Member Info for ynotdeal

Hi H&H, Interesting idea to go back and vote for plan A. My own view is that the company would have gone into admin under plan A, plan B or no plan. It ran out of money. No money.... no business. Simple as that. It is widely reported now that the production problems and pricing issues have create a need for funding of a further $250m. Also under plan A there was still a shortage of working capital to the tune of about $200m, as calculated by a number of astute money men. You need to ask yourself, would the BHs have stumped up another $450m to keep the company going under plan A. Thats about one third again of the bond debt! Somehow I think not. More likely they would have taken the company with their 90% control, pre-packed it off somewhere, shed some of the debt into the Plc, dumped the old shareholders and let new Afren rise from the ashes. If its a sell off, only chance is if the assets raise more thsn the total debt. Unlikely in my opinion.

Hi Pete. You ok? Not much activity on here now. SHs seem resigned to the fact its really just wait and see, but nothing good out there. I have been trawling the net but no news or information is leaking out from wnywhere. There is complete radio silence which is wfhat one would expext. As soon as I come across anything I will post on here, otherwise not much to say at the moment. Im wondering what is happening in the ALAG camp. You heard anything? Ive seen a couple of posts on here from people with Afren CFDs, up to £40k invested What kind of a horrendous risk is that!!

Ngaski. We dont know the current status of cash balances in the company. We dont know the saleable value of the company assets. That depends on many factors. Basically how much a buyer would pay and will Nigerian change of control cut in. It is unlikely that the saleable value of the assets and cash exceeds the debt. The order of repayment of creditors after administration/liquidation is controlled by insolvency law and very briefly starts with secured creditors first, then unsecured. Other liabilities have to be settled, employees etc. Last of all come the shareholders. So yes, depending which asset you are talking about its BHs and banks thag get first call on the money.

Hi GG. Its nice to see you on here with a more tempered tone.

With all the talk of how we can get out of this, who can to what, how much money is needed. Keep your focus on the fact we are in Administration. It can be turned round, that is always a possibility, but the value will end up with the rescuers. There is just a remote chance we may get some residual value from sale of assets but thars a big ask. We have no information to base anything on except that admin usually means zero for shareholders. The fact to be faced is the company simply ran out of money sand no one would put any more in.

Hi Ldlv. The question PeteB was answering the question.. where has all the cash gone. Your post revisits the wrongdoings of this year. Valid points but different subject. You are both right.

Im not sure how things work from here but we have had no news since the admin notice. We have no new information to base any argument as to whether or not there is any possibility of a revovery, what options there are and what will happen next. Postings on here about how it can all be turned around are pure speculation. Im not saying that cant happen, I hope it does, but we have no information or evidence as to how it might happen. I do not believe that the company, in administration, can issue news, RNSs, and I do not think the Administrator is under any obligation to issue updates, I may be wrong. So my thoughts now are we are entering a period where information will be even more sparce than it ever has been. So until we hear something, its no change to admin day. If we get good news we can start reviewing the possible outcomes, but not now. Im not being negative. We have all been through a lot here and I think we should be cautious in our prognostications. Best thing is to put your shares on the back shelf and wait to see what happens over time. Administration usually means no value for shareholders. Lets assume that will be the case here until we hear otherwise. In the end we may get a pleasant surprise. Let Legal Action Team do their job now.

The administrators do not say company is insolvent, just their obligations in the case of insolvency.90 (we probably are tho!!!) If Littlebillys post is the full message it does not say "The Administrators do not anticipate that there will be any funds available for distribution to the shareholders in this case." (Although there probably wont be.)

So, anyone got any tips for any risky bulti-bagger shares? I feel like building a portfolio of them and sailing close to the edge lol. (Joke)

Guys, remember all the time you are looking at future possibilities of Afren recovering, the odds are probably 99 to 1 against that ever happening. God we all hope against hope that it will happen, but we need to be realistic. Dont build yourselves false hope. It only leads to more pain. But I love your positive attitudes.

Hi nimms. Share group... nice thought, but for me too many legal and regulatory ramifications for me.

OMG GG. Are you not well? That was almost supportive! Have I landed on another planet? Take care. Good night T

Ngaski, Im not sure I understand your question. Companies go into administration generally when they cannot pay debts as they fall due. They have run out of liquid funds. Amongst other things, an administrator has to look for the best way for the creditors to be paid off. This will usually be by selling off assets. Only after all debts are paid off will shareholders get any return. That almost never happens. The wise assumption would be to assume there is no value left for shareholders. Un-palatable but thats what we face im afraid.

Hi ldlv. As I said to you once before, all communications between us and our members has always been confidential. They would not appreciate us giving out their personal information if they did not feel inclined to become embroiled in a legal action group. However I would be very happy to distribute your action groups contact details again when I next email our members. Many of our members do not come onto this board. That way all of our members that want to will make direct contact with you and we will not have breached a the confidence of those who dont contact you. We wouldnt want our members getting unsolicited communications they do not want. Good luck with your progress.

Good evening guys. I have been reviewing the posts on here tonight. Many people are asking questions that simply cannot be answered, like how did we go from $30m to $ 250m? How did we get where we are in such a short time. Why didnt the company do this, that or the other. No one outside the company can answer that. No one has access to the books of account. People are also promoting the the idea that there may be some recovery. They may or may not be right. I do not know, but safest to assume that there is no recovery. Nimms, technically shareholders are creditors of the company. According to the law we are last in line. So all debt and fees have to be paid off before the shareholders get a penny. As PeteB said, the (ASOG) brief was to oppose the BHs offer and if it was not acceptable then to reject it by vote at the AGM. There is no longer any offer. Under administration shareholders get no vote about anything. The administrator has total autonymous power to do what he wants (within the law). We cannot exert any pressure on his decision making. There is nothing further we can do. We have represented shareholders views as best we could and there is now no need for us to do that any longer. At the present time we are still a committee. ASOG is still here. However, very shortly we will discus our position dnd it is likely that we disband. We will not reappear with a different name and different brief. We will not be taking up a different banner. In our view, shareholders now have the option to join the Afren Legal Action group with a view to making recovery through legal action. All members have already been given contact details for the group. However, if we decide to disband our committee, we will email all our members to advise them of that and we will include contact details of ALAG again. Speaking for myself personally, if we disband, it is likely that you will see me here online from time to time and I will be very happy to answer any questions as best I can in a private capacity. However, I will say now that I will no longer be prepared to engage with, or even read posts that contain abuse or insults. That behaviour is really not necessary. As each of those comes up I will filter them and that will be permanent as far as I am concerned. Whilst a member of ASOG, I have never filtered any poster. Ignored maybe, but filtered ... no. For those of you that still plan to play the shares game, I wish you much better fortune. Tony.

PART 2 Administration prevents any creditor taking action against the company for recovery, or petitioning for bankrupcy. I am not clear on this but I believe that all debt repayment and interest payments are frozen until the administrator decides otherwise, and this preserves cash in the business. (Correct me if I am wrong there). The administration process provides a window for the administrator to find a solution, sell the company or dispose of assets. Those of us that opposed the BHs offer, were doing so in the knowledge that if the NO vote was won, there may still have been zero value for shareholders. However, in the end the choice was not ours. Shareholders will not now get the opportunity to to vote in favour of or reject any BHs refinancing offer and will have no further say in the running of the company, unless the company successfully comes out of administration. I hasten to add that very few have done that. The company also states that no other Afren subsidiary is in administration or under insolvency proceedings. Therefore it seems the trading operations can continue. Afren Plc own the shares in all the subsidiaries, but it is understood the BHs have pledges over those shares effectively giving them control over those companies. It is unclear what the impact on that situation will be with Administrators now in control of Afren plc, as Afren owns those shares and the shares are company assets. Will the share pledges override the administrators control over Afren assets, or vice versa? We dont know. It is also unclear what impact the Nigerian change of control legislation will have if the BHs try to sell or transfer the assets held in the subsidiaries away from the Afren group, using their share pledge control. That had always been an issue and still is. If that legislation removes value from the assets, then BHs will be at risk of losing much of their debt recovery. Much is still unclear and we require more clarification. As we stand at the moment it may be unwise for shareholders to expect there to be any value left in their shares. In our view the only way there would be residual value is if the sale of assets exceeds the total value of the debt. We do not have any information if that is likely or not. However there are still issues to be resolved. The fact is we are in administration and we need to wait and see where that takes us. Peronally I regret we never achieved a better deal for shareholders. We tried and we lost. There is no shame in that. But we will never know, now, what the BHs final hand would have been if there was no administration. The views I have expressed here are my own, and if there are any material errors in what I said im sure someone will correct me. Tony

Hi guys. Im back from my trip to Wales. These are my own personal first thoughts.  I may review some of what  I say later when we have more information. This post is likely to be a long one so I may break it into 2 parts. PART 1 I see much heartfelt emotion and anger online over the past few days. We also feel the same that the company has been put into administration after such a protracted period of deterioration. It seems that there were factors at play, other than the recapitalisation offer, that have forced the comany to this point.  At first view it seems that means there is now no value for shareholders. I do not propose to dispute that view, or offer any morsels of hope. I would not want you to think there is a way out of this, although in fact that is possible,  Once the company is in administration we, or anyone, can have little influence over the administrator. However there are a number of incongruities about which I am not clear and require more information. The company stated that "Material near term reducion in production and delays in some project implementation,  has undermined the immediate liquidity position of the company. Following discussions with stakeholders, the company has failed to find any support to deliver a refinancing plan that will enable the company to pay its debts as they fall due". In essence the company forsees it will shortly run out of money as a result of the production problems, and cannot find further finance. The RNS does not say the company is insolvent at this stage,  but it seems the BOD believe that is now likely. Please note that the price of oil is now below $50 per barrel and that is bad for us. The BHs have decided not to put up, the extra funds needed. Therefore the company has taken steps to enter administration. This means an administrator is appointed and he has control over the trading, assets and debts of the company. He is obligated to do the following. Firstly to see if the company is still a going concern. To see if the whole of the company can be sold to a buyer to protect the interests of employees, suppliers and creditors. Failing that to start liquidating assets with a view to paying off debt, secured creditors first. Finally if there is anything remaining after debt repayment that will be distributed to shareholders. GO TO PART 2

Hi guys. This was the worst time for me to be away. I apologise. im at a wedding in the mountains of Wales. Only have my phone, no comms signals up here. Got a weak link now. Im back on tuesday. Think this will be my only post tonight. T

Pp-7. we are in the process of trying to set up a meeting with Alan Linn, and im sure we will be successful. Although there is information lockdown, we do still get responses and acknowledgements from the company when we contact them, but we do not get any new information. Will tet you know when we have any news. T

Hi andy. no I cant respond now. But you know I will want to and of course you know I will challenge every one of your points. But later when im back, your back, we can have a little tumble. Have a good break regards tony.