Member Info for zeusfurla

If the PEA has been delayed due to Nick's ego and greed (not saying it has) then I will be very disappointed. This will all come out in the wash this month. I still hope that the delay is due to additional drilling/exploration info still to be added or discussions with potential lenders etc.We should have received updates some time ago on drilling imho. All shareholders expect to be treated with respect for confidence in management to be retained. I am beginning to doubt management not the asset which remains great!

Nick I agree with your thoughts. Fundamentals always win through in the end although as we know we can't say on which day! I am really encouraged by Ramaphosa's recent statements not just on Eskom but more broadly on investment in SA and in encouraging the mining industry. Bushveld can do so much for the economy of the country through employment and exports. Can't be too many companies with no debt generating huge cashflow with almost all the risk to the upside.

Daisan I see a couple of delayed sells coming through which go partway to explain the sp drops earlier this afternoon and confirm your view. The overall pattern of the last few weeks remains highly suspect.

AdamP100 Evidence please for your comments otherwise just speculation.

Just to further update - the last 11 trades comprise - 8 buys and 3 sells. 150k bought to 50k sold. And the offer price has gone from 34.16p to 34.09p. Fallen again! Daisan - if your theory is right we will see a delayed sell being posted shortly of at least 150-200k. Meantime the sp continues to fall on buying activity. Good news for those buying who can wait a few weeks to take an easy profit.

Daisan On this occasion and on several others recently it is clear that unpublished sells are not the reason for the sp falling. On the period I covered earlier the offer gradually reduced whilst the bid held firm (admittedly only on the 1 sell!). It is clear that MM's are trying to push the SP down, possibly in the same way they did in the run-up to 21 Dec, to allow them to build up a bank of shares from those who choose to sell. These can then be used once the large seller clears. Given that this week's sp moves have been increasingly further removed from actual trades I'd speculate that this period of large selling is close to an end. That is usually when extra downward pressure is applied by MM's as we are seeing this week. I agree that the nature of the selling has changed since 40p and that, perhaps due to the absence of Golden Summit in the last week or 2, buying pressure has been reduced. However, Alfa's excellent analysis should leave no-one in any doubt. Buys are exceeding sells by several million since the New Year. We have to be patient and await the publishing of a large sell trade in the near future. Thanks for your helpful posting amongst some of the other posts today which have no evidence base.

I should have said 88k buys and 14 buys. Can't type quick enough!

12 trades - 11 buys, 1 sell. 60k bought, 25k sold.
offer price 20 minutes ago - 34.27p - offer price now (after excess buying) - 34.11p - a fall!

That is a common pattern over the last few days.

Don't trust those that say the sp is falling due to selling. There are other things going on here that we don't know about that MM's do. This behaviour and patterns are being carefully followed. You can explain 1 instance of the above but where it keeps happening it is more difficult to defend.

1onic Thanks for the platform advice - I currently use IG spreadbetting for buying longs on BMN and have spoken to them often - as you say great customer service. It is not unusual for the market in BMN to close (eg on spreadex) due to the maximum longs being in place - a highly encouraging sign I'd say! Last I looked IG was 100% long on BMN with no shorts.

I'll likely switch to IG later this month when MoneyAM shuts down. It has a good quality interface.

The last 100k trades through are all buys. This is not a straight market and hasn't been for a while. Once our large seller is gone this will move up quickly. The current sp bears no resemblance to reality - as Alfa's excellent trade analysis which we all benefit from in recent weeks has shown.

Don't be fearful - the MM's are relying on you to sell when the sp is low!

1onic Thanks. Can I ask which platform you are using? I am in the market for a new one and recommendations welcome.

Ophidian Could these 50k's (another 2 at 35p above the offer) be inter-MM transfers to confuse the market?

1onic Happy for you to share your knowledge with the board on who is quoting this week. L2 is all I have.

Ophidian Winterflood, Cantor and Berenberg all at 34.5 all morning. Peel Hunt selling at 35 and they have been more active recently - had previously been Cantor selling for a while.

I like the RNS although somewhat unconventional. It will appeal to a decent number of CGP holders who felt ignored by the CGP response. Also clarifies the ownership issue at least as far as SOLG is concerned.

SOTRR Agreed. The current SP reflects the large seller in the background who will be finally revealed one day. On the plus side, so many of these shares being sold will be in sticky hands that value for Bushveld is much more likely to be realised. As said many times before on this board we have to be patient. Short-term movements on the SP can't be predicted with any certainly but in the longer term (even a few months) value will be reflected, and likely to happen quite suddenly.

Alfa A great question on VRFB's and an important one to be able to answer. Unfortunately it's well out of my knowledge zone despite my finance background! This is a more specialist area.

If you use an oil production company as an example, hedging is undoubtedly of value and has been very effectively used recently by Jadestone Energy amongst others. What are the differences between oil and vanadium (apart from the obvious)? There are many producers of oil and few of vanadium, even 5-10 years down the line. Oil pricing is volatile and political, vanadium is highly volatile and not so political (at the moment). Electrolyte introduces another variable. How do you value vanadium in the future if we reach a point where, for example, 1/2 is used for electrolyte and 1/2 for steel rebar? As the electrolyte is effectively an asset that doesn't depreciate it should be valued differently to vanadium for steel rebar. It has an indefinite income stream and I'd expect cost recovery for electrolyte to be over a longish period. Companies will compete on this. All companies want to make an IRR of say 15-25+% but this would be achieved very differently through the sale of vanadium say as Nitrovan or leasing electrolyte. I haven't got the answers to this but would expect significantly increased mining of vanadium a decade from now and wide applications for VRFB's in practice. I would imagine that as vanadium mining and VRFB creation grew there would be a product called vanadium futures that would start to be traded when the time was right. All best speculation on my part. This could be a long debate!

Hi Yachty It would be great if a mining license for Brits appeared soon - do you have a source for this? The maintenance work ongoing at Vametco at present will lift throughput in 2019 and beyond - we await a revised production target for 2019. However this won't take us over 10,000mtV in the next few years as is expected. A brownfield purchase is one route to achieve that although better investors than me have tried to second guess Fortune - not easy to do!

Just thinking about the timing of a possible brownfield purchase if that were to happen (who knows?). Given the clever deal done with Vametco I'd be looking to close a deal before the price of vanadium took off if it is something Fortune is looking at ie in the next few weeks. Difficult though to see a deal as good as last time being on the table again.

http://www.polity.org.za/article/sona-cheatsheet-9-things-to-look-out-for-in-ramaphosas-speech-2019-02-07

Article giving some preamble on Cyril Ramaphosa's State of the Nation speech later today. Post-Zuma things are improving but still plenty of positions to balance as always for a politician.