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@novice take the p1ss and you show him up for the plank that he is. And we get to laugh at him as well. Keep up the good work.
@LD think MM/TGL would argue it is their job to make decisions in the long term interests of the majority of THG shareholders, rather than manage short term share price movements. Yes frustrating for us PI’s who want a rerate and a return, but if you are convinced that the right path is off the LSE it is possible to rationalise MM/TGL actions IMO.
Yes @LD, if you do exactly the opposite of what buy high sell low Ste2k has been recommending you would be very rich by now!
@OSG your frustrations are valid and noted.
My view (and I think Crafty's is probably quite similar), is that to have maintained support of the 65% to date, MM must have a credible plan to address THG's valuation issue, and some sort of capital event plan to move part of or all of THG away from the LSE.
If he can't execute it soon and THG is to stay in whole on the LSE, then I don't see how MM can credibly remain as CEO given his public outbursts. If there is no alternative to the LSE, then I agree wholeheartedly with Kelso's sentiment that the premium listing move should have happened already.
Lets see what the next few months bring, there are a number of ways this can play out, most likely a friendly take private taking out the free float, but failing that hostile if MM loses control of some of the 65%.
But I see significant upside or patient shareholders, and lets face it we deserve it!
I’m with you crafty. Whatever MM’s hand is, he needs to play it soon if he wants to retain control.
The only pattern I see Ste2k is your posts getting duller and duller, whilst the share prices trend is up. Yawn
@ OSG, understand you are frustrated at MM, and clearly MM has made some mistakes along the way. But to balance some of your criticisms:
Strategy update
- Current strategy is very clear to me, focus on margin and cash generation, and focus on core territories where growth is profitable in the short term.
- Exploring strategic options to address the Group's valuation - looks like they are keeping their options open to maximise value and running multi track across Beauty & Nutrition. I don't expect a running commentary on the process as it may weaken their negotiating hand, particularly with partners
- Whilst people are frustrated that nothing has happened "yet", macro conditions are only just opening up for maximising value for existing shareholders IMO. I'm expecting something this year
Consider share buybacks
With what cash? FCF+ should be used to reduce debt
Premium listing
Rules changing to a single LSE category, so not much THG can do on this until new regime is confirmed. Delay is down to the LSE/FCA not THG
Share price fall since NY
You say that is Iain Mac related, I say that is markets getting ahead of itself on rate cuts at the back end of 23, and then unwinding in 24. We are starting to see that reverse again now
US Bound/MBO - and then nothing
All still possibly in play IMO, but we won't know until the right deal is on the table for THG's existing shareholders
Who's decision is it not to publish Bid prices?
There can be whole raft of commercial reasons why they have kept it confidential
£50 Rebrand
That is a 5 year plus investment in the brand. Hard to evaluate effectiveness until 2025
We all know there is plenty of inherent value in nutrition & beauty, but THG only gets back to £5 a share with significant 3rd party Ingenuity "whales" IMO. I still believe this is possible as no doubt the market opportunity is there, hopefully Crane and his new CEO can sell the solution better than we have the last 2 years.
But lets no beat around the bush, 75p is nowhere near fair value for this share even without quick Ingenuity winds.
Rate cuts, LSE rule changes, capital events all on the table. Baffles me why anyone would be short here.
@osg, do I believe the share price is massively undervalued. Yes I do. There is the investment opportunity. I believe it will correct, and suspect it will be this calendar year. How long will I give it, as long as it takes unless my view on the business changes.
I don’t buy into the narrative that MM and the Board are muppets, and don’t second guess every decision on limited information. Happy to be aligned with the long term II’s who have a lot more money at stake than me.
@osg but isn’t the point that Apollo weren’t offering good money. Say it was £2 offer, fine for me and PI’s in at low averages - a quick buck. But rubbish if you are one of the II’s that wants to roll and Apollo then has priority rights on the Beauty/Nutrition assets which your prior investment built. Don’t see how the 65% were ever going for that
Reduce leverage sorry
@osg your frustrations are noted. The Board doesn’t have forever to get the share price up, and moves will have to be made to get the value up to maintain the support of the 65%. I don’t believe the money spent on separation has been wasted, it’s is part of a long term plan. Can or will we be in the same situation in 12 months time, no I don’t believe we will. MM and many of his investors have spent 10+ building value in the group, so they aren’t going to be in a rush to carve up/refinance group at a discount in a tough macro environment, they aren’t after all in distress as FCF+ and able to rescue leverage this year. I’m still confident MM will make his moves this calendar year, and PI’s that stick in will see their rewards.
Well said @knowbody. I don’t get the outrage on the Apollo bid rejection. MM put a clear note out saying the bid was rejected by the Board because 1) it undervalued the THG’s prospects 2) Deal structure didn’t allow existing II shareholders to role without being subordinated to Apollo on nutrition and Beauty 3) Too much leverage. Majority of shareholders backed that decision, so that why the outrage?
The share price has fallen back, but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t the correct decision. Shareholders need to be patient here and back the Board, value will out in the end
Closed above 74. Ste2k’s obsession. He’s bullish. Expect him to now be spamming the board 50 times a day with rampy messages . Maybe Ste2k is City Spy
Ste2000
Posts: 2,854
Price: 73.90
No Opinion
RE: Blue DayToday 10:36
Clears+holds 74p = bullish
@silent I kid you not
Ste2000
Posts: 2,854
Price: 73.90
No Opinion
RE: Blue DayToday 10:36
Clears+holds 74p = bullish
@ste2k is now bullish, it’s closed over 74. Welcome to the light side. Take this as your cue to stop spamming this board please with your nonesense - that includes your other ID’s
Thank @1p will have a look later
Also does anyone have an electronic list of standard listed shares?
Whilst you are here @Ste, still interested to hear your views on upcoming LSE rule share category changes, and index tracker buying of THG? Not that interested in your running commentary on 74p
Noted @ Ste2k that you’ve not offered a view on what LSE rule changes mean for THG buying volumes in H2 due to index trackers. We’re all keen to hear?
@Lordeh don’t think steveinhull is a shorter, just a frustrated shareholder. It’s only Ste2k/APH/GTC/polishcap that are the same person I think