Member Info for Xhita

HSBC has a loose grip on reality.

Lots of forces at play. This year though they don't hold the Q4 update information.

We'll still see an attempt to tamper with the natural response to a fantastic year but ultimately they have less cards to play this year.

Dodgepot. Zero chance of £250m from the holiday business. £185m is realistic.

Guidance was raised from 170-180m and at that point Q4 was in progress.

I hope that you are all much better at this than me.

It would be a shame if a massive profit increase from £455m to £605m was met with disappointment.

When you look at turnover and margin for Q4 adding around £2 to the price of a seat makes a massive disproportionate result on the profit Around 38m seats will have been flown in Q4.

Like every player HSBC has an agenda.

Max_run £864m profit in Q4 would be absolutely incredible. It's not impossible.

I would like to be wrong at £605m for the year.

Loser the first 3 quarters produced a £114m loss. A substantial reduction in the loss of the previous year. Only Q4 matters. I think that H2 will get close to £1bn profit.

£605m is where my maths lands us but it is not ridiculous to think that £705m could easily happen. After all a couple of pounds extra on each flight and that's enough.

The holiday product is absolutely key to margins. If they make £5 a seat and £50 a holiday clearly we need more holidays. They are really focusing on the holiday product with the new routes.

Margins cannot be healthy throughout the whole year but certainly the average can be very worthwhile given the volume

Thumper I would take that with a big smile.

£535m would reflect a poor Q4. No evidence of that in fact as far as demand goes it was exceptionally high.

What's extremely encouraging is the prices for easter and Whitsun. 6 months ahead of time most seats are sold. It's only one week but it's a huge cash booster.

£455-710m is a racy expectation. They were £94m up going into Q4. That sets the minimum at £549m if Q4 was flat.

I think that they exceeded Q4 23 by £56m as Q4 23 was a record summer.

I think that £605m may be exceeded substantially.

There is a real chance that Q4 could be outperform by a substantial amount simply because the volume and variables involved, an extra £5 a flight average makes a massive difference.

What we don't know is how many losing days they build into their model. It's very likely that whatever that number is that this year has been well below average.

£700m is not a crazy number but I set my sights on £605m as a realistic target a long time ago and I see no reason not to hit that.

£1bn profit before tax is at least 2 years away. I am hoping for £605m before tax.

I hope that the holiday business is responsible for £185m of that.

Q1 will be mixed. I am seeing Easter and whitsun prices ahead of last year and most of the capacity sold on North South holiday routes.

We are marking up 5-12% on last year a have strong bookings already ahead of this year which will be a record year for us on occupancy and profit.

School holidays time you can travel but expect to pay £300 each way and £100 a night

Currently you can join for 90 days out of 180. Maybe that should have gone on the side of the bus.

Flying to Luton. I doubt it but Luton has a huge catchment. I wouldn't go anywhere in the UK.

Harsh but who knows Monday morning the wind could be blowing from the East and it opens down. It's just ebb and flow.

In the famous words of Jim Bowen..........

Now lets have a look at what you could have won......

Today???

You believe that the rise is done for today.

Sums up well what is wrong with the UK stock exchange.

Nickel and dime.

It's up today for the same reason it was down yesterday. Just ebb and flow.

Several plus days and we will get a run-up to the results which will be very positive.

I just hope that Q1 has gone well. A reducing loss Q1 is the goal.

Richie agreed. I have only seen them used for takeover before. We had several large OTC trades around the same time so I don't know the purpose of these.

We don't know of any significant votes looming so I don't see the point but I am sure that there is one.

A separate listing for the holiday business on a functional exchange would be very welcome. However I think that's maybe 2 years off.