Member Info for Xhita

Holiday business £190m. £10m above forecast from the company and £5m over my expectations. Suer performance. Record summer.

£960m H2 profit.

The job in hand is reducing Q1 losses and they look to have that in their sights

Slightly better than I thought.

Over £600m will be an excellent result in what is a massive growth period. Easyjet are delivering a growth strategy and numbers have to back up the actions. £720 profit in Q4 will be excellent.

Long Investor hardly surprising given the two year covid nonsense fiasco. Easyjet are hugely undervalued by this stock exchange.

The most interesting points from tomorrow will be.

The trajectory of the business growth. If they outstripped the market and by how much.

The final holiday business performance.

Q1 update on current trading environment.

Summer and Easter forward sales.

Hedging fuel and exchange.

Expectations for the holiday business that's targeting £250m profit in the near term.

Winter season update for the holiday business strategy.

The target for Q1 is breakeven. I don't think that is possible. Before the weather shock that's ripped through Iberia and many other places I would have said that it could be on this year. I think now that we'll see in the region of £80m loss Q1 to be released in January. This performance will be driven by the holiday business.

Q2 is the ultimate challenge, this year that will be driven by North African routes with massive holiday business appeal. If they can contain Q2 to a loss of £150m they will be in great shape for H2.

I reached £605m by extrapolation of last year's figures into Q4 then adding around 11% which is the +figure we have seen in the hotel sector. Then adding the extra holiday business minus that already disclosed.

Analysts have given opinion then most clarified it with stupid suggestions.

As far as I am aware there aren't any figures fyi the whole business just the holiday sector.

Positive outlook for FY24

o Expect FY24 capacity of c.100m seats

o Q4'24 RPS is expected to continue the trend of Q3'24

o easyJet holidays is now expected to deliver >£180m PBT (>48% profit growth YoY)

o Continue to expect H2 headline CPS ex fuel up low single digits YoY

o H2 fuel CPS expected to be flat YoY

There's a real Chance that the market expectation (and mine) can be substantially exceeded. Mine is just based on a continuation of the excess performance Q1-3.

Q4 however is a very different animal. I wouldn't be surprised by £700m I would just be very happy to be wrong.

I don't think that there's much the CEO can do about it.

The controlling factors are the algorithm for pricing which is generated by multiple factors.

We use a very basic version for pricing which is driven in part by actual flight price data. We can play with some parameters like risk and margin but if people don't book that changes quickly.

£630m is possible but largely it makes very little difference.

The message is the business is growing rapidly when others report modest or negative growth. We as shareholders need easyJet to disconnect from the other providers.

When ryanair or Wizz has failure that's opportunity for easyJet and currently the easyJet share price responds negatively.

That needs to change.

The key difference between the company updating the market and the market updating the market is easyJet can't be wrong.

I still think that £605m is likely but they could substantially over achieve given the lack of disruption events. Winning days at £9m a day profit in the high high season is quite visible. The invisible is how many zero or losing days they had built into the model. There were very few disruptions with compo beyond hotels and flights.

They have been doing this a long time but I suspect that summer 24 exceeded expectations.

The holiday business I see at £185m profit.

Max you have missed something. It's called Tax. Pretty hard to ignore in the UK

The other news items about the fine from Spain is nonsense. It's not abusive to implement their business model.

It's abusive for people to pay for something that they don't use.

How is it right to be charged for luggage if you don't have any.

The deal is very well known as nobody should be surprised. If anyone breaks the rules or thinks it doesn't apply to them well they pay the fine if they want to load their luggage.

Life is very simple.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some corporate action here, although I don't know what it may be. A second listing, a spin off on another market for the holiday business or something completely different. They made a decision not to release the Q4 update.

I think when money becomes tight, commercially it plays right into easyJet hands.

My research shows that people aren't cutting holidays, in fact some are taking more. What they are doing is cutting the length of their stay. easyJet facilitate this with multiple daily flights. The 14 days holiday is dead.

There's two reasons given. One is valid amongst the increasing shift worker base. They minimise leave used by customising holiday durations. The other reason is to save money.

I was given an interesting analogy by a guest in Spain. She said that she has 4 holidays a year instead of 2. They are 5 or 6 days. She said like a pizza where the first slice tastes the best she doesn't need 2 weeks to say she's been on holiday and choose to reduce the duration and increase the frequency.

easyJet win 8 flights instead of 4.

The holiday business projection will be based on bookings. The summer has very few last minute bookings because summer was sold out months earlier for the hotels. No hotel capacity no holiday bookings.

I think that they will exceed last guidance by £5m given that disruption was absolutely minimal.

£10m off from a multi billion turnover is hardly off is it. Error rate of what .01%

Why is £185m profit for the holiday business unlikely. The company told us on 30 June well into Q4 to expect £180m.

I think as it had already been lifted from £170m that they may well overshoot but not by much for sure.

Great to see a new route Gatwick to Sal.

This will be a huge earner as this is a easyJet holiday destination. No other reason to go as there's nothing there.

I actually thought this had already been announced publicly. Strong links to Portugal but a challenging hotel environment. Always struggle to achieve high occupancy......from April that all changes.

There are a sprinkling of Airbnb and private let's but 85% of visitors stay in hotels.

If easyjet achieved even 10% in hotels on their packages 3 X a week this is a real money maker.

Road warrior they certainly did feel a squeeze. How do you know what they would have done without easyjet holidays in the market. I can tell you that I regularly speak to people who have converted from Jet2. It doesn't squeeze the volume of bookings in the summer just the price.

easyJet hold all the cards for the holiday market. Multiple daily flights, complete flexibility, massive available capacity, no allocation of accomodation to fill a super lean model. Over the winter when the customer base is lean the difference will show.

These are the same brokers who make their living on share price movement up and down. There are clear agendas to influence the market. I pay little attention to the brokers or the market generally. I would rather focus on the commercial opportunity as that's what drives future revenue.

Currently I am working on an improvement and resilience project. This includes feedback from clients but focused on returning clients.

Repeatedly I am finding people booking short breaks 4-6 days especially in the winter. These are working age people largely. This is the market easyjet are winning with multiple flights per day to the popular destinations.

I think that we will get very strong Q4 and full year performance with a 30%+ increase yoy. I also think that Q1 started strongly. Certainly October was huge in the Costa del sol and Portugal.

Does anyone pay attention to brokers. I don't they all have agendas

Jet2 will feel more squeeze from easyJet holidays over the winter with easyJet having a substantial winter schedule