I wouldn't expect much at Uruguay.
The potential upside argument is that the mines there are being closed down because while there is gold at the site, it was uneconomic to extract it. The all in sustaining cost (AISC) was about $1340-1350, while gold was selling for just $1250. In theory at least, if gold were to take a leg up, and hold around the £1400-1450 range - never mind jumping to $1550 as certain excitable commentators claim could happen by the end of the year, that mine would theoretically be commercially viable again.
Unfortunately this has come too late. As per the April report, they are covering the tailing dam with gravel and removing the water. The equipment is in the process of being sold. This will raise funds to close the mine responsibly and pay of debts.
So the thin hope would be that if gold were to get to and stabilise at around $1450~, they could either reverse this process and open the mine again, or - perhaps more likely given the financial situation - someone else might bid a reasonable sum to get access to the territory and all related equipment. There was for example talk of digging the underground mine at VETA A, which should be more efficient, although potentially environmentally sensitive. If gold was suddenly very profitable, it might be possible to find investment (and, cynically, sufficient tax revenue to grease any permits) to make that possible.
This is however pure speculation, with no indication from the board they are exploring this option rather than just closing the mine, so shouldn't be factored into people's investment plans.
The £5k buy at 15.38 was mine.
Trying to buy more but as of the last 10~ minutes they can't seem to find any.
Still a bit concerned this is a strange pump and dump, but at the same time, gold has gone above $1400. $1450 was my mark for Loryser potentially recouping some business value (depending on what stage that sale is going through).
I'm a bit over 8p. With hindsight if I knew this would end up here I wouldn't have brought so many. Could average down to say 5-5.50, but don't really want even more shares.
Unfortunately... I don't see anything changing in the short run. Newmont can take this very slowly. They probably don't even have to make a decision on spending $10m for another 18-24 months. I am a bit concerned what will happen to OMI in 18 months time when they get the final $0.5m through and yet could be in a further 2 years of limbo while Newmont make up their mind.
If Newmont do explicitly commit to the $10m though (which probably opens the door to phase 2), I'd expect this to easily ten bag from here. I don't expect there to be any indication of that in 2019 though.
At the same time the share price is so low, if Newmont pulled the plug, I'd like to think someone, somewhere would buy Anza up for a few million, just as something to put in your pocket.
The problem is that any news from the company will be "We are waiting on Newmont to give the green light, it could be another 18 months, and there is a possibility they might never do it".
The fundamentals are also weakened because over the last 3 weeks Gold's fallen off quite considerably, so any prospect of a surprise upside at Loryser is diminished - although there is still some time for a sustained upswing.
I'm sure many here could go and buy 100k's worth of shares - but at the same time you may be fill up already. That's essentially my position - if anything I've got too much here already, and I don't really want to wind up with say 1% of this company, and certainly not if - as I fear is likely - its going to be in limbo for at least another 6 months, with people constantly drip-drip selling the price down.
The thing is the instant there is an RNS (or before if its leaked) stating that Newmont are committing to the first stage I believe this will very quickly rocket back to 10p, 13p, 18p whatever from whatever low it gets down to. While I'm sure someone will be quick to post how they got in at one second past 8 AM with the lowest price, most people won't manage it.
Nothing much has changed here. Unfortunately Newmont are in control - and they can make this a 2 year project, or a 12 year project. What would be nice is for an RNS stating they are definitely doing the Phase 1 earn in, spending at least $10m over the next 3-4 years and giving OMI $2m in 18 months.
The unexpected windfall is if gold surges to 1400-1450, the Uruguayan assets become worth a significant amount, and they can be sold, pay off the creditors and then there is either a windfall for shareholders, or money to speculate elsewhere. If gold surges Newmont might also want to speed this up.
Not to be negative - but I imagine the share issue is low because the amount of money they need to raise is low.
I think I read somewhere (could be wrong) that debt was about $1.9million?
I don't know if the plan is to try and sell the operations in Uruguay as a going concern - or just to sell/scrap equipment - but if gold were to move towards $1400+ in the next 2 years this might start to represent a significant amount of money.
Anyway right now this is rising and falling on pure sentiment. It could bounce dramatically tomorrow and then fall away the day after. An RNS showing more gold - or that NT have committed to the next phase - is when it will have legs.
Not convinced ramping or de-ramping on a forum when there is almost no market interest makes much sense.
There are more exciting places to go.
This is just about waiting. If Anza comes off the share will 10 bag and more. If Anza doesn't come off the company may be bust.
Uruguay is probably the more interesting thing in the short run - and unfortunately the outcome remains something of a mystery to me and I suspect the wider market.
At one level I didn't think they had that much debt ($1.9m or so). So if they could somehow get a moratorium on the interest and keep the asset there could be upside if gold were to head back up towards $1350-1400. Unfortunately the gold price continues be fickle (its sliding as I type) and while I can see the fundamentals point to a recovery, I have been disappointed before. I'm not sure who would lend under the current circumstances.
At the same time if they could sell the asset there could be upside too. But I am not sure who would buy it, as its a relatively niche operation and its hard to see how someone could make it operate at a significantly cheaper price than OMI.
The wildcard upside would be the Uruguayan government coming up with the leases to open up Veta A - but you would still need the money to dig and enviromentalists seem to be against it.
News is all fairly predictable.
Really my concern - and I guess we won't know until the next monthly update - is cash burn. $2m might last the team if they are down below 20, possibly 15 people - but it isn't that much. OMI should be able to survive on NM's stipend for the years to come - but it will leave relatively little for any exploring.
Guess its hoping NM pick up the pace - which is probably dependent on their own reserves and the gold price.
Sometimes its easier to be patient when you are in the black.
Its a tiny increase really - but if this was floating around 7.5-8 (or better still around 9-10) I'd feel a lot happier even though it wouldn't prompt me to take any different actions.
I'd have thought because the company essentially is "Anza".
If things in Uruguay were still ticking over the company could be more patient - but really they should be wanting to show the market that they have an asset which is hopefully worth hundreds of millions (or billions or whatever).
This would hopefully put a rocket under the share price - but would also facilitate raising any money which might (re: will) be needed on the way (regardless of whether or not Newmont are willing to fully fund this).
It would give OMI more power in that relationship. I mean its not as if I'd be terribly upset if Newmont were to buy the company out for say 30p/share - but obviously I'd prefer 300.
Not sure if this is the done thing - but the 3k and 5k buys around 8.27/8.33 were mine.
Thought about buying another 7k - but blanched at being offered 6.25 and thought we might see a sell into the rise. Feel a bit silly now - but at the same time I probably have too much in this share anyway.
What's happened is that there has been relatively little buying pressure, and this has resulted in someone (or various people) selling around 100-200k shares each morning and this results in the share price falling 5-10%.
If you wanted a technical response I'd say its that people are concerned about cash burn - or what the fallout will be in Uruguay - and the fact Anza is weeks away from reporting anything.
Really though I think its just sentiment. This is likely to drift and drift - and then three bag in an afternoon. Or ten bag on news.
Probably the Chinese.
If China stops buying US Treasuries their currency will quickly appreciate. Ditto if they back it to gold when its on the rise (if it is). That is going to wreck an export-orientated economy. The Chinese government can't handle a proper recession when its credit was almost all expended bailing themselves out of the last one.
Really while its been a perennial dream of the goldbugs the likelyhood of a gold backed cryptocurrency taking on the dollar is incredibly low. It doesn't serve a strategic purpose.
The issue is people buying in thinking this was going to go to 12, 18, 80-100p by Christmas are now thinking "oh wait, might not happen" and selling up. At the same time buying pressure is very weak. (With respect to those posting here that they have bought in, you seem like the only ones).
While its sobering, there were no surprises in the last RNS. Omi is now almost a pure Anza play - unless the gold price rockets to a minimum of 1350, possibly 1400 by December in which case Uruguay might be worth something.
The project is now effectively in Newmont's hands. What shareholders should want is either
A) More drill results showing high concentrations of gold over a wide area.
B) Most importantly - that Newmont are going ahead with the Phase 1 earn in. While it might not happen, that probably should arguably double Omi's share price from this level at least and potentially get the ball rolling.
The danger for shareholders (and especially get rich quick types) is that Newmont will sit on this for 2 years, letting Omi burn through cash by just existing.
I said before that blaming MMs is a bad road to go down - but there is something annoying in the price barely moving at people buying £40k's worth - but then collapsing 10% because some other people want to offload £20k.
If gold prices rise to $1400+ then plenty of gold shares will jump. Not sure on the cap - but I think OMI was about 80p/share when gold was over $1800.
Right now though Omi is basically Anza and a bunch of borderline worthless assets (at $1200/oz).
So to get a figure of "Omi is worth $100m" Anza would need to be worth about $500m, since Newmont would get 80% of it.
And it might be - but it won't be worth that based on getting any gold out of the ground next week, next month, or even next year.
But then people look at Solg and not unreasonably say "why couldn't it happen here" (imo Solg is considerably overvalued except as a potential takeover target, but what do I know.)
In the short run another excellent drilling results RNS or a statement from Newmont that they are green lighting phase 1 investments are probably what we are looking for.