Member Info for Yesimabeliever

@oke, struggling to understand how Sofina/QIA/Balderton//Chair think they get out of this at any sensible valuation with Moulding at the helm.

Fully concur @licker, Ingenuity demerger has created a governance mess and a major conflict of interest for Moulding as plc CEO. Don’t care what contracts are in place, or NED Board independence oversight there is, Moulding is incentivised to maximise THG spend at Ingenuity. He has to go as THG CEO, NED Board position would be OK, Chair would not be as he would effectively still call the shots.

BoD need to act, after all the CEO ramping in 2023 about US spin offs, divisional sales etc to justify the Apollo rejection. CEO credibility is shot, he promised FCF neutral for 2024 (he missed it by c£100m and that can’t all be justified by high whey prices in Q4). What we got was a semi distressed demerger and equity raise. Thanks Matt you liar.

Chair asleep at the wheel over the uninvestable governance mess he has overseen. Obvious discount to FV for Nutriton and Beauty, no new II investors unless of course you are an insider (like Ashley and Moulding)

I do remember the video, Moulding announcing just about OK results for 2023 as a triumph. I thought the refocusing of the business looked solid at that point, as he pointed towards FCF neutral for 2024…..How he is still in situ after the 2024 he served up is beyond me 🤡

Agree that Nutriton is basically a punt on whey prices, but don’t believe it’s a munter.

With softer whey prices, Nutriton has shown it can be a £100m EBITDA business. Whilst a lower margin model than APN, I actually believe Nutritons d2c model is a good long term bet, set up for a subscription purchasing model.

Earnings volatility is an issue due to the commodity price risk. BoD have been asleep at the wheel on that. Nutriton would be a good bolt on for a major FMCG/dairy group IMO.

Oke, I just don’t see how Moulding can repeat the Ingenuity deal structure.

Nobody wanted Ingenuity. Listed investors utterly rejected it, even Mouldings long term backers rejected it. No one was going to “buy it”, and THG needed a refinancing. It was a neat solution to get rid of the problem, and people had the opportunity to stay invested if they believed in the business.

Now Mouldings long term backers need to recover value in Nutrition and Beauty. I don’t see them wanting to bail out of Nutriton on a lowly valuation, off the back of a rebrand and whey price spike.

Thanks 1p. Think we can expect whey price volatility for some time. Look forward to hearing THGs comments.

Would be sooooooo THG for foot and mouth to be the next nightmare….

Https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/q011473986-upping-the-ante-the-impact-of-chinas-reciprocal-tariffs-on-global-lactose-and-whey-trade

Shouldn’t underestimate impact of tariffs on global whey pricing, given how much diary US are (were) selling to china. Could get volatile whilst the market adjusts, hopefully further to the downside.

Cheers 1p.

I concur traintracks, don’t see why Sofina/balderton/qia will let Nutrition/Beauty assets be “nicked” on the cheap, given it is where they are looking to recover their investment.

All eyes on whey prices for me. Recent trends looking better. Not expecting great Nutrition numbers in Q1, but outlook might be much brighter

Https://www.clal.it/en/index.php?section=whey

First signs of of whey spot prices starting to drop in Europe.

Wonder if Japan and Asia is priced off the US market?

To be fair it takes a special kind of twat for troll a share board day in day out

30th on or around

Oke, we just don’t know what Moulding wants to do. He could take if private (maybe) although he has moaned about putting another £60m into plc, so it is not clear to me how much more he wants to put in, or indeed how liquid £ he is now.

Yes a financial investor should take THG plc as a whole and majority.

However a trade investor may only be interested in one division or another. No reason why global food/drink/FMCG might want a piece of the “protein” trend, and just want to invest into that business and not Beauty. Would they do minority, or 50/50 where THG brings the online expertise (delivered through Ingenuity) and they bring offline networks/product innovation etc., similar to Iceland/Muller etc. Selkirk could provide a vehicle for that sort of equity investment/partnership, as discussed in the Selkirk presentation it is very difficult for a corporate to invest in or acquire a stake of a plc division.

Beauty I believe needs to move to a hybrid online/physical retail model (like Sephora) to reignite growth. Test stores for Look Fantastic/Espa indicate this may be the plan. Could big Mike be buying in prior to supporting Beauty physical roll out?

Nobody knows. Reality is THG looks low growth/slow growth without fresh input/partners etc., and is priced accordingly

Not convinced Selkirk has gone away, it remains a suitable vehicle for spinning off some of Myprotein/bringing in an offline FMCG partner. Q1 just not the macro environment to get any deals done. If the intention is to spin off some of Myprotein, much better to do it on weaker whey prices and trading picking up post rebrand (hopefully). THG still needs a strategic partner to attack the US market, I suspect advisers are still chipping away on that brief. Refinance/convertible buys time to strike a more favourable deal, rather than a firesale in the face of an impending refinancing/volatile international markets. Kelso still very quiet, I think they are insiders now JMO

S4 remains far too cheap IMO but 4 more years of the lunatic in the white house is not helpful. Bizarre policies, erratic decision making, u turns are the norm for the buffoon so investing and business planning very tricky for companies for the forseeable. Suspect tariff threats will be tricky. Doubt this is the last we’ll hear on tariffs from the fool.

Doesn’t deserve much support for the past 18 months but the refi was very well timed. It’s a volatile world out there with the unpredictable🍊nutter so getting the refi done early was the right call. 🤞 the new world order means sustained improvement in JPY.

Thanks for the info.

Well SMS definitely got it wrong in his forecast that trump would be pro business and good for the economy 😂