Member Info for Yesimabeliever

Yep it’s not looking like Ingenuity.

Could they be going after Beauty/Look Fantastic, with a push into offline after recent concept store.

Traditional retail expertise with Munro/Leahy,

All speculation, but the whole 49% structure does seem tailor made for a THG division.

Inclined to agree BlueWiley..thanks for share Ryanf.

Would be interested in seeing the multiples on this recent raise

https://www.shipbob.com/uk/blog/series-e-funding/

Good luck to you Yorek.

I’m going down a a different route. Given the fact that under the terms of the demerger Ingenuity is a relatively small fraction of my investment here, I am going to roll the dice and take up the shares as a “cheap” option. If it doesn’t work out so be it, but I am just not comfortable on the BoD Ingenuity valuation versus other, much smaller D2C privately owned fufilment businesses. Ingenuity is a £600m+ recurring revenue business, is heavily invested and and has some serious scale.

https://techcrunch.com/2023/11/30/tech-enabled-warehousing-startup-huboo-raises-another-36-6m-amid-continued-e-commerce-growth/

At this stage I don’t share your goodwill towards the NED’s.

The information surrounding this demerger process and the circular is far too opaque for my liking. People are being asked to make an investment decision on inadequate information IMO. Too many gaps to list.

Good luck all.

IMO it was always MM intention to spin off Ingenuity. He raised possible future spin off at or around the time of the SoftBank deal. Issue is, they have failed to scale enterprise 3rd party revenue fast enough to try prove the long term viability of the model, hence the demerger valuation of £25m!

As for why now, pretty clear from the pre demerger fundraise that THG was running out of cash to continue to fund Ingenuity to cash flow break even with bond refinancing on the horizon.

@telx cheers for the detail re small print re priority for ingenuity allocation to minorities.

Out of curiosity, does anybody have a view on current utilisation of Ingenuity’s capacity?

Plaza I think your strategy is a good one, I’d be trying the same if I had more loose change to tie up for 5 years+. As it stands I’ll just take my 13% allocation. I do suspect however MM will be prioritising himself (and maybe Mike Ashley) over others in Ingenuity so suspect you may get capped at 13% regardless 🤷‍♂️

Yep call me cynical, but I do expect Ashley’s £10m investment to land him 10% of Ingenuity post demerger. If that is the case, a short while after Ashley has his hands on the shares, expect a deepening of Frasers/Ingenuity partnership. It’s the only way I can make sense of Ashley’s measly £10m investment, I don’t see why he would want such a small stake in THG plc.

Https://www.linkedin.com/posts/adam-knappy-1800b358_intrapreneaurs-influencermarketing-thgsociety-ugcPost-7269430270238375937-yDOR?utm_source=combined_share_message&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_campaign=whatsapp

Good luck Smyths 🤞

@telx the adjusting items make the 2023 cash flow forecast pretty useless

From what I can see you can expect £20m annualised capex and then c£20m leases on an ongoing basis.

I know they said limited corp tax for 3 years.

Remainco needs to deleverage, and strong trading is require otherwise it will be another dilutive raise to tackle the debt rather than dividends or buybacks.

My main interest in this is Remainco’s ability to refinance the debt post demerger if whey prices stay elevated, and Nutrition too line doesn’t bounce back post rebrand.

thx yorek.

i've got to the stage where i don't trust matt's forecasts on anything!

just want to do a quick back of *** packet calculation on what whey prices will do to remainco ebitda/fcf if they stay at current levels.

Just trying to piece together a forecast for remainco Ebidta and FCF for 2025 with elevated whey prices.

Has anyone done a similar exercise before I delve into the murky world of THG's financial reporting and try and piece it together

What comment OSG?

If fairness to JG he essentially runs Ingenuity from what I can see. Chair & CEO are sales guys focused on growth. It was always obvious to me JG would go with Ingenuity

I’ve not actually looked, but does anyone know if Kelso are even able to hold private shares? Ie can they take up

Ingenuity shares in a private co?

Again fully concur Elmsley.

Fully concur Elmsley

Come on guys, looking to acquire an undervalued plc division. You think demerged Ingenuity has a bright future.

How about a cheeky bid to really make things interesting. Currently going private for buttons.