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Think this will take off after h1 results, where then lost transformation client will be out of the comparables, and GM will be in full swing as a top 10’ client. Presentation was bullish about AI and client pipeline. Hopefully back in growth H2 🚀

@1pencil

I think you cut Moulding too much slack.

Whey price inflation has crushed Nutriton and THG profitability and cash generation (for the second time in 2 years).

Due to an inability (or reluctance) to pass through costs, Nutriton is effectively selling and distributing a commodity at a fixed price, whilst buying a “floating” price. That will inherently create volatile earnings unless you hedge whey inputs (hard due to lack of liquidity), or vertically integrate (Glanbia).

THG took that risk on which is OK, but not when you strap on a cash hungry tech “infrastructure” investment and corporate leverage.

Yes markets are tricky, but there was a fundamental flaw in THG in combing nutrition, ingenuity and high leverage. That’s on the Board, not markets.

I suspect Q1 trading is weak due to high whey prices and we know that forecast EBITDA (and FCF) for 2025 is back ended in the expectation of Moulding (so might say blind hope) that whey prices ease off. That is why I suspect they have refinanced now, including the convertible. I suspect it is the right structure in case trading doesn’t recover.

What grates though, is the person that has steered the ship onto the rocks is the person who stands to benefit if whey prices “refloat” the business.

So correct again @oohahh. Of course Matt was totally negligent loading up so much debt against a business that breaks when whey prices rise. He doesn’t of course hold his hand up to that in his Linkedin post.

Fully concur with your sentiments @oohaah

Cheers @oke. I think we have seen enough of the way Moulding operates to know this is equity at all time lows for Moulding via the back door, and that this flimsy Board will have waived it through, unfortunately.

Think it can get there eventually, but will need sustained low whey prices, and a global FMCG partner to drive international offline sales and get Nutriton growing again.

Beauty growth looks a problem to me. Store roll out in UK to drive online customer aquisition, but what about international where we look subscale?

i’m not feeling the fanfare on this deal at all.

smacks of more poor trading, and a need to refinance now rather than take the risk of whey prices staying high and distress later in the year when trying to refi.

no shorts are getting burned here, just long term holders after miss, after miss, after miss…and further dilution.

i hope i’m wrong, but imo this has been forced on moulding by yet another miss in q1. it’s a long time since there’s been any serious good news, it’s usually just a **** sandwich. i expect more of the same.

Let’s not give moulding too much credit here. He’s fixing the debt thag he saddles plc with prior to nicking Ingenuity, and buying back in at all time lows with his favoured cronies diluting us again. He’s not the Robin Hood saviour he’s making out here on his disingenuous linked in post, he put THG in this mess, and he’s going to clean up again here buying in at all time lows

Matt’s unique approach to addressing the valuation gap between the bids that “materially undervalued the business” and his valuation, is to drive the performance of Nutriton into a brick wall, until his valuation and market valuations converge, at which point he will bid to take the business private 😂 😂

Was it 30m FCF in the presentation, reducing net debt and GM ramping up. This isn’t going bust. I reckon we’ll see some decent growth H2.

Just watched US investor presentation.

Detail on how they are positioned utilise AI to disrupt the industry was fascinating, and they clearly have strong relationships with the right tech partners.

All my loose change is going into this one. I may live to regret it, but I doubt it!

Good luck all

Trackers didn’t have a problem getting their hands on 70m shares, plus Frasers a similar amount. There are sellers out there

Time for the BoD to do its job and sack Moulding.

Forget the overhyped IPO, and let’s just look at the CEO’s performance since Apollo was rejected:

1) £1billion+ of Ingenuity capex, no whales (promised 2 years ago), demerged for an equity valuation of £25m. No institutional investors followed him in.

2) 20% decline in Nutrtion revenues.

That is calamitous by anyone’s standards. And that’s after giving the benefit of the doubt on the over bullish IPO.

And let’s not forget the conflict of interest as Ingenuity majority shareholder. Time to go.

Cheers CPI.

That’s pretty much exactly what I wanted to hear.

Exciting times.

**** missed the call, any tit bits cpi?

Solid progress last 6 months IMO, back in control of p&l/cash, and well positioned for AI revolution. Client is encouraging in a tough market. Cheap as chips at £200m.

Not sure I follow your logic the Oke?

Looks to me like the majority of the 70m at market close price has gone to the trackers already so they are rebalanced to track the new index from Monday.

It that’s the case Ashley and trackers have hoovered up 150m shares between them post demerger in the 30s.

We talk about a small “free float” but there have been plenty of sellers. We await any TR1s

@oke, would appreciate your input.

Big volume UT looks like trackers have already picked up their volume through forward transactions at closing price?

Therefore fund buying largely done?

Not seen this before, so would appreciate explanation from someone who knows their onions on how index rebelancing works

FWIW I do think it’s THG they are targeting given the involvement of Iain Mc, Kelso, Leahy.

Unfortunately because it’s THG I don’t trust them to execute!