Member Info for Xhita

Positive outlook for FY25

- Expect FY25 capacity of c.103m seats, an increase of 3%

o ASK capacity growth of c.8% driven by average sector length increase of c.5%

- Expect to reduce winter losses with a significant improvement in Q1, with Q2 impacted by the timing of Easter.

o H1'25 ASK capacity +12% driven by average sector length growth of c.6%

o Q1'25 RASK expected to be broadly flat

o H1'25 headline CASK ex fuel expected to slightly reduce YoY

o H1'25 fuel CASK is expected to reduce by c.10%

- easyJet holidays customers planned to grow by c.25% in FY25, from a base of 2.6m customers

New CEO has been with the business 4 years and was previously the CFO so obviously has a strong grip on the dynamic. The new CFO joins in 4 days time. I rather think that any fear over that situation is nonsense.

The new CEO has a vision to deliver a £1bn profit in the mid term and £250m from easyJet holidays. His vision includes 25% customer growth for 2025 which equals around 35% profit growth. That means in 2025 they will hit that mid term target.

I can see the work coming from easyJet holidays and they will secure around 11% of the UK holiday market in 2025.

The more squeeze on income the more compelling easyjet holidays looks. I can see the traditional providers really getting squeezed.

savage you do talk some ****. you do know that q1 has finished.....the period under review was impacted by modest operational issues and the extreme weather across europe, especially in spain.

why were easyjet costs elevated in q1, what am i missing. the a1 price was consistently low. i can see wage settlements are historically high but that's in response and equal to other industry players.

q1 is about october post school holidays travel and christmas. both of these were excellent in southern spain and portugal.

anything less than £100m loss will be commercially positive £50-60m loss would set us up for a £850m profit year.

q2 is the real challenge. easyjet have really changed direction for q2 and it's going to deliver a strong quarter in my opinion. also i expect people to be receiving emails about changes to their seat allocations as they better match seat capacity to routes.

q2 is all about the holiday business. look out for a massive step up in holiday business revenue in h1 as the high yield winter sun seats convert to holiday bookings.

Absolute nonsense. What's the share price got to do with easyJet profit. The share price moves because of many factors, none of which have any connection to the operational conditions of the business. The share price drivers are all fantasy. The fact that people choose to believe in them or more likely think others believe in them drives short term trading .

On Wednesday next week we'll see how Q1 has gone. Until then it's all nonsense if it goes up or down.

I get a bit sick of this fuel price nonsense.

H1 24 easyJet hedged 80% of their fuel at $866 a MT.

Today in Málaga Airport Spain at the pump it's $676 a MT.

H1 25 they hedged at $821. The price today is a bargain.

Q1 will be ahead of last year. £100m loss is the benchmark but I suspect they will do considerably better. We need to be aware that a reduced loss headline is prime for manipulation

I am quite neutral on the easyJet airline. I see it as a way to deliver easyJet holidays and as a business the low airline margin carries risk.

It's important to understand that last year the holiday business delivered 36% customer growth and 56% profit growth to £190m. Any other business delivering this performance would have a radical share price reaction. Easyjet hold 7% of the UK market.

2025 they target 25% customer growth which if the economy of scale continues will deliver around 40% of profit growth. Lets be modest and say 25% growth in profit to £235m for 2025. Mid term target is £250m from the holiday business alone.

2025 winter will reveal a change of strategy. The winter is the real holiday business opportunity. Easyjet are running more longer routes where people are much less likely to independently arrange accommodation. Especially North Africa but also the canaries where there's a squeeze on Airbnb accomodation.

I appreciate that this is a real operational post, not off in fairyland about things that have no consequences for easyjet but stick with me.

Thumper yes, correct the 7th is the deadline for the vote.

City breaks are available through the holiday bookings however they are not so popular at the moment. I am seeing more traction towards mini sunshine breaks. We have multiple 3-4 night bookings. When I dig for the reason it's actually surprising. The primary reason is limited leave. Especially for shift workers these rest day breaks that use just 1 or 2 days leave allocation are very attractive. Easyjet are the only provider with the flexibility to do this.

It's also great for the hoteliers. As an example we are often at seasonal capacity Friday and Saturday night with domestic tourism. So selling any of the remaining 5 nights is a bonus for us. We can heavily discount to fill. Easyjet pass only some of the discount on but in return we are elevated through the search algorithm.

We fill around 90% of our easyJet bids.

It's a nonsense saying.

If your outlook is 5 minutes then maybe you could buy cheaper. I see little point in having an outlook below 2 years. Easyjet are in a transformation phase with the holiday business and buying at this stupid price will provide long term reward.

At some point in the future the holiday business will have a separate listing or will become the main profit generator. The market still bundles easyJet with airlines and doesn't value the change. This is a symbiotic hybrid and very efficient for pure profit generation.

Q1 results next Wednesday, AGM 7th February followed no doubt by an investor presentation

The tax is aimed at property speculators seeking to inflate the local market. I paid 7% tax on my villa and it's my main place of residence.

The situation they seek to avoid is one of the reasons why UK prices in prime areas are ridiculous and unsustainable.

The construction industry in Spain is very small. Almost no active sites except social housing developments.

Spain has very low population density and huge areas of Campo and national parks.

The housing issue is very specific by location and certainly doesn't create any problems away from these areas.

Savage the people I talk to don't seem to care much

The UK has been in decline for years and it doesn't stop them coming.

I know that you are just supporting your own investments but it's all based on nothing substantial.

Ultimately if people have any money they spend it on a holiday. Currently we are experiencing strong demand from Northern Europe. Prices are up for the summer and we are ahead of last year which was our best year ever. Record numbers through Málaga and summer 25 has capacity up on 24.

You need to understand that house prices are complete fiction. The sum of parts does not equal the value. It's based upon what someone will pay. It's no different to the share price.

The important business dynamic to understand is the holiday business. Profit per seat is 10x that of the airline.

The plan is to convert as many seats as possible to holiday business seats. This means that rapid growth will be delivered with minimal investment and no commercial risk as easyJet holidays do not block out rooms with hotels like traditional providers.

The growth is huge and will continue for years. Currently around 5% of seats flown are holiday seats.

In 2 years the holiday business could be more profitable than the airline from around 11% of the seats flown.

This dynamic is exclusive to easyJet.

Savage you need to understand what is happening.

The volume is not the driver, only ryanair value it. The €9.99 Flight has gone. Easyjet have moved on and are delivering record profit from many less moving parts.

This will continue. Málaga airport had a record 24, every month exceeded previous highs. Our per unit margin is +30% over 2019.

Easyjet are a smart operator, they are delivering unbeatable deals for North Africa. The big driver is convenience. Departing airport and time, especially shift and remote workers.

In 2 weeks we'll find out that Easyjet have slashed their Q1 loss by almost 50%.

Please don't think that the share price has anything to do with profit, trade volume for easyJet or anything else to do with easyJet. It's absolutely clear that it remains subject to the ebb and flow of the market trader.

Https://www.ttgmedia.com/news/brits-seeking-low-cost-affordable-luxury-this-year-says-easyjet-holidays-49883

Robust demand. Certainly Southern Europe is busy. Easyjet holidays is focused on North Africa this winter. I believe that more than 25% of seats on these routes will be 10x margin holiday packages

However despite the poor economic conditions in the UK and Germany demand is still high. Easyjet have been very smart about steering their business and ultimately for fleet size they will be sector winners for profit. They are still and likely will always be a bulk carrier but when 5% of the seats can produce 40% of the profit the mission is clear. The winter timetable for easyJet holidays especially in North Africa is all about hitting high numbers of package sales.

I agree. I would be happy for 50% to be paid to those holding on results day. Those who show faith are rewarded. The other 50% those holding H1 results day.

Of course it would create sellers on results but we have that no matter how good the results

We do know that it's rarely anything to do with easyJet.

We'll hear from easyjet on 22 January.

Summer bookings are strong, certainly from the costa del sol. We are up on this time last year by around 3%.

Important for easyJet holidays that they have increased engaged hotels by around 60%. We'll see around 40% of the group profit come from around 6% of the seats

The share price doesn't respond to anything real. Apart from the extra costs incurred in Italy over the weekend nothing negative has happened to easyjet.

A good year is built in the winter and delivered at the end of the summer. Reality is that this share very rarely has any wildcard news. It delivers growth and is evolving into a substantial hybrid business. The share price is not interested in slow and steady, it's not very exciting. However this is just the kind of situation that provides value for long term investors.

I bought the recovery from covid and so far I am over €100k up. I am not going anywhere in the mid term. Only likely to add on any dips. I can see how the holiday business is going, the product is excellent for hoteliers.

Ultimately the others will have to offer the same if they want to keep hotels onboard.

I am not so focused on when things happen because the variables are massive and largely out of the management hands.