Member Info for Yesimabeliever

Good old Matt flexing for social media, you would have thought he would have learned from prior misdemeanours.

Also Matt, stop skipping leg day

As per your own anology Steve, they usually do get gobbled up eventually

Agree with you sentiment @cheshire, surely after 4 years of miss after miss the big holders have told Matt it’s time for a fresh face in plc to rebuild trust with investors.

I have some sympathy that whey/fx has gone against him this year, but his communication to the city is still awful, spin/bluster/opaque. If he hasn’t learnt by now he never will.

Iain Mc ruled out cash burning businesses, so that rules

out Ingenuity IMO. Their model only works for profitable, cash generative, businesses as they will put debt in as part of their deal structure.

Short of a bid, THG now just feels like a punt on whey prices in the short term.

Do we know what if any hedging THG do?

Understand MM’s view it whey will come off at the back of end of the year with new capacity coming online, but forward curve doesn’t agree

He’s set himself up for another “miss” there with the price of whey completely out of his control.

Whilst a competitive bidder would be great @oohahh, I’ve started to question how attractive Nutriton/Beauty are to 3rd party bidders due to the long term tie in with Ingenuity.

Of course we have zero visibility on the contracts in place, but I’m not sure how much appetite there will be to acquire Beauty/Nutrition assets where revenue is still so controlled via MM via Ingenuity.

Cheers. @oke, followed MM comments on impact of whey prices to bottom line.

Struggling to get a handle on the health of the Nutrition business model full stop given top line showing 20% decline in real terms vs back end of 2022.

No sign of bounce back post rebrand (which he had

told us was over in Q3)

Unless I am missing something, it just looks like they are losing market share to others?

@oke,

I know you think THG will sell a stake in Nutrition, but at what valuation?

Trading update means revenue has declined 16% vs Q4 2022, in real terms 25% plus.

And with record whey prices, couldn’t think of a worse time to be selling to try and maximise value to THG shareholders.

Kbyk, I agree there is more value in these assets, and I won’t be selling.

But MM has to go pure and simple.

He is a big part of the problem here. Either can’t forecast, or can’t give an honest forecast. He’s unbackable.

Pearls, Beauty’s results were OK, nothing better.

Nutrition results, Car Crash. -10% in spite of MM assuring us that the rebrand was behind us in Q3 and Nutriton was back in growth. Just next to no growth, and leaving top line nearly -20%+ in real terms vs 2023. Little wonder we are where we are with the SP. MM has to go, never hits a forecast, over promise after over promise. And the numbers presented to the market are too opaque. Fresh leadership required I’m afraid

But the CEO does.

Were told in Q3 that the Nutrition rebrand was behind us, then Q4 nutrition numbers -10%.

Beauty margin progression good 2024, but net of inflation no growth in a market where online sales are significantly up.

MM moans about the market cap and wants better multiples, but look at the numbers Matt, we are a low/negative growth business in real terms with significant leverage, and priced accordingly.

Moulding out. Not fit to be a plc CEO, and it’s time for the major shareholders to force the issue.

Q2/Q3 nutrition results were awful, and SP has has been punished accordingly. I’m hopeful even MM can only improve on -13%, and maybe if nutrition shows positive signs post rebrand and forward guidance confirms FCF generation we might just start looking too cheap to ignore. Need a plan to sort the debt though

Agreed Samb69, plus Balderton & QIA didn’t participate even though they could have grabbed more remainco.

Debt is sub optimal but serviceable, more likely to sell stakes and seperate.

Whey price futures are elevated 12 months out, MM inferred they will absorb in Q3 trading statement, so doubt Nutrition will be 10%+ in 2025.

Given whey prices can’t be controlled, I’m most interested in Nutriton top line numbers and growth outlook, can rebrand and offline push us back into sustainable/profitable growth? At the moment the market can’t look past Nutriton going backwards for 3 years, and -13% Q3. Prove the new offline business model can kickstart growth again, and SP will respond IMO

I don’t understand how the Chairman tolerates MM behaviours on his watch - the LinkedIn propaganda, the city taunts, enough said about the videos.

Totally unacceptable given they can’t even notify investors properly for results/analyst calls.

And yet Chair has elected into Ingenuity also? 🤷‍♂️

Magnum, FWIW I have all the same questions as to why the demerger was structured as it was as the best way forward for ALL shareholders, why didn’t they get external money into Ingenuity etc etc.

The lack of transparency is incredibly frustrating and breeds mistrust. Where I have landed with is all is that I assume the NED board have done their job and carefully evaluated all the options and canvassed the major shareholders prior to approving. Otherwise they would be seriously exposed.

PI’s feel like they have been shafted, but let’s not forget QIA/Balderton/Sofina have allowed Ingenuity to go on these terms (and it looks like they all went in Remainco). If they thought this was the wrong move they could have blocked it. Kelso are in the same position as PI’s (minority and along for the ride), albeit have privileged insight and access through their relationship with insiders (Munro/Leahy/McDonald). Kelso appear to have gone along with it as well. Why?

Can only assume QIA/Balderton/Sofina/Kelso believe value will be captured in THG free of Ingenuity. It’s early days. GLA

Interersting MSN.

Anybody have any further insight?

Same Yorek. It was a “solution” to the issue that Ingenuity was a major drag to THG plc value. If you think Ingenuity plc value of £25m was too low you had the right to take up more if you wanted to. Lack of liquidity/No ISA as a private co is not really the concern of a plc Board. Am I skipping for jog about the demerger NO, is it what I was hoping for NO, but it has had lawyers/advisors crawling all over it, and it was fair.

I don’t feel like the Ingenuity demerger was a “win” for shareholders, but I don’t buy into the “it was stolen” narrative.

I took up Ingenuity shares as a private co (reluctantly) because I thought the valuation at demerger was too low given the capex in to let it go. So it wasn’t stolen from me.

Ingenuity has been nothing short of a disaster for THG on the LSE so it had to go.

Why the major shareholders thought it was better to go down this route and vote it through vs take Apollo 18 months ago, well 🤷‍♂️. These are the risks we take

It wasn’t stolen.

Everyone had the opportunity to participate (or indeeed increase their holding) if they wanted to.

The demerger was also voted through by shareholders.

What is damning however is after years of huge capex, dwindling support for the endeavour, and no obvious II support. You would have thought in any other business that would be a p45 for the CEO