex plant to put together I'd imagine.

RK The presentation shows an increasing slickness more in tune with the £400m company they have become in a very short timescale. It's important that the organisational structure of the company continues to evolve in line with the fast growth in the bottom line and Fortune refers to this in his presentation. That is always a risk for fast-growing companies although Bushveld is in the incredibly fortunate position of not having to worry about working capital to grow the business as they have oodles of it.

Knuttie I agree and also recall Ophidian's post that even if you are not a believer or user in TA surely as an investor you should be aware of others that do use these techniques as they influence the direction of sp movements.

Thanks for posting. This is a superb presentation by Fortune. Listening to it he has so much to say and ic clearly under time pressure - only 10 minutes and he does a fantastic job of telling the BMN story. I am getting excited just listening to this - there is so much upside potential here. My takeaways are:

- Brits Q1 resource news coming
- Mokopane licence 'expected in the near-term.' It has 'really strong economics'
- Capital allocation and dividend policy coming in Q1
- VRFB battery commissioning in the near future - 'expect news'
- shareholders dominated by retail investors, Institutional Investors growing
- cash generating business
- 'growth is truly exciting'
- 10000mtv vanadium due in thye medium term both organically and from M&A
- 'multiple revenue streams' from BE and vanadium
- currently building an electrolyte plant in East London for low cost production of electrolyte
- VRFB's - intend to assemble and meet demand across Africa not just SA
- 70-80% SA content/labour etc is 'a fantastic story to tell for SA'
- 'develop and deploy VRFB's is a game-changer to open up the VRFB market space'
- standards in China are being enforced much more rigorously - should increase vanadium demand by 30% in 2019
- energy storage market for VRFB's expected to grow from 2% now to 44% by 2030
- vanadium supply is concentrated and constrained in SA, Brazil and Australia but SA has the best grades and scale of deposits
- Bushveld is the best exposure to vanadium as a commodity

Brilliant reminder of where we are and I think all of this to me explains why comms is sometimes lacking. There is just so much to do for a growing company that they are spending their time on getting things done rather than designing RNS's. I'm more than happy with my investment here and looking forward to a very positive 2019.

pb940 Thanks for the interesting article. It suggests that beneficiation has perhaps not worked as well as intended in recent years. I can't help thinking that Bushveld is well-placed to be a model of best practice in beneficiation as we develop VRFB's, adding value and creating jobs. This chimes very well with Ramaphosa's agenda for investment and growth which has been repeatedly affirmed in recent months.

It wouldn't take much to push the sp back to 37.8 where the first 100k sits on the offer. If our buyers are back today we will see a rise.