Member Info for Zanab

I'm going to put forward an unpopular question with both sides: is Greggs simply fairly valued now?

Opulentia, I wouldn't be too sure that indicates JD sales will be good. The explanation I read behind good supermarket sales over Xmas was that food inflation reduced demand for other discretionary spending. It makes sense when you think about it. But who knows?

I'm not sure about the situation there . If you have a source you could share, that would be great, Tony

It's my understanding that variable pay linked to performance means in reality that these people are receiving more and will continue to receive more regardless.

It's clear that sales are growing in a tough environment, so motivation is not an issue it would seem. I will have to dig into the numbers to test what you've said.

The government has had a large hand in where the pay rises went recently; that's common knowledge.

Alfista, correct, but the growth was significantly above the performance of the market. That l4l in Topps stayed at 2% and that total growth in the second half of the q on last year's is not something to be taken lightly given that the second half of the first quarter saw excellent growth in 2025. This is against a gloomy backdrop. Topps appears to be a winner, get on board is what I say.

On business rates, I looked at the estate last year and almost all of the sample I looked at put the stores in the to-benefit category. Topps stores are not premium real-estate generally. That said, the warehouses etc will likely be, so it is likely to be at least neutral.

Yep, consolidating share in a downturn is a good thing in my book. What is widely known is that the operational gearing here means that a greater proportion of sales as they grow will be profit, enhancing margin. If the market picks up, then profits will increase significantly. I think the CFO gave an indication of the profit enhancement from incremental sales a year or so ago. It may be slightly dated, but they've widely publicised it.

I understand you are sceptical, but at what point will you acknowledge seeing evidence against your beliefs? You can claim CTD affected things this year, but any good signs this year and you surely have to accept that you may have erred.

Yep, my valuation doesn't even bake that in, but if they get the lower-end, then this is worth > £1, plus dividends on the way. Crazy cheap imo.

I know I'm talking to myself mostly, but Topps would be my pick of the year, given my humble understanding of businesses.

If someone wants to shoot me down, please peddle your picks ;).

That growth is present across all the businesses is very encouraging. Any secular market pick-up, and this grows wings imo.

Good performance. It's as if the tile market is picking up and was cyclical after all.

I would have liked a bit more flesh on FE, but the words are positive. Looking good for another div increase. How small fund managers didn't spot this and put it in their portfolios, maybe they did, I won't know last year.

Sorry, went back to my notes. I had a 5m inflow net of FE acquisition and a reduced CTD outflow. Any profit will be a bonus.

Or rather, a reduced outflow if TWH gets to BE. *

Yes, that is the 5m I was referring to. I was aware about the nature, but there was some ambiguity to my message. As the main of the CTD costs are not operating costs then a lot of that 5m is very likely to be near-certain.

A small inflow if TWH gets to break-even too.

Let's see. I can see a distribution model working well with FE. There's always the option to open a store or two if it makes sense, I guess too. Your thoughts are basically what I thought, and it is potentially very high margin on that basis.

Thanks, Z.

I'd be interested in your thoughts about FE. It's not a brand I know a great deal about

TT, yep, it was a rather quick rise, and I don't know why it moves like it does, but it does feel like if the profit potential comes good then this could shoot up a lot very quickly.

I definitely agree that wage costs are a factor and need to have an eye kept on them but a greater proportion of revenues will be driven by online than in prior years, and that will hopefully offer some mitigation there.

I don't know the parameters of the pay incentives, but maybe they find some flex there. Obviously, we want the staff to be motivated and rewarded for good sales performance so I'm not sure If bee too keen to fiddle with that. I'm sure they look at staffing.

The big thing for me that has not been talked about is the increased cashflow from CTD for this year compared to next. That's worth 5m on a break-even basis alone. Some has been spent on FE, but even a modest increase in sales for the year supports another divi increase imo.

Yeah, the government are again not creating the best environment for a thriving economy. That being said, housing affordability will be up, inflation hopefully down and interests rates down. A marginal increase in unemployment may occur, but I hate to talk about macroeconomics as I generally don't have a clue what will happen.

Also, I got the impression that the new CEO was very sales-focused. That could bode well. Any significant increase in the new markets could boost the sales in an otherwise tepid economy. If the housing market picks up then I wouldn't be surprised to be pushing 60s by year-end, which would still likely give a good 5% yield for any investor or fund buying in at that level.

It looks like a decent volume is coming in after the drag down.

I'm not expecting fireworks from the update next week, but it will be good to hear how things are going obviously. I'm particularly interested in the FE execution. Profitable from this year was the statement last time.

TT, I ditched almost all my card long before that. I bought my Topps long before the rise. My average price is just over 33p. I sold a small amount at 48p before the dividend.

I think 3p is almost certain. I'm hoping for a 10% yield on my average but may have to wait a year.

Let's see. Even a continuation of profitability at current level would not be a tragedy, but I expect lower average margins to be recovered and profitability pick up.

They managed to get FiredEarth up and running quickly.

Yep, that's the market. Always reactive and short-term. Just keep your research good and buy and sell as the opportunites arise.

It was a very strange rise. I know that the market just looks at the short-term and around 45p was the level I expect it to float. That it went 10% above that was a surprise and I sold a little as said. It worked out, even giving up the div on those shares.

Yep. They'll only temporarily increase EPS until They're given away.

FY19: the ordinary dividend was around 9p. That excludes the special. Imagine how a holder feels.

When the acquisition is sorted? There is no evidence this management can operate an online business though, and FP has been stagnant and is a minnow compared to MP.

Yes, large investors did want a small dividend. This is a company that should be paying out at least 2/3rds of its earnings a year. Face it, management have made bad decisions with the money. We all know cost inflation has been difficult , but they decided to buy things. If you actually look at it, they have destroyed a significant portion of value.

An uniformed guess would be that they've realised they pooed the bed and are finally doing what private investors have been telling them to for years to enhance EPS.

But it's too late for redemption. They could have repurchased around 30-40% of the shares had they not paid any dividends and made no acquisitions. EPS could have been closer to 20p. They decided they didn't care about our opinions and wanted an empire, fools!

Possibly, but less than 1% of the estate is not profitable. That's an excellent position, so I can't see a deluge of closures on the card.

Yeah, this is what I've been telling people for a long time. Once they have they market, they'll jack up the prices.

Amazon is convenient but it's not cheap anymore. Their often more expensive