Member Info for Yelacoirii

Fundamentals will tell in the end etc - but really what the share needs is some institutional investors who drain the float. So the price stops collapsing whenever a bunch of traders offload £50k worth of shares.
Hopefully that happens once the 51/49 split takes place.

Glad I got another 100kish shares at 10.50~ a couple of weeks back.
Wouldn't let me buy more than about 2-3k shares this afternoon. See some other people got through though.
Would obviously enjoy a nice climb back towards a 25-40 range.

Yeah. Not adding much but I chipped in yesterday and it appeared as a sell here.
I'm not sure it really matters in the grand scheme of things, but in case anyone is looking at the sea of red numbers and thinking its right.

Kind of negative situation really.
Continue to think OMI has a great asset and that will eventually realise a much higher share price than today.
But equally could see the share price drifting in the short term, with nothing really to keep it up. If people will sell today for 12.50, I can't see why, barring unexpected news, they wouldn't sell for 10 in a week or three's time. Without news on the horizon I can't see why buys would be rushing in.

At the same time if you are out completely, I don't fancy your chances of calling exactly when an RNS is going to drop that puts a rocket under the share price.

It would obviously be great if Newmont and Agnico announced say a $10m drill program because they just want to get on with things. But I'm not sure how realistic that is.

I wouldn't expect a takeover offer tomorrow but its not impossible to see one in say 18 months.

It depends on how quickly things evolve. They can run things to completion - but if they were to find 5m+ oz that leaves Omi fully carried with 20% of an asset potentially worth billions. Lets say in that situation Omi would be worth 300-500m, so something like £1.5-2.5/share. It would therefore seem to make sense to buy them out before you got to that stage. (If the share price were ever to start moving up Omi may also find it easier to issue new shares, raise capital, and get involved in other projects, but lets ignore that for now.)

People got upset when I said it last time - but realistically, if Newmont said "60p to clear off today" I suspect most would take it - even if the 20% through to completion could be worth say £2. (I'm a shareholder, obviously I'd like a lot more - but as an example.) The issue is the window - because if they start proving up reserves with good expectation to find more the price would start to rise. So it may not happen because events run too quickly.

I doubt there are any shorters in a share like this. The volume is too small, the risk too high. Why would any institution bother?

Because there is a relatively small market cap so if people want to sell the price goes down quickly.
Its a mirror to the fact the share price surges if a lot of people want to buy in.

Right now there isn't much to do except wait on drilling, while a whole load of other stocks are receiving a vaccine based recovery. So day traders have been trying to get out. Give it a month or three then they'll all want in again.

This really.

Can't say it will happen - but if there is the amount of gold everyone hopes for, there seems no obvious reason the majors will want to carry Omi along to eventually claim 25% of it. An offer around £2 would be nice.

If there is a solid sign NM are committed to taking this forward then the shares should be a lot more valuable. Whether that will cause it to spike to 10-15p is unclear, but its not entirely implausible. You might hope there would be a retrace of the spike you saw almost 2 years ago on the original deal.

The share price could easily go for a walk - because the real money implied remains small.
Is Anza worth £3, £4, £10, £20, even £50 million etc?
Well... if it comes off its almost certainly worth many times that, and if it doesn't its worth nothing. Balance of risk etc - but yes, on sentiment this could go up sharply very quickly. Or it may not.

Egocentric, but my average is now 6, so getting above that would be nice. Paper profits>paper losses.

If Newmont are taking a long view, Anza will be earmarked for the next gold spike rather than this one. Which as investors isn't great. Then again you can't tell how long these things will last for. If gold does hit $2000 (wouldn't bet on it tbh) then the upside to projects like this would encourage picking up the pace.

On the other hand time ticks by. I can't quite work out what Omi is spending each year - but if Newmont maintain their deal, they should start spending $4m on the project next year rather than $1m a year. Which either means project development or cash build up in OMI. 2.5 years is a long time - but if Newmont has spent $8m on the project, or Omi has say $6m in the bank, its not likely the share price can continue to be this low. Or at least there isn't a rational reason for it to be that low.

Whether its a pump and dump or a correction remains to be seen - but I think this is more the market going "wait, Gold is approaching a 7 year high and isn't Omi meant to be a gold company?" Admittedly one that isn't producing any gold - but one which theoretically has a very good asset.

Really its very hard to say what Omi is "worth", as a company that is essentially drifting along, waiting for Newmont to press the magic button (which could happen tomorrow or many years from now, or never). Is a company in such a state worth £5m, £10m, £25m etc?

Can appreciate the CEO just wanting to be "out" of Uruguay, and by no means an expert, but I feel those assets and exploration rights really should be worth *something* with gold at $1650/1700, even if they were basically worthless at $1250~.

I thought about going to the AGM - but only saw it was happening with 2 days notice (bad research) and by then it was too late.
But... really I can't imagine they said much that was different to the public statements?
NM can perform as slowly as the contract, or as fast as they like. From a shareholder perspective this may have been a mistake - but when you are looking for essentially a free carry, your terms are not likely to be great.

In terms of the SP - you have either hype, or results. All we have is the right to get at what we hope is a mountain of gold. Some businesses spike wildly on that potential - but arguably here NM acts as a restraint rather than a boost because we can't sell ourselves twice.

So really the hype has to be either NM going faster than the time schedule (so we are not waiting years for value to be proven) - or (probably more likely) NM decide there is value here, they can't be bothered with OMI and just buy the rest of the company out. (And the former will inevitably produce rumours of the latter).

And tbh this is why I'm here. This could spike to 6p, 10p, 13p in an afternoon (and I think there will be such spikes from time to time). I feel (possibly wrongly) that in terms of the industry, a ten bag to 30p, valuing OMI at about 50m~ isn't impossible - and would occur very quickly on any concrete news. But I can't say whether that's going to happen in 6 months or 6 years. It may never happen.

I wouldn't expect much at Uruguay.
The potential upside argument is that the mines there are being closed down because while there is gold at the site, it was uneconomic to extract it. The all in sustaining cost (AISC) was about $1340-1350, while gold was selling for just $1250. In theory at least, if gold were to take a leg up, and hold around the £1400-1450 range - never mind jumping to $1550 as certain excitable commentators claim could happen by the end of the year, that mine would theoretically be commercially viable again.

Unfortunately this has come too late. As per the April report, they are covering the tailing dam with gravel and removing the water. The equipment is in the process of being sold. This will raise funds to close the mine responsibly and pay of debts.

So the thin hope would be that if gold were to get to and stabilise at around $1450~, they could either reverse this process and open the mine again, or - perhaps more likely given the financial situation - someone else might bid a reasonable sum to get access to the territory and all related equipment. There was for example talk of digging the underground mine at VETA A, which should be more efficient, although potentially environmentally sensitive. If gold was suddenly very profitable, it might be possible to find investment (and, cynically, sufficient tax revenue to grease any permits) to make that possible.

This is however pure speculation, with no indication from the board they are exploring this option rather than just closing the mine, so shouldn't be factored into people's investment plans.

The £5k buy at 15.38 was mine.
Trying to buy more but as of the last 10~ minutes they can't seem to find any.

Still a bit concerned this is a strange pump and dump, but at the same time, gold has gone above $1400. $1450 was my mark for Loryser potentially recouping some business value (depending on what stage that sale is going through).

I'm a bit over 8p. With hindsight if I knew this would end up here I wouldn't have brought so many. Could average down to say 5-5.50, but don't really want even more shares.

Unfortunately... I don't see anything changing in the short run. Newmont can take this very slowly. They probably don't even have to make a decision on spending $10m for another 18-24 months. I am a bit concerned what will happen to OMI in 18 months time when they get the final $0.5m through and yet could be in a further 2 years of limbo while Newmont make up their mind.

If Newmont do explicitly commit to the $10m though (which probably opens the door to phase 2), I'd expect this to easily ten bag from here. I don't expect there to be any indication of that in 2019 though.

At the same time the share price is so low, if Newmont pulled the plug, I'd like to think someone, somewhere would buy Anza up for a few million, just as something to put in your pocket.

The problem is that any news from the company will be "We are waiting on Newmont to give the green light, it could be another 18 months, and there is a possibility they might never do it".

The fundamentals are also weakened because over the last 3 weeks Gold's fallen off quite considerably, so any prospect of a surprise upside at Loryser is diminished - although there is still some time for a sustained upswing.

I'm sure many here could go and buy 100k's worth of shares - but at the same time you may be fill up already. That's essentially my position - if anything I've got too much here already, and I don't really want to wind up with say 1% of this company, and certainly not if - as I fear is likely - its going to be in limbo for at least another 6 months, with people constantly drip-drip selling the price down.

The thing is the instant there is an RNS (or before if its leaked) stating that Newmont are committing to the first stage I believe this will very quickly rocket back to 10p, 13p, 18p whatever from whatever low it gets down to. While I'm sure someone will be quick to post how they got in at one second past 8 AM with the lowest price, most people won't manage it.

Nothing much has changed here. Unfortunately Newmont are in control - and they can make this a 2 year project, or a 12 year project. What would be nice is for an RNS stating they are definitely doing the Phase 1 earn in, spending at least $10m over the next 3-4 years and giving OMI $2m in 18 months.

The unexpected windfall is if gold surges to 1400-1450, the Uruguayan assets become worth a significant amount, and they can be sold, pay off the creditors and then there is either a windfall for shareholders, or money to speculate elsewhere. If gold surges Newmont might also want to speed this up.

Not to be negative - but I imagine the share issue is low because the amount of money they need to raise is low.

I think I read somewhere (could be wrong) that debt was about $1.9million?

I don't know if the plan is to try and sell the operations in Uruguay as a going concern - or just to sell/scrap equipment - but if gold were to move towards $1400+ in the next 2 years this might start to represent a significant amount of money.

Anyway right now this is rising and falling on pure sentiment. It could bounce dramatically tomorrow and then fall away the day after. An RNS showing more gold - or that NT have committed to the next phase - is when it will have legs.

Not convinced ramping or de-ramping on a forum when there is almost no market interest makes much sense.
There are more exciting places to go.
This is just about waiting. If Anza comes off the share will 10 bag and more. If Anza doesn't come off the company may be bust.

Uruguay is probably the more interesting thing in the short run - and unfortunately the outcome remains something of a mystery to me and I suspect the wider market.

At one level I didn't think they had that much debt ($1.9m or so). So if they could somehow get a moratorium on the interest and keep the asset there could be upside if gold were to head back up towards $1350-1400. Unfortunately the gold price continues be fickle (its sliding as I type) and while I can see the fundamentals point to a recovery, I have been disappointed before. I'm not sure who would lend under the current circumstances.

At the same time if they could sell the asset there could be upside too. But I am not sure who would buy it, as its a relatively niche operation and its hard to see how someone could make it operate at a significantly cheaper price than OMI.

The wildcard upside would be the Uruguayan government coming up with the leases to open up Veta A - but you would still need the money to dig and enviromentalists seem to be against it.