Member Info for Yesimabeliever

@yespsb, what I meant re “hand behind back” is that THG is locked out of M&A at the moment with its poor valuation. That is not a sustainable situation medium term if MM wants to continue to grow Beauty and Nutrition divisions IMO, as FMCG portfolios always need refreshing to respond to trends/innovation elsewhere etc

@novice, big deals take time to negotiate if you want maximum value, and really don't think the last couple of years has been the right macro environment to secure top £ for assets. As per craftys note on the AGM, its about "timing".

Who knows @cityspier, but what we do know is that THG is operating with one hand tied behind its back at the moment with the lowly valuation and M&A off the menu. Must be intensely frustrating for someone like MM who is always looking to drive onwards. Re Mike Ashley and nutrition, JMO, but I would have thought global FMCG looking to get into healthier categories would be able to ascribe a higher valuation than Frasers. But perhaps MM could repeat the trick when disposing of a stake (or whole) of Nutrition to FMCG and tie in some significant Ingenuity contracts for other products. So many options, and IMO Nutrition and Beauty are very valuable assets, and Ingenuity has the potential to be with a few more material 3rd party contracts.

Agreed @cityspier. I remain convinced Allen/MM are exploring all angles to release SOTP valuation, just not providing a running commentary on it for reasons of confidentiality or to box themselves into a corner. Doesn't mean conversations aren't happening in the background IMO

@crafty - was there any comment on new LSE rules, wording in the trading statement is pretty vague, but I am guessing they are not going to commit to something until the new rules are published.

@cityspier, think your comments are a fair enough summary of where we are at.

I remain as convinced as ever on the long term opportunity that THG’s current lse valuation represents to investors.

Value will out in the end, but timing on that is opaque, but we are aligned with MM and his long term backers.

GLALTH’s

Usual FUD on here, hopefully investors see it for what it is, which is just manipulative posting, probably after a cheaper entry point.

Debt is in fact not an issue - THG refinanced a couple of months ago, cash flow is positive in 2024, so debt trajectory/serviceability is favourable, and interest rates are coming down. Red herring.

Yesterday was a great day IMO for LTH’s. CA/MA fully backed by long term II’s. The “bag of spanners” narrative is just that, a narrative from traders. The big investors, the ones with £100ms at stake, continue to back the plan.

Frasers partnership full of promise, in exchange for a non core business in Coggles. Win/Win.

Looking forward to more positive news, and of course, a move away from the standard listing which should change the nature of the game here once and for all.

I agree Magnum, I voted for stability and Charles Allen to see the job through that he has started. Nobody on that Board is happy with where the share price is, and I am sure they have a plan to address it. Let’s let them get on with it rather than second guess/criticise every move they make off limited information (that happens a lot on this board). The big II’s have shown their support for CA/MM, and some of them have £100’s millions at stake. Unlike Kelso.

Agreed Cong, good deal for Ashley and THG on credit. There is good money to be made on D2C credit to boost margins, indeed credit is where online retailers Very and Nbrown make all their profit.

Good RNS. Sports Direct/Ingenuity Australia tie up offers a good blueprint for THG is an international D2C partner for Brands/Retailers. The big prize for me is when THG starts landing deals to be the European/International partner for US brands looking to expand into Europe & Asia.

Really great find that 1pencil the OVMH piece, thx..one day Rodney.

Cheers for the posts/intell msn. Much appreciated

Not sure why people are raising THG gearing as an issue again. THG refinanced the debt recently, gearing/EBITDA improving as trading picks up, and not excessive or tight on covenants. And cost servicing that debt will likely drop over the next 12 months.. Non issue for me. As per Crafty’s message lots of positives for me with THG this year, the only stick I see operationally to hit the Board with is lack of Ingenuity wins. Hopefully Crane/Ward can deliver that. As for something strategic MM/CA need to deliver that this side of Xmas IMO

THG still suffering from “don’t touch it with a barge pole” in the City. Will active managers start looking at it again when THG is included in the indexes against which they are benchmarked, I suspect they will, especially as the macro improves. Hard to ignore a share in the index if starts outperforming and it isn’t in your portfolio.

@cityspier New single LSE category should be the catalyst for some fund buying from early July. Assuming FCA follow through as expected (they are meeting 27th June to finalise/approve the changes)

I'm more upbeat than you skfrn, expecting a decent return here, and happy to wait to maximise value. I don't approve of all MM's linkedin posts, but other than that happy enough to give him and the Board another year to see what they can achieve with improving macro. If no big Ingenuity wins or capital events, don't see him making it to the next AGM, as he'll lose the 16% along the way IMO. Expect him and the Chair will get through this AGM fine, but I may be wrong

Apollo bid was real as confirmed by them, the prior bid, as we all know was just engineered by MM and MacDonald to try and prop up the share price that was at the time dropping like a stone.

As for why not disclose the Apollo price, maybe Apollo requested it, alternatively the Board thought it in the interest of the majority of shareholders (who rejected the Bid and no doubt the Chair confirmed this). Who knows, but it isn’t that uncommon for Boards not to disclose.

12 months on, would the majority of shareholders still reject that bid? The AGM vote might reveal what % of the 65% , if any are wavering.

At the end of the day, THG comes in play for a buyout if MM loses support of 16% assuming the majority of PI’s would hit a bid. The Chair will be in in constant dialogue with the II backers and monitoring this closely.

Skfrn, I understand your frustration, but how can MM accept an Apollo bid, rejected by the majority of shareholders, because Apollo wanted priority rights over Health and Beauty?

I fully agree Yorek. It’s going to be an interesting few weeks. Going to be very interesting to see how the 65% vote, is support rock solid still? If it is, I will add more.

@ pearls whilst it’s been a grim ride for LTH of s4 through a once in a generation inflationary shock, doesn’t mean that it doesn’t now present a huge opportunity for investors. S4 has the right people and service suite to be a huge success IMO, not to mention global reach. Good luck to those with the conviction to accumulate and hold, IMO Mr Market has this badly wrong