Member Info for Yelacoirii

While it leads you to conspiracies, I feel the MMs are kind of messing about.

At least on II they won't let me buy more than about £1000 worth of shares, but they would be happy to take £10k's worth off my hands.

Never really understood what that means. I guess they could be trying to fill a large order.

Really don't like the fact they've somehow managed to eat $1.5m (give or take) in 7 months. The corporate/admin cost of this company seems to be bloated out of all proportion to what it actually does.

But I've got so many I'm basically at the ride or die stage. Hopefully this is the bottom, and a drilling campaign+possible MRE can put a rocket under the share price.

Barring Omi finding some other sugar daddy/somehow allowing the Majors on revised terms for another bite of the cherry, there's going to have to be another raise, but how much - and how much impact it meaningfully has on the share price is unclear.

I mean say they want to raise £500k at 2p/share (In practice it will all be in $, but go with it). That's 25m new shares. Maybe a bit more after fees etc. Taking the total shares from 205m to 230m. Sure, you've been diluted by 12% or something. Not great. But what's that on today's share price of 2.6. So down to 2.3?

Maybe I'm optimistic - but I think this could bounce back up to 4-6p on even half way sensible news. Even if you figure some dilution should knock off 50p, that's still potentially double from here. And if there's actually a drilling campaign to prove up one of the targets, potentially moving towards 8-10. Its a fair point that £500k isn't going to get very far. Its probably far too hopeful to think that would prove up a Pepas or Apta etc. But it might at least allow for a start - and if they could hit some gold like they were years ago, the market might well be willing to fund the next holes at a significantly higher price.

Will you be able to get in "on the day" at 2p? Maybe. But if all this is wrapped up together in a single communication the market might not let you.

I guess my concern is that they've hit some insurmountable legal snag and this is why 5.5~ months (RNS 25th March 2024) after the deal being announced (and longer still since Brad floated it as an ambition) we seem no further forward. I think ditching the monthly "not now, but its close" RNSs is probably sensible as they just flagged failure. But we are kind of drifting.

BT you've argued this line for years - but its clear OMI don't think they have anything like the rights you do.

As far as I can see the majors met the first part of the deal (and this is the position Omi have always stated). That means they are entitled to own 50%. Maybe the deal should have said that if they stopped at this point they leave with nothing - but it didn't. (Indeed, if that was the case, why have the 3 staging points at all, if you think they weren't actually getting anything until meeting the final stage?)

Buying it back would seem the only way Omi can get 100% ownership again. The negative side is whether there actually are "complications", or this is the majors just messing us about as arguably they've done for the past 2 years. But the idea Brad can just tell them to F-off seems optimistic at best.

Will this multibag up to say 15p/20p/the moon? I don't know - but to my mind that has to be the hope, otherwise why bother being here?

"My strategy is to get into a fairly illiquid stock a little under 4, and hope to sell a little over 5."

I guess there's nothing wrong with that - and if you've had the discipline, I think you've had a couple of opportunities already this year. But I feel there would be less risky and more rewarding markets out there if that's the extent of your ambitions.

Its not a bad RNS, the main lament is that its all too slow.

I mean TL/DR. They thought there was gold when they first looked. After two years of surveying, they are now even more confident there is gold. That's good and all - but its not going to have much value until they stick a drill in the ground and prove it.

I'm reasonably optimistic, but not going to buy any more until pen touches paper.

If the share price were to wander north before then this may be a mistake, but it feels this is probably the level until it does.

I think its an important lesson that a profit is a profit, and sometimes the right course is to just run taking as much as you can. Clearly the "right way" to trade this was selling out at 40/30/20p etc, and then re-buying whatever sized holding you want in the low 2s. But I never thought it would fall that much through the process.

Now I think we are at something of a bottom - and the question is how much it might go up by. There are possible pitfalls, but this share can move when it wants. But do you want to cash out at 5, 10, 20, 40? Thats the trick of it.

Or you can be a long term holder, and hope that one day this will be bought out for a massive amount of money. I can't see it ever becoming a significant producer (again) and being in a position to pay out dividends.

I'm not sure if OMI is a dog - but I do think its not the best share for day traders. Sure, there are big swings - but it isn't that liquid.

Its why I think claims that we often see on forums to the tune of [I got the lowest price of the day] and [I sold at the highest price of the day] are kind of... Walter Mitty trading? If you managed it that often, why are you not a millionaire? Why are you instead on the LSE forums every day, messing about in the AIM?

Its probably not good for my own long term holding, but I have no idea where the short term price is going. I'd like to think once 100% ownership is confirmed, this will go for a walk up to 10p. Maybe even 15p. But this isn't really based on anything but hope. It could even be a signal for hot money to sell out - but I'd hope the prospect of drilling would guard against that.

I think the graphic does do a good job of explaining why Brad felt Agnico were insisting on digging in the wrong place.

So basically if you take figure A, he thinks they should have drilled perpendicularly through the known Gold location. Instead they drilled parallel to it, some distance away, to see if this was a monster deposit, and consequently completely missed.

For the uninitiated, how does the 4.43 wall "work"?

My simplistic reading is that anyone who bought a 2.95p share has the option to also buy another share at 4.425p?

I guess another 8.25%~ dilution isn't great for existing holders. But it would give Omi another £750k to play with. Not a negligible sum, if the company's value were at about £10m. You'd like to think £1m would fund a good throw at Pepas.

Drills poised?

I'd probably save the full on ramping until the agreements are actually signed - but I don't think you can say we know nothing more than we did. Admittedly it probably always had to be thus, as Omi has no money, but getting Anza back with no upfront cost is a great achievement. I think the current share price now looks rather low.

I'd like to know whether the $15m starts kicking in at 1 oz production (in which case its a bit of a hurdle) - or is at more meaningful levels of output, at which point it probably won't matter that much. But in either case this is years away - and I suspect Omi would have been bought out by that point.

At least as of this morning, I don't think I can fault Brad.

As a strategy, does tilting at Pepas make sense? Hopefully, if they don't miss. I think its something Omi can do to demonstrate value while hopefully hunting for a long term partner that has the $millions necessary to develop the whole site.

Maybe I'm just a bad gold bug, but I'm not sure I see any of these exciting gold valuations.

You can certainly have supply/demand and mania driven spikes. But over a medium to long term, commodity prices tend towards being a function of production. AISCs have risen - and if interest rates were to stay up will rise further. But if the cost of getting gold was say $1500, and the realised price was $3000 (never mind $5000, $10k etc) then gold mining would be outrageously profitable, and there would be a massive increase of investment into the sector. This would take time to come online, but soon there would be a flood of gold and the price would rather quickly be brought back down to something normal.

You can, I guess, argue it round the other way. A lot of recent investments have had difficulties. Arguably they need better returns if they are to go ahead. (This feels a bit cart before the horse, but if its raising the idea of a future shortage/squeeze can happen.)

You can also I think correctly point at the level of debts around the world. These will probably have to be inflated away. It will certainly be easier to do that than explain to voting public that more of your cash is going to pay creditors rather than hospitals, schools, tax cuts etc. I think the issue is though that there is a fundamental difference between countries running at a slightly higher average level of inflation (say 3-5% rather than 2%) and some hyperinflation scenario where the dollar is worthless, buy bitcoin/gold bars for the coming Mad Max apocalypse etc.

Anyway, Pens Poised and Pepas awaits.

Valuations include a lot of hope value which is hard to measure properly.

It didn't turn out that way - but the Majors were committed to putting $30m into Anza, and completing feasibility studies, presumably ahead of buying Omi out. It seems like you'd put some sort of multiple on that investment. 40p was probably the market getting ahead of itself - but Omi had to rise sharply from its few million valuation.

I mean CNR is an interesting subject - but lets be honest, if they ever complete their sale, and they were to get +/- the current share price, people would be kind of upset. Will they be disappointed? I think Seingred has said he's hoping for double. Some are hoping for much more.

Omi doesn't have the resources - and will never have the resources - to bring Anza to production. So they'll have to cut someone much bigger in, no matter how sparling the results. Unfortunately until that's clear, the market is likely to be negative.

The directors got $594k year ending 2022, $578k year ending 2023, and okay, we aren't quite at the end of 2024, but I think we can assume it will be higher based on the quarterly figures we've seen. So by the end of May it's going to be around $1.8m for the 3 years.

Yes this isn't all Brad - there's a whole menagerie of them. But this is not peanuts given where the company is.

In the past 3 years the directors have extracted nearly $2 million from this company (without getting into stock options etc). I think they have been more than amply supported.

I feel there should be some rule that links how bad a share is doing versus how much people start thinking the price is the result of a few posters.

As I think Chicken said - from a neutral position, this share price is low. Sure it could go lower, but it wouldn't take much to hit the heady heights of 4-5p. If you are disciplined, you could therefore make a reasonable trading profit. Whether you want to be doing this in AIM shares is however a reasonable question. If you already have a lot of shares, whether you can average down enough to potentially flee the building at 5p depends on where you are standing.

On the fundamentals, well, my lack of faith in the board is the killer there really. I'd love to believe Brad and co are carefully getting everything ready. I.E. 100% Anza back and new sugar daddy on board to fund it (even if at worse terms). Instead I think we are going to get it back (with its $500k-700k cost just to do care and maintenance), they'll say they are in conversation with various parties - but they need to stay in radio silence for 6-18 months while it happens. They'd like to spend a million on Pepas (its a free hit/walk up/easy) - but the money is already rushing out the door. Dogs will continue to eat the homework on the 3 other projects - which notionally also require millions over the next few years etc.

As someone else who's ridden it up and ridden it down, my frustration is with Brad's strategy.

I mean I hope they prove me wrong. Release some data from Argentina, Brazil and Nigeria to indicate these are worth anything to anyone. But instead we get told release is imminent and then woops, its nearly a year later and a dog has eaten all our lab results. I mean the latest message was "oh, we'll be showing some leg for PDAC". Well that starts on Sunday. Has there been any news? No. Will there be a major release on Monday? I doubt it.

I mean more fool me if they hit the greatest find in one of these places. But it feels like the company would be in a far stronger position if Brad had been told to just play golf the last 2 years. We'd have millions of dollars more in the bank and be in a far stronger position on finding another partner for Anza. Instead we are going to instantly find ourselves with commitments of about $1.5m, i.e. most of our current cash pile, and theoretically more spending needed in 3 other countries.

I think if you've never tried to renegotiate a deal, you've probably not been in business for very long.

The original Omi deal was very good - and caused the share price to rocket accordingly. Unfortunately Omi will have to negotiate another agreement which is unlikely to be as good (although it doesn't have to be to lift the share price from this dismal position). There's got to be a non-zero chance that ends up being with Agnico.

6% is a lot as a percentage, but I'm afraid £30k isn't really a lot for doing this sort of work.

The issue is doing all this to raise a relatively tiny sum.