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I think its a reasonable debate.

I mean they could get the drilling team in and over 3-6 months say prove up an additional resource of say 50k oz. Which would be nice to have, but if Pepas is moving towards being a mine that will operate for 10 years, there's plenty of time to develop Pepas West.

Ultimately more gold is nice to have - but 50k oz they might get to some time in the 2030s probably isn't moving the dial that much even if it might be another $100m or something down the line.

From Omi's perspective it might be better to look for Pepas South East, Pepas North West, Pepas etc.

Layman's language, not a geologist etc, but Brad believes that when the gold came up to the surface, its been scattered over the area in lumps. Pepas is a decent sized chunk - and it was expected there would be smaller ones like Pepas West to be found. But its possible there's also a bigger main chunk of say 0.5-1m oz out there (or more, who knows). And if they can find it, and like Pepas its reasonably easy to access and mine, then all these debates about whether its "company making" can be closed.

It just depends on how meaningful a few forum rampers/derampers are.

Omi's market cap and relative liquidity probably limits it. When the company was a 10th of the value, a few people chucking £1000 either way made the market. Not really sure it is these days. Now if everyone was chucking in £20k maybe that's different.

Back of the envelope figures.

Gold Price $5k. Might be too high.

AISC: $1500. Might be too low.

Total oz: 220,000. (You'd expect them to find more.)

Revenue: $1.1 billion.

Costs: $330m.

Gross Profit: $770m.

Taxes, royalties etc. Assume 25%. Total net profit: $575m

Exchange rate at 1.37 dollars to £. £420m.

NPV to account for 10-12 years. Depends on your discount rate, but I'd guess about £180m.

You'd then discount to this because the mine isn't there producing gold as expected, but is currently years away. Very subjective. Anywhere from maybe £50-100m. Which isn't too far from where we are.

I think the story that may get lost in all this though is that Pepas is still special. It is in scope for Omi to build it and profit from. If the company was earning £40m a year there's massive scope for exploration and project development. Never say never I guess - but while Brad can chase his white whale, these will never be mined by Omi. I think even APTA is fundamentally out of scope. The upfront cost will be too high, so you'd have to sell the project to someone, potentially at a significant discount. You'd hope perhaps we are heading towards a bull market with lots of M&A, but its not guaranteed.

My concern is that bringing this to production is going to be quite slow and boring. Brad has run off to Brazil and Nigeria when previously bored. In that case though he had nothing to do with Newmont and Agnico controlling things. They need to get this through permitting and then start looking for Pepas II, III, IV etc. Or we can hope to find the motherlode in Argentina and get bought out.

I think you can argue Omi should be higher because we seem to be seeing a general re-rate across the sector.

A ten bag in 18 months isn't bad by any measure. But going up 3 fold since the summer? A lot of mining shares have managed that. Many of which - imo - have much weaker assets and prospects than Omi, and boards/directors which can I think quite accurately be described as a shambles.

Kind of mixed views.

Big holder, reasonably confident in Omi - but £500 million for a company with no revenue feels a bit crazy. £100m is quite a lot.

At the same time however if they can keep making progress to Pepas, and that looks like an asset that could be producing $50-100m a year profit for tax, then £100m for the company is way too low. We are probably 2-3 years away on that score, but I don't quite know when the market would adjust. Omi would have the money to go nuts all over its land holdings.

Colombian politics may continue to be an issue, but with all these assets I think someone is bound to make an offer at some point. May be a bad comparison as Solg was a lot bigger and further along - but something similar could happen.

I think the Gold Miners share price only makes sense if the market collectively thinks Gold is going back to $3250~ or so.

Which is certainly possible - but feels like you might wait a bit. If gold could stabilise at $3800 to $4k then current prices are bonkers low.

(My cynical view is that if the gold price did have that collapse, gold miners would go even lower. But in that case we might get the rather silly scenario where the miners are worth less at $3250~ than they were at $2500.)

If Omi can get Pepas to resource and get mining, the prospects far exceed the current market price. Its 2-3 years away, but every step forward should hopefully be recognised in the share price.

Not convinced there are meaningful shorts.

Gold has had a significant pull back, and people are now wondering if there will be some massive pullback.

I think the market reaction is a bit overdone because share prices of gold stocks no way reflect $4k an oz. But equally you've got various parties (Bank of England, some big American banks) shouting "YOU SHOULD PANIC" - and ruthless you are unlikely to lose by playing their game. So the miners are being hit. Its a trading game - I'd have more shares if I'd sold a chunk at 29p and now bought back at 22p.

But as far as I can tell, Gold could drop all the way back to $3k/oz - and Pepas would still be worth multiple times Omi's market cap today.

Digging up Pepas isn't going to be free so you'd need to cut something off there.

Being honest I didn't think it was the best presentation. I like the steady flow of communication - but there's a degree to which its only worth talking to the market if there's something worth saying. Maybe my take away was wrong but what I got was:

1. Pepas is good and they are maybe - maybe - starting to think of ways to mine this earlier than previously thought. Which given Brad's previously suggested there wouldn't be a mine until he was long gone isn't really that compelling. The market can't really interpret "we are thinking". If he'd said "we've started reaching out to some third parties - and there's serious interest from 2-3" then that would be much more interesting.

2. Could bring Apta to resource, but not going to bother at the moment. Would cost around $60-70k, which okay isn't nothing but isn't exactly breaking the bank. Think they need to do some more work to ensure they get a "good resource". Concern the market will treat any resource as the end of finding more gold. Could be true, not really sure it would be given the other prospects.

3. The south. There might be something good here, but they don't know and not sure when we'll know.

4. Argentina. Planning to drill in the second half of this year. I guess that's good - but its not going to set the markets on fire until the drill is actually going into the ground.

I continue to hold lots and am positive on Omi's long term value. But if you were a short term trader, I'm not sure this presentation indicated many value creating events in the next few weeks.

I think its the road to madness, but cynically trying this morning I can't seem to buy any volume as of 11 AM. I don't know if that's because the £5k~ buy above has mopped up the liquidity, but its a bit annoying.

I'm very confident in Omi over the medium term.

In the extreme short term its just hard to know whether this is the bottom - or in the next few days this will briefly test 10p again, perhaps for the final time.

Yeah. Usually think its bad to wish these things. But if sellers could get this down to about 9.5p for next Monday that would be great.

I don't really mind them raising money - as yes, hopefully it means they'll drill more prospects and get good results.

I guess the slightly negative aspect is that if they'd waited about 3 weeks I could have bought a chunk at 9.5p in an ISA. But I guess we'll see what the share price is like then.

I think its how people get lured in by enthusiasm.

Me on Friday: "This is jumping too fast, there's bound to be a retrace to go through the 10-12p range properly."

Me on Monday: "14p opener, Omi is the greatest company in the world, next stop the moon."

The board today: "The fix is in, panic."

I don't think its surprising that there's a round of profit taking. Hopefully it consolidates and we move back up.

I don't disagree that markets can be irrational. They can certainly move very quickly.

I mean people make a lot of the 2020 spike (not unreasonably). But I remember 2018 when the share price jumped from something like 1-1.5p to an in-day high of 10p. When Omi wants to move it certainly can.

There's a tendency to think the current share price represents the market's value based on all known information. Could this drift up to 20p on nothing more than "we'll stick a drill in Pepas 2?" Maybe. It wouldn't be unheard of on the AIM. But I'd probably only believe it when it happens.

I wouldn't be married to CNR - but it is a fair example of value. 2.4ish million oz, half open pit, half underground, sale of £67.5m. Some questions on the selling process, I think maybe they could have got more - but then they are at least getting things over the line. But then if Omi can prove up 2.4m oz (and I think there's that at least in Pepas+Apta), I think you'd back them to find a lot more oz buried under their extensive land holdings. So they'd probably be worth quite a bit more. But then there were various points last year you could have bought CNR in the lowish 20s, market cap around the mid-£40m.

I also agree with those saying the sector is in a terrible space (as is the AIM generally) and a change in sentiment could drive a general rise. It does seem weird that the gold price has exploded (I cynically never agreed with those touting $3k oz either but here we are) but sentiment for the small caps at least hasn't really changed. If anything you can make an argument they should be more geared to that price.

I'd be surprised if Omi surged to 40p without a route to market (which Newmont provided last time). £100m market cap feels like a bit of a barrier for what, as Brad keeps reminding us, is a small company with only a handful of geos.

With that said, if they can move Apta and Pepas towards a proven resource of 2~ million oz between them, with - importantly - plenty more to be found, then that starts looking very cheap. If they hit anything in Argentina then things could explode.

Maybe if the MMs let it go, but not sure traders like to rush in just before the weekend.

Tbh while I love this newsflow, I'm not sure releasing this stuff on Friday is the best. Feels like this could have waited until Monday and thereby start that week off with a bang.

Its probably getting into the weeds - as the real story is the Pepas is shaping up to be a real find, that should in turn boost Omi's share price. But still.

Yeah. Some people are going to bag trading profits. Some long term traders may finally sell up.

But these are excellent results - and further evidence Omi is considerably undervalued.

I think if you want the glass half empty argument, its that drilling Pepas is unlikely to be a trigger event for shareholder value.

Sure finding more gold would be a good thing. Its certainly better if the drills hit rather than miss. Notionally at least I agree the company should be worth more and that's why I'm still invested. I'd argue the price is so low that it could double on barely any change in sentiment. (But with certain caveats that are possibly stopping it happening.)

Unfortunately, without getting a new major on board, its very hard to see how Omi meaningfully proceeds with their holdings. They can keep doing small raises - but when half to three quarters of that is just going to pay Brad and co, its not really moving the company forward. Its also weighing on that market sentiment. To be mean - although its common enough on the AIM, you can argue the board see the company as facilitating their pay cheques, rather than being their baby. Hence why, despite everything that's happened over the last few years, there's been seemingly no effort to cut costs to the bone.

As far as I understand it, the strategy is to try and prove up Apta and Pepas, and this will act to attract in a partner on a much better basis than would be the case without proving them up. That sounds reasonable. Maybe they'll stick a pin in Argentina and get incredibly lucky (as, arguably, they were in Anza.)

But it feels like you are waiting on wider market conditions. Omi isn't I think unique for feeling kind of stuck and undervalued - and it feels like there should be much more M&A going on across the mining sector than there is. Maybe that's been undermined by the consolidation of all the majors in recent years, but it should happen at some point.

Unfortunately that's all jam tommorow stuff. Roll on 2026.

I guess the negative side of this forum is just that a lot of us have been here too long. I'm underwater, but due to averaging out, not by what I consider a crazy amount. (I'd be a lot happier of the share price was 5p though). If someone would come along and say "nice business, I'll give you 10p a share for it" - I think it would be daylight robbery, but I'd probably be happy with the profit, and to be free. Others with averages around 20p maybe not so much.

Buy the rumour sell the news is sort of traditional.

It prompts certain posters to come sprinting in posting comparisons - but I think Omi is so cheap at this level its getting a bit silly. I'm not talking about skyrocketing - but the idea that Omi couldn't be worth £10-15 million, i.e. double from here, doesn't seem that crazy. Double again and its still not much. Long term financing is a concern but just feels like, even if you had no confidence in Brad, you'd think someone would eventually come in and make them an offer they can't refuse.

I guess if you think there isn't actually gold in them thar hills its all worthless - but then why are you here?

I think the bigger issue is how bombed out the AIM is starting to become in general. If for example Reeves decides AIM shares shouldn't be exempt from inheritance tax tommorow there could be another general retreat.

I don't think the board are ever going to invest. For some that's a red flag but it doesn't hugely bother me. I mean how much would meaningfully move the dial to make me think they were serious? £1k? £10k? £100k? I guess some token chipping in every 6 months might help create some confidence.

The cynical view of "we know stuff" is "yeah, and most of its bad."

The point about needing more raises is serious, even if sadly inevitable. To a degree I don't think its surprising Brad wants to see how far the market will carry him without needing a JV partner. But equally it hangs over the share price. I mean us poor punters don't get the option - but why would you buy shares at 3p if you know Brad's going round selling them for 2.5p, 2p, whatever he needs in a couple of months time? Like others I can keep dragging my average down - but at some point it gets silly.

I'd like to think there would be a turn of sentiment here if they can proceed as outlined. Hit some gold in Pepas. Take Apta to resource. Usual argument for what a nominal million or so oz is worth in the ground - but I think its got to be worth a lot more than £7m. Especially given the prospects of several more. Columbia elections are about 18 months away which might change big company attitude. I'm a bit suspect on Gold Bull Runs ($5k, 10k next year!! etc) - but if that were to keep pushing up to $3k? Well, its got to help eventually - even if there won't be any gold out of Anza until the late 2030s at best.

Really though Omi - and dare I say this forum - needs some new blood. There's not much point just preaching to the existing Omi Bulls and Omi Bear's, whose own positions have brought the share price to where it is.

A sequence of positive newsflow - as opposed to basically nothing for the last couple of years - might do that.

Also Nigerian Lithium remains a complete waste of time, and the sooner they ditch it the better.