Member Info for Yesimabeliever

Going to need more than 4 stores to move the dial on £1.2 billion business! Too slow!

FCF etc looks good.

Growth is the elephant in the room though. THG showing no signs of being able to deliver 7.5% growth in either division since M&A dried up and pivot towards margin (ie profitbale growth).

Can’t see Myprotein achieving it without a serious offline international FMCG partner/JV/investor?

Beauty? Needs to move towards Sephora model with bricks and mortar to compliment core D2C IMO.

A lot for THG to do to get to 7.5% and some better multiples. Still, to cheap at current levels

Current valuation makes sense given s4 now look in control of their balance sheet.

@poker is right, working capital benefit will reverse as S4 return to growth and invest in WIP. That said. I don’t see debt as a problem here.

Growth and margins key, first sign of a return to growth and improving margins, buyers will come in because multiples are SO low.

Been quiet on client wins since GM…lets have a new client win or 2 before results in March please SMS

Not sure on your read on MA intentions here Oke.

Maybe he just sees easy money buying Nutrition/Beauty in the 40-49 range that he has?

Maybe he is toying with Gould/McDonald after blocking him at Boohoo?

It’s dangerous for Moulding having Ashley on the register medium term as he is no one’s lap dog, just not convinced he is hostile to Moulding YET

“Letting the fox into the chicken cage”. Agreed.

And what about Moulding. Get a deal done for Nutriton and amicably step aside for a plc friendly ceo? Big holders must know there is no way back for him with the city and they never see full value with him in the chair?

Ok cheers Steve, that makes sense.

FMCG partner in US is the right move if they can pull if off.

Lightweight as Mistry is, none of rebrand will have been his call, nor can he do anything about Fx/whey pricing, or the pivot towards winding back non profitable business. So really not sure any of nutritions problems are anything to do with him really. Underperformance is all on Moulding.

What do you make of Ashley whilst you at it? Just investing ahead of capital event or other motive?

Ok cheers Ste.

Agree Mistry not credible, that much is obvious, just wasn’t sure how Gorman could work across both in a JV. Suppose JV partner could put their own person in and Gorman oversee?

Renee mm we the challenge to MM on the Q3 call, he took full responsibility, should be him carrying the can not the tea boy IMO.

Morning Steve do you mind explaining this comment:

Sorry Steve , know you want to tell us all that the price is going down, but do you mind explaining this comment, as I don’t follow your logic:

“However these changes are the biggest evidence that nutrition is about to split into JV structure“

I understand a few reasons why they might want Lucy Gorman overseeing nutriton:

- she has done a good job improving Beauty performance

- she got Nutriton performance flying after the last rebrand

- promotion to oversee the whole p&l, with longer term succession planning

I just don’t understand why it makes a JV more likely? Do you mind explaining your logic. Would really appreciate it

Morning Steve do you mind explaining this comment:

“However these changes are the biggest evidence that nutrition is about to split into JV structure“

I don’t really follow the logic?

Could be for a number of reasons, or indeed a combination of reasons. We live in hope it is positive reasons, but this is THG so knowing our luck poor trading!

Why is this evidence of a JV Steve?

The titles are silly, but they gave themselves nowhere to go by having divisional CEO’s in the first place. Glad to see Goreman overseeing Nutriton again, did a good job first time around, and at beauty. Deserves a shot running the whole thing. Matt can just focus on IR, see if he can improve!

Personally always impressed when SMS speaks, very articulate and presents a well thought through view of the evolving market place. Plays the chair role very well IMO, very visible in the market promoting s4/monks and commentary/thought leadership around AI adoption.

What’s the market not seeing? Yes s4 is very cheap, but no compelling need to buy now. Big moves will come with a return to growth and dividend/buy backs firmly on the table.

Agree Kbyk.

Don’t think anyone listens to THG forecasts these days. Matt forecast FCF neutral for 2024. Missed it by a mile.

Beauty is a predictable enough business, unfortunately Matt has limited control over Nutriton p&l and is behold Rona combination of whey & fx pricing it seems.

Thanks for the flag. Another significant hire, 3rd or 4th in the last month. Started investing again for growth, positive signs

Personally appreciate Oke’s input here, has presented a consistent and coherent view as to what’s going on here. Time will tell if it is correct.

@rizzel

No major holder went into Ingenuity.

They aren’t going to let MM rinse them via Ingenuity as they need to get there cash back via Nutrition/Beauty.

We all know long term MM can’t be CEO of THG plc and major shareholder of Ingenuity, that is horrible governance. Assume there is a plan to address this.

Hoping they split beauty and Nutriton and MM becomes NED

Kbyk, don’t think we know Ashley went into Ingenuity. Yes he put £10m into the raise, but may have nominated all

Remainco. His increasing stake in plc suggests to me he may not have gone into Ingenuity 🤷‍♂️ .

Personally I think he is friend rather than foe at the moment, given the “partnerhips” announcements over the summer.

We’re all guessing, in the meantime it’s eerily quiet from Moulding/Ashley/Selkirk/Kelso, and not a peep out of major holders none of whom seem to have gone into Ingenuity.

Can’t see it staying quiet for too long,

Confident things will look very different here at the back end of the year with rate cuts and possible buy back/dividend. SMS last video was encouraging, cautious official outlook because he knows they can’t afford another miss, but you could tell he thinks they will outperform. A return to growth plus dividend/buyback £1 feels doable