Member Info for Yesimabeliever

For those that missed John Goolds post on strategic FMCG investments, hopefully Moulding can pull one of these off one day with the like of pepsi/coke/mars etc. Protein certainly looks the right type of market for it.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/john-goold-a6837416_myprotein-secret-weapon-to-dominate-sports-activity-7380902370265739264-1HLK?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&rcm=ACoAAAIQX9QBNPf0RYlRdjXsyB8Y5nPYKte-zMk

Good find crafty.

Myprotein is certainly “on trend” and in a growth market. THG really ought to be able to ride crest of this wave and deliver some enhanced equity value for shareholders.

As ever, the challenge for Moulding seems to be convincing the market that it can do so with a business model that delivers both the growth and margins.

Matt has bet the house on the rebrand, partnerships, liscencing, offline being the driver of value: After a testing 18 months during the rebrand, last 2 quarters showing encouraging signs, but I guess next 6-12 months are going to prove up the new model one way or another. 🤞

Be very interesting to see where Nutrition valuation is in 12 months time. 2 years ago Nutrition was the jewel in the crown, throwing off cash, and £1billion plus valuation.

Then along came the rebrand and whey price spike and the market wrote it down to buttons.

Nutrition looks back in an exciting place now, partnership concepts live and working well, and offline distribution growing in US/Asia. If THG can drive down cost of new customer acquisition offline, and convert to sticky D2C and subscription customers, exciting times ahead. Yes APN might have nicer margins currently, but personally I’m much happier to be invested in THG at their relative scale and valuations.

Not sure it will convert, might be like bridging finance whilst THG waited for Claremont and other disposal .

Cheers Co CPI

Crafty returns 👏👏👏👏

Hopefully Matt’s “RNS could drop any day” is a bit firmer than his “imminent whales” three years ago..😂

But I do agree this can get to £1 with a Bentley disposal, and falling whey prices….

Personally I’ll reevaluate this when we get to at or around £1. I think we’ll get there via a non core disposal (sooner rather than later as per last call), and an easing of whey prices (in 2026 hopefully)

Will need some strategic initiatives to unlock value above £1 IMO. FMCG minority investor as per John Goolds recent note may be the answer, I’m concerned where the growth comes from for Beauty.

@poker “SFOR have chosen not to create AI solutions themselves which are extremely expensive .....but using partnerships with those who are doing the tech advancements for them”

S4 have the correct model IMO. A good friend of mine has scaled and exited multiple tech orientated professional services businesses. he sells services and solutions to Enterprise scale customers leveraging the best available technology in the market. He has no interest in developing the software himself, because someone is always coming along with something better to plug in.

S4 looks to have the right model and relationships to me, the error was over exposure to tech clients. I believe those declines are finally about to work themselves out of the numbers and we should be back to growth by Q4. But do

I think s4 has the right model, yes I do

Agreed @shaun

Are we expecting green shoots in the Q3 trading update, or do we have to wait another quarter.

Think it was bought for 250m us

Bull market purchase, but US manufacturing should be attractive in a trump tariff world.

Hopefully you’d at least get your cash back, but guessing as we don’t know how it is trading due to THGs merky reporting

Lots of reasons to be optimistic:

1) Growth again (although let’s see the margin!)

2) Another material disposal looks likely to address net debt

3) Muller and Iceland partnerships going great guns, providing a model for further products/territories

4) VAT refund still possible (suprised he wasn’t asked for update)

5) Confectionary partnership still to be announced

6) European food to go partnership still to be announced

Am I missing anything

Most interesting Q right at the end. Inbound interest in manufacturing assets, they would do another Claremont at the right price, and private market valuations are sound. He basically said an RNS could come at anytime if they can agree a deal that works for them. I’m expecting Bentley to go and clear the debt personally

Nice summary Oculus.

Certainly better than the shxte we’ve served up tbr last couple of years

THG nutrition value could rerate pretty quickly if the new business model for growth post rebrand around liscencing/partnerships, offline etc takes hold. We need stable or dropping whey prices though ideally.

I’m more concerned about Beauty at the moment, as cant see any clear initiatives in place to get it growing again. Mid digit growth as an aspiration is so meh…

No need to apologise @italian, i didnt have a link to the VAT appeals list before so useful share anyway. As ever we wait and good news.

At least this one is out of management control, so they can’t muck it up!

Chap ChatGBT has very kindly told me it will alert me if there is any public update re the VAT appeals. Will keep you posted

This list hasn’t been updated since the 7th August though, which was after THGs half year results, when THG said HMRC had 1 week beffore they were timed out on appeal. So don’t think this tells us anything new either way