Member Info for Yesimabeliever

Chill OSG. The prophet Pearls has spoken,

Final verse: “Give it a little time please everyone - I am sure you will now be richly rewarded”

In Pearls we trust.

Personally think it looks like s4 got their house in order here in H2 2024z Balance sheet under control, net debt well below consensus, cost base aligned to current market conditions, conservative forecast for 2025 (acknowledging past problems forecasting). Looking forward to next update, and hopefully a steer towards dividend/share buy backs back end of 2025 early 2026 as marketing spend picks up. Multiples very attractive here IMO for a global agency very well positioned for ongoing tech/ai revolution in global media

Looks sensible Oke, US whey prices seem to be moving on the right direction, could do with JPY starting to play ball

come on guys let’s move on and enjoy our glorious 3 months in the ftse 250 before matt’s next set of ****ty numbers see us relegated 😂😂

More wise words from Pearls.

Now whilst many of us are bloomin jaded with THG after what has been a tough hold, let’s not lose our nerves and sell too cheap ahead of what are hopefully the start of better times ahead. 🤞

@oke Steve Whitehead said they had been advised trackers needed c60m shares on a call last year (feels like a long time ago)

@LD1973 maybe lay off Elmsley - a good contributor here, straight and honest. The tiff with pearls was a bit silly, Pearls was correct so credit to him, but let’s enjoy a good evening for team THG

THG could be looked at as a new listing, due to the recent category move JMO

I agree with 404 absolutely no credit to the BoD on this. In by the skin of their teeth, 2 years too late, and in the midst of a whey price spike. No good news “managed” either over the last few weeks either. So a shambles as ever by the BoD, but in nonetheless. Phew.😰

Well done to pearls for knowing his rule 8.3.4. And Rock8

“Immoral midget” 😂

How tall is he Steve?

As per Oke's note, is the recovery play here not just falling whey prices?

Nutrition has been £80m+ cash generating beast in the past, if it can return to form (and whey trends are looking more encouraging) I can see things looking very different come H2

Delighted to have had the opportunity to add more with a market cap sub £200m. Unbelievable multiples for a global digital platform, well positioned to capitalise on the adoption of AI across the industry. Come on SMS, lets have some growth to get things moving here.

QIA/Balderton/Sofina we happy to let Ingenuity go for £25m. Shows they don’t think that business is worth much. I doubt they’d let him repeat the trick on Nutriton/beauty where they are looking to recover their investment. Just can see it even with our questionable Board.

Agreed Oke, Moulding has to go, can’t have a plc CEO who is totally toxic to new public market institutional investors.

Where’s your head with your nil premium take private theory? I just don’t see how that gets through any BoD unless THG about to go bust, which it isn’t. Even MMs lapdog GLA would struggle to waive that through

@osg, yes debt needs renegotiating in due course albeit net debt is lower than 600m accounting for cash in the business.

BoD wouldn’t have signed off demerger etc without deliverable plan to refinance THG’s debt, and with improved THG FCF post Ingenuity demerger, I’m not worried about it.

Only spanner in the works I can see is if whey price spike accelerates further and is sustained, resulting in deteriorated THG cash generation (and therefore ability to service debt). Fortunately whey futures seem to be heading in the right direction

It the whole group was going private, it would have happened pre demerger surely. Can’t see it unfortunately JMO

Fully agree 404, we can forget “predators” for THG, any investment has to be “friendly” as they will have to work with Moulding as super majority holder of Ingenuity. I know Oke thinks a hostile Ashley would unpick the Ingenuity contracts, I just don’t see it. THG is entirely reliant on Ingenuity for its revenues, it’s impossible to unpick in the short term IMO.

The best we can hope for I think is a strategic investor that is happy to partner with Moulding. That’s why I believe strategic FMCG investor into nutrition, probably via Selkirk to seperate from Beauty, bringing offline US distribution is the most likely route forward here. It’s a limited pool of possible interested parties, but the most likely way forward IMO.

Yeah, number of challenges to a PE deal now:

1) No organic growth

2) Ingenuity interdependence (controlled by Moulding)

3) Moulding!

An Apollo restructuring type PE deal was the one to do, but Moulding & Co wanted to retain control at the time. That ship has sailed IMO

@pearls, he’s only responding to a request re %s etc and I for one appreciate his input.

No point sniping re FTSE 250 inclusion , if you are correct you can say I told you so soon enough. If you are wrong…..