Member Info for Yesimabeliever

Benefits presented by Iain McDonald of Selkirk structure was:

- it helps Group address the “conglomerate discount” by setting a valuation for seperated division, but maintaining a majority stake in the division for future upside

- facilitates future investment/partnership/acquisition by trade. Suggested there were difficulties for trade to buy into group structure (it sounded to me like THG had tried and failed to get minority investment partners into the nutrition/beauty with structure as was).

- provides a vehicle for selling down further equity in the future.

On the other hand, Selkirk said their minority model works for them because they would get in at a good price. I’d argue that means if it is THG, they are selling too cheap to maintain control.

Only backslapping and brown nosing allowed in the “comments” on MM’s linkedin post, but he can’t control the narrative everywhere on social media.

Chris Macquire (journalist) commented on MM’s post in a very plain vanilla manner as he always does, but good to see Anthony Greensmith (Vice Chair DC Advisory) challenging the cheerleading in comments and questioning the returns on $1.5billion invested.

@oohahh, hope you had a good Xmas.

Interested to hear your thoughts on next steps. Minority bid from Selkirk to start seperating remainco?

Knew we’d be getting a tone deaf video from MM at some point.

I’ve taken up my allocation in Ingenuity as believe it is undervalued on the LSE, but this video is so inappropriate.

Here we have a Remainco CEO taunting the city that he has got Ingenuity control back for buttons and blaming them for not valuing it properly. No humility and acknowledgement in relation to his own failings in contributing to this outcome. Missed target after missed target, incompetent capital markets day, lost investor trust across a huge proportion of the market. where are the Ingenuity whales promised 2 years ago Matt?

It amazes me that the NED BoD are happy to associate themselves with a Remainco CEO putting a video like this out.

Not sure why Hunter is getting criticised here, for selling shares at IPO. He was a long term backer and entitled to take some cash off the table, just as he is entitled

to reinvest if he sees value at these levels. Are we going to criticise KKR for exiting fully at IPO?

Hoping for a minority stake to be sold in either beauty or nutrition pre refinancing,

Spot whey prices up throughout q4, and futures elevated for 2025

Looking like whey input prices are likely to be a serious drag on Remainco cash generation in 2025, even if top line recovers post rebrand.

Was always going to happen after volume dried up going ex date. Suspect it will be a bumpy run into the new year.

2024 has been a year to forget for THG shareholders in terms of share price action, but whether you like the demerger or not (and I think the BoD could have done better) we have finally seen some action.

Optimistic that 2025 will start to see separation and main listing unlocking some value. Whey prices aren’t helping, but maybe Selkirk can give us a nudge along.

Not expecting material news until the vote, so checking out for Xmas.

Good luck to all genuine holders on here, and maybe some of those who post negative commentary on the price action all day long maybe find a bit of Xmas spirit and have a week off.

@osg I haven’t read the shareholders agreement yet.

Not unusual in a private co to have and executive board (on which ward and parton sit, and a seperate shareholder board for major shareholders

Not thought through governance impact, but new electing Ingenuity for my pro rata allocation was a punt, but a risk I am willing to take

Don’t disagree on your sentiment OSG. My takeaway FWIW, having watched the Selkirk presentation a couple of times, is that this is MM’s/IainMc’s plan C. Last years plan A that they were hinting at was US spin offs (but McDonald now says they arent attractive enough to US market because less than $2 billion). Then we had the hints from Jefferies about strategic minority trade investors/partners into Beauty/Nutrition (but McDonald now says doesn’t work into a conglomerate structure ie they failed). So now plan C is demerge Ingenuity into a private co for buttons, and then effectively separate nutrition/beauty by selling of a big minority stake in one of them to a LSE listed shell (in spite of MM repeatedly say the LSE is useless and has no investors). They can get a minority deal away by selling at a “conglomerate discount”, ie too cheap. So an inferior deal to Apollo for PI’s, but enable MM & chums to retain control of all 3 divisions

@osg didn’t Helmsley leave numis in 2016, don’t see how moulding could hold a grudge against him for actions by numis well after his watch passed.

If Selkirk is bidding on minority interests in THG’s assets, it looks like financial engineering gone mad in order for MM to retain control. Ironic given MM’s dismissal of Apollo’s smart financial engineering in their bid.

We’ll just have to wait and see OSG.

I understand your scepticism re city/institutions appetite for anything THG related given the recent history, but It’s not a huge leap of faith with Kelso/McDonald/Munro/Leahy involved to believe they have their eyes on a THG target.

If it is nutrition they are going after, questionable timing for THG shareholders to extract maximum value given soft recent numbers (rebrand) and elevated whey prices 🤷‍♂️ . Inwoulf have thought a better time to sell down a stake in Beauty after a stronger year

Think you could be on the money oke.)

THG studios must be putting the finishing touches to the THG triumphant Xmas video. I am looking forward to Matt’s flexing about 2024 performance. Last year we kong swinging off sky scrapers and Matt comparing himself Beckham/Robbie Williams. I am looking forward to his positive spin on halving the share price, the worlds longest rebrand, and heroically taking Ingenuity private for £25m having spent billions on it 😂

@osg, as ever your points are well made on Selkirk.

I guess we will only know their true intentions when they make their move.

I find the concept of Selkirk bizarre. A listed investment vehicle, to make a private equity style investment in a single, undervalued listed division, with a private equity style structure, BUT only a minority investment. It’s almost as if it has been dreamed up on a bespoke basis, for megalomaniac CEO who needs a rerate but won’t give up control of any of his divisions.

I don’t believe NCC CEO has the emotional attachment and would sell either division outright if the price is right.

FWIW OSG I’ve been in NCC a fair while predating Kelso’s investment, I just don’t post on that one as it is just not such a crazy share as THG. IMO it should/will be broken up and the cyber business should end up in US ownership of some sort (prob trade). Could selkirk be the first step in that by taking escrow 🤷‍♂️. It is certainly a cash cow, I just have Iain Mc down as more of a D2C guy, but who knows. Good luck whatever you decide to do.

Worth watching the presentation OSG. Iain Mc very clear where his sector expertise is and focus for looking for a deal: Don’t think NCC’s cyber or escrow businesses fit the bill.

Iain Mc has been jawboning how undervalued THG’s assets are for a long time, I live in hope that he might finally be about to do THG’s shareholders a favour.

Link to video kindly provided by Ryanf

https://youtu.be/hr1HRBNf7UI?si=hhjsM2d0yBMJYx8

Certainly reads like Selkirk may bid on Remainco assets. If it does come to pass, a bizarre twist given MM/Munro Kelso Pacman and “my dogs have more shares”gate. Never dull at the THG circus.

Give it a chance Steve, as you know it’s not uncommon for value to go down in the early stages of a demerger. Suspect Ingenuity demerger is just stage 1 of a bigger plan.