Member Info for ynotdeal

Hi singy I totally understand shareholders frustrations. Believe me we also feel that too. But it doesnt help us for people to be continually shouting and threatening legal actions at Alan and directors that werent even there when these issues arose. Alan must be spending most of his time with his legal team and not looking for a solution to our issues. It totally distracts him. Every sentence about legal action on here probably costs him an hour of his time in conference. Yes more information would be great, but at the moment the whole thing is in flux and changing by the day. Alan cannot release information that is changing and made up of half truths, as infuriating as that is. It really is a case of let Alan do his job and report when he has something confirmed he can tell us. Again I dont want to be negative, after all we want a solution too. But I do see Alan between a rock and a hard place.

Callas, I do agree with you that some of the notifications are astonishing. But a lot of this is legacy stuff. Imagine you are in Alans shoes. Every time you dip you hand in the box you pull out another skelleton and it just goes from bad to worse. Yes I agree that all this should have been unveiled through the normal reporting structures of any company. But we know the corporate governance in Afren was bad from a long time ago. After all, the previous execs were able to manipulate the system. The reporting structures were simply not in place. And then all this is happening out in Nigeria, not in head office. No it doesnt surprise me. Its Alans job to sort all that out, but it takes time and at the moment he has his hands full keeping the company afloat. Alan has walked into a complete shambles, not a package perfect company where everything is running smoothly. Im not defendinig him but I really dont think anyone had any idea what a job he has on his hand on. We should let him get on with it in my opinion.

I am amazed by what I read on here, but I do understand the emotion. Alan Linn is restricted in what he can do by contracts and defaults that were already in existance before he joined. He is further restricted by the bondholders who have complete control of the purse strings, and therefore the corporate solvency. Until those links are broken, or they have been overcome, Alan Linn has his hands tied. Those of you who think he should resign please elaborate who will take his place or do you seriously think the company can run without a CEO. Anyone appointed to his position would have to act in the same way and then you would all be calling for HIS resignation. Please tell us what you would do in his place. As far as the new companies are concerned. They are all 100% subsidiaries of Afren Plc so of course Alan is on the boards. The companies have been set up to allow the assets and debts to be manipulated under plan B by the BHs. Alan would have had no option to agree to that. PURSE STRING power again. The companies have nothing to do with Alan building a powerbase. Its also amazing how many experts we have on here that know all about running an exploration company and the problems of getting the oil out of the ground. Even the financial wizards on here, who I respect, do not have current financial information so the have to make huge suppositions. Whatever you think of Alan, he has internal and external financial experts, he has expert oil men on board, he has technical oil men coming out of his ears in Nigeria, and he has big name partners he can call on for expertise. Do you all really think you can run the show better than all of those. If you do then again, please tell us sll what you would do. I dont wish to be harsh, but unless you can justify your ideas, why dont we just let them get on with the job they are there to do. The issue has never been with the production side of the company, althought admitedly there are some problems now. But its up to Alan to sort that. At the moment he is being wildly distracted by people waving sticks in his face. Our issue has always been about getting a better deal, and not telling all and sundry how they should be running the company. We still fight for a better deal.

Goog morning all. We still have no news from the company and that means for the time being nothing changes for us. Its the same today as it was yesterday and the day before etc.. etc. So best we all stay relaxed and keep away from fighting eachother. We all have views, but we may have different views. We all want the same result. Lets support eachother rather than fight. Have a good day.

This is why ASOG members oppose the YES vote, which may never happen no. Positive issues of a YES vote. Value at only 10% ownership of the company. Open offer at 1p per share. Company refinanced - continues trading. 10% future growth attributable to shareholders. New management team. Probable survival of the company. Negative issues of a YES vote. 90% value of the company taken by BHs. Shardholders have to pay for part of their own refinancing via an Open Offer. Does the refinancing offer enough liquidity to trade forward? 90% control of the company will be in the hands of the BHs. Existing shareholders will never again have any say by vote. Existing SHs have no trust that BHs will do what they say they will do. Can Alan Linn run a company with total SH contol in hands of BHs? Will BHs simply sell off assets to pay down their debt? Will BHs milk the company of cash to pay down debt. There is a twice yearly cash sweep to remove 50% of all cash generated. Costly advisors permanently in place. Will BHs take the company private and remove all value. Can the BHs carry out their new business plan (one of the risks identified in the prospectus) If Afren MCap value ever rises to £1 billion SP to existing shareholders will be only 9p. Debating this may already be academic but it illustrates why we oppose the BHs offer

Tose of you not registered with ASOG.  At the moment our members count for about 10% of all votes. The power of the NO vote has become more obvious over the last few weeks. The more we can build, the more powerful we are. So those of you that watch but dont post, thats absolutely fine but please register your shares with us.  Register by emailing us at asogafrenregistration at outlook.com and simply enter your share holding in the SUBJECT field and send. No message needed. You will receive a short questionnaire and some other information, (like our opinion and general voting instructions) by return to complete your registration. After that you will receive update emails from time to time. You need all this to be ready for the next vote if and when it comes. You can also get all this information from www.twitter.com/asogafren, and you can also see our YouTube video presentations. Join us guys. Its important. Thanks, Tony

Hi Guys. There certainly seems to be some heat in the board tonight. Now would be a good time to sit back and reflect. There has been no communication from the board since 15th July, idfentifying short term production problems and a continued discussion with BHs about the $30 million borrowed under the Bridge facility. (We dont know the current cash position). But we are still here. We are not being told we are insolvent. Previous RNSs have clearly warned of the real possibility of insolvency. Recent RNSs have not mentioned that so we must assume that is not the case until we are told so. For the last 4 months ASOG members have declared the position that they would oppose the BHs offer, and that is the message we have conveyed as we represent their views. Well Guess what guys, we have beaten back the the YES vote for the time being. We are now where we always wanted to be. What we have fought for. That is a victory. We may even be even in a better place, no Plan A or Plan B. And you have to ask the question ... Are the BHd on the run? We always clearly knew there was a risk of zero value by opposing the offer. We have done that and are now in the limbo position we expected to be in. This is no surprise. No turn for the worse. However we are now in that difficult place of uncertainty we were always going to get to if we defeated the YES vote.. No one knows what will happen next but although there appear to be several possible scenarios we dont know what the next step will be.. We should not be surprise to be in the place we are. If we were ever going to beat the YES vote, we were always going to end up where we are now. We now need to look beyond the window we find ourself in, to the next stage. Its all part of the route forward. We have to go through the dark woods to get back out in the open. When we get through we will know if we have won of lost. But the game is still in play. Its time to put on our hard hats guys. Zero value is still a very real risk. But in my view, the better value option is still out there too. Good luck to all of us. Tony.

I guys... I see lots of speculation about what might be and what might happen. Admin, Seplat, The General etc. Remember one thing, nobody knows anything. We need to avioid whipping ourselves into a frenzy that something good is round the corner. Im not being negative, just sensible. There may well be a solution being planned. But lets not count our chickens. We always said the NO vote (or no vote!) opens the door to opportunity. We are now at the threshold of that door. Lets see what happens.. Lets see if there are any opportunities rising. Afren is still too valuable a business to break up and throw to the vultures, with its huge assets and woking infrastructure. My cup is still half full not half empty. Keep up the pressure. Tony

Keep your eye on the RNSs. There may be another one issued during the day, or at any time.

The RNS today was un necessary. It just repeats the previous RNS. So what is that all about. Will there be a follow up RNS.? Does it imply indefinite suspension of shares? Has another offer materialised? Are we about to go into admin.? We are still in the dark. One thing it didnt say is "insolvency". Im not grabbing at straws, just trying to understand the message. If the company was insolvent there would be no reason for that information to be held back. As soon as the BOD discover the company is insolvent, they have to stop trading or they will be guilty of wrongful trading. Everything out in the field would have to be halted and that information would leak out almost instantly so we would see it in the press if not from an RNS. So, EGM cancelled (implied), no notice of insolvency (might come soon), BHs still need to protect their loss, are there any investors out there circling? (We know there are production problems). Call me simple but how about this. Origanally no offers were considered that didnt meet the level of the debt. I never understood why but that was what we were told. The boot is on the other foot now. BHs under pressure. A viable plan has been put forward to reschedule the existing bonds maturity repaynents as under plan A. That can still be used. So leave the bonds in place for now. An investor only needs to come in to take over the existing interim fundings plus extra... $500m should do it. And theres been a few out there with $500m in their pot. We would be up and running again. Later deal with debt levels by rights issues. BHs would get no shares but would get debt repayment according to repayment schedules. New investor would want equity, but not 90% (we get to vote again). I suppose thats over simplistic. Its not indended to be a financial proposal, but a kernel of an idea. Just musing around the subject.. any other thoughts anyone?

Yes isengard, we can agree to disagree. I like that you support Alan Linn. I too support Alan but I believe he is operating in a totally restrictive environment where the legacy he inherited determines what he can and cannot do. The ony way Alan can drive this company up again is if we can separate him from the BHs and stop BHs getting control. The no vote does that. The yes vote turns him into a puppet CEO with BHs in control. The BHs have shown little for us to have trust or faith in so far. I have a question for you. You want the yes vote, plan A. You have been convinced by Alan's microsite presentation. He talks a good story and I believe he has conviction an his words. But do you think that with the BHs holding 90% control they will allow Alan any autonomy at all.. Dont you think if he doesnt do their bidding they will simply remove him. Do you think Alan would stand working under those pressures, or will he resign. Under Plan A with 90% control, the BHs can do all the things they clain they can in plan B, but 1) they will have no resistance. 2) You will never ever have a vote again. Dont you think the BHs will quietly remove your last few percent? They will simply take the business ans leave you a worthless shell, because you wont have the voting power to resist. The yes vote does not support Alan Linn. It it supports the BHs who have every reason (profit) take the remaining value, and they will have all the power to do so. Alan speaks fine words, but your vote effectively removes his control of the company and puts it in the hands of the BHs. (90% shares). Trust Alan, by all means, I do, but do you trust the bondholders that you are voting in and who will become the bosses?. Think about it Isengard. Who are you supporting. Alan with no control, or BHs with total control.

Basically there are some simple questions to be asked. Q Can the BHs survive admin or liquidation? A Universal consensus on both sides is NO or they lose massively. Q Can the BHs prevent admin? A Absolutely YES. They have $1.2 billion at stake. It only needs a tiny injection to solve the problem. Q Can the BHs resolve the problem and get a YES vote? A Absolutely YES. Simply offer an acceptable fair deal and Job done. That deal is financially viable except the BHs dont make such a large profit but they still make plenty, against what they may lose. Q Will the shareholders drive towards liquidation? A Absolutely YES. If the BHs can be more flexible there is a deal to be done. They seem to think they can carry on trying to fool us unto giving up. Not a chance. We are here for the long haul.

That wasnt a "buy" after hours. That was the uncrossing trade result of the end of day final auction and is simply the volume of matchng off bargains to close the days business. Its the way the final closing price is established. It is not a bargain that will affect the share price next day

ok back up to bid 58.02. Thats what the market thinks of Liberum.

Of course they may be right!!

What on earth are liberum capital saying about Asos. With almost every other house giving a BUY rating between 5000 and 6000 for the last 2 months, what possible justification can they have for dropping their target price by nearly 50% and consequently wiping millions off the value of the company and shareholde investments. Asos has been trading for a long time with its exceptional and unusual financial ratios with no negative issues. Is there an argument that by crashing a share price the perpetrators will be able to pick up those shares at a reduced price later. Of course I am not suggestion that Liberum capital would do such a thing. But when a valuation of a company flies in the face of all others who have access to thje same financial information by such a substantial margin, the valuation itself contains the inherent question. Anyone have any views on this??