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Not exactly a “whale” though is it. Whatever happened to Ingenuity only chasing higher margin “enterprise” clients. Also not “total commerce”, all Ingenuity seems to be able to sell is fulfilment solutions. So Ingenuity is now a Fulfiment solution to SMEs, a valid business model but not the one we were told they were going after. Another red flag on managements ability to stick to a plan and execute IMO

Fair comment Toby on the timing of the insider buying.

Hearing the discussion of “asset based” billing vs time on the call, sounds like it is in its infancy at the moment but that is where they want to take it with clients rather than something they have serious traction with now. Hopefully 2026 is the year they get traction.

Cheers Shandy pants. IMO THGs profitability is most likely weighed down by heavily invested international operations that haven’t grown at suffcient pace post Covid to give economies of scale. Of course we don’t have any details of the contracts between Ingenuity/THG to provide any visibility. Will THGs new offline demand generation help drive growth and reduce marketing spend. Hopefully so.

But THGs numbers are very opaque.

Plenty of room for multiple expansion in time, but those Q3 numbers were pretty disappointing IMO.

Possible green shoots in US marketing services, but no dressing up Europe/Asia and Technology Services numbers which were awful.

Interesting insight that @prox. Hopefully it is Mars and there is more to it that THG just liscencing in some of their brands. We live cab in hope if their exec got a bit jumpy 😂 😂 . Well done on putting them on the spot.

Cheers Runs4.

Appreciate it is a tough market.

My point is as much as anything about forecasting/communication as anything.

After the the “misses” last year, we were told that Tech Services declines were primarily the loss of a large single banking client that would fully cycle out in H1. And yet here we are in 16+% down again in Q3. Look likes the problems run deeper.

Hard to get back to growth when you haven’t stopped the bleeding.

Anyway, onwards and upwards, just a bit of frustration they haven’t delivered better numbers.

Thought we were told that technology services declines would cycle out of the comparables in H1? And yet still a big drag in Q3.

His comments around dividends vs buy backs, suggested SMS will review options again when net debt is sub £100m. Ie he seems comfortable at that level of gearing, and surplus cash will be distributed when that target is hit, most likely via dividends as the they believe that will get more traction than buy backs

Summary:

- Q4 2025 won’t be as strong as last years so will be YoY decline

- signs of stabilisation of marketing spend in tech clients, and starting to market their AI products

- new client revenue coming building up slower than anticipated. SMS acknowledged their challenges forecasting top line, so 2026 guidance will be cautious (he said the same last year!)

- AI pipeline building including a number of projects using AI to create video. Clients still typically “testing” alongside their traditional way of doing things

- That said 2 FMCG clients using S4 to embed AI across their marketing support supply chain

- debate as to whether AI production savings will be reinvested into buying media or taken as a cost saving by CFO. Too early to say

- will continue to look hard at the cost base in 2026, with medium term target of 20% margins

- S4s to 20 and 50 clients in growth, so strategy on focusing on scaled enterprise relationships is working

Disappointing for me.

Revenue guidance adjusted down yet again. I was expecting after miss after miss they would have stopped doing that by now. Poor for a man of Sorrells experience.

Only slight positive is that US marketing services back into growth (very small)

Europe and Asia performance, and technology services still a major drag.

At least EBTDA forecast held.

Be interesting to see if we get any further commentary tomorrow around net debt trajectory/enhanced dividend.

Personally would prefer to see cash retained in the business.

Market Cap sub £150m, on a global business with deep tech relationships and AI capability, capable of landing “whoppers” like GM. Crazy really.

No agenda Oculus, I’ve been invested a long time here and would love the share price up.

I’d love the partnerships announcements to be massive to move the share price up, I’m just not pinning my hope on it. If it is just a bit of liscencing in of a confectioner brand into protein powders etc then I suspect the market won’t react. I’d love it to be a more meaningful two way partnership, maybe en route to a minority investment, I’m just cynical that it may not live up to the hype on here in the short term.

Likewise the “food to go” partnership isnt launching until Q1, so we may not hear more on that until next year. And it’s not like Iceland moved the dial on the SP when that was “annouced”. Likewise “muller”. We may need to see the impact of these partnerships in the p&l before the market rerates.

I’d love to be proved wrong, but not expecting the new “partnership” announcements to move the dial here.

In the short term it’s a disposal (and VAT) to give us a quick boost, otherwise market will only slowly reward consistent Q on Q growth and improving margins.

Still think we could see £1 by back end of 2026, but will need a disposal and favourable whey prices.

🤞for tomorrow. Think your analysis is spot on Runs4

I’d be disappointed with Sorrell if he doesn’t hold the line on flat EBITDA YoY via cost cuts.

Would love Q3 revenue YoY to be flat with stabilising tech spend mentioned at H1 results and new client wins feeding in, but expecting very slight YoY decline.

Hopefully a positive outlook with building momentum on AI initiatives with clients, time to turn some of the talk into growth.

🤞for tomorrow.

Runs4 think you analysis is spot on.

I’d be very disappointed

Cheers Auson

Had a look at Brave Bisons multiples/market cap 👀

Ingenuity could look very different in 3 years time if Google partnership can help encourage some new clients on board. Ingenuity always had potential to be a valueable business, £1billion+ recurring revenue, sticky clients, but needs concentration of “THG clients” to get below 40% to become really valuable. Google might be the partner to help them do that, because let’s face it Mouldings only landed H&B of any note in the last 3 years, and that was an “interim” deal whilst H&B modernised their own infrastructure. Moulding failed to grow it on his own, but fancy their chances much better on google cloud and with google developers/Google AI modernising their platform.

Expect confectioner announcement soon, may have wait for food2go as doesn’t launch until Q1. Fingers crossed disposal/vat news come soon.

Interested to hear what folks are expecting from the Q3 trading update?

We’re nearly half way through Q4, and will need to see revenue growth in H2 to hit mid digit revenue declines for full year result after H1 declines.

Are we expecting growth in Q3? Google declines had stabilised according to half year call, and new clients such as GM starting to feed into the numbers. Will we finally get a more bullish outlook from SMS?

I popped my head into the new flagship SportsDirect in Liverpool yesterday. Huge store, with massive state of the art everlast gym on the top floor. Promotion of Hyrox and Myprotein was very prominent throughout the store.