Member Info for Xhita

A couple of pence is hardly a reversal. We are seeing an ebb and flow of a healthy market.

The trend is established.

Yes that seasonal nasty bug tells us that everything is completely normal for the winter.

Very true. Just talking their position. Still at least we know what their position is. Temporarily aligned with ours.

That helps explain the flat Q1 because it's contrary to the evidence that I see across the range of routes that I monitor. Israel and Jordan are well off my radar

I was hoping for a 10-20m loss Q1. We wait and see how it ends but 80m is a chunk to absorb.

£340m after tax. Not a bad year in the catch up phase.

FY23 headline profit before tax of £455 million (£633 million year on year improvement)

Seems quite clear to me.

The guidance was £440m to £460m so £455m is well in that range. Very few negatives in the results and no real surprises. Ultimately this is only going to trend one way. Maybe not today but this is definitely going up. Short term £4.50 is very achievable in my opinion. Into next year £5-6 is within reach given the information.

The oil price looks steady in the current range and JP Morgan expects $83 as the average price for 2024. I think that we'll see under that with OPEC potentially tampering with underfilled quota. This could see actual production rise as unfilled quota becomes traded or reallocated.

So easyJet looking set.

Https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/china/mysterious-china-pneumonia-outbreak-illness-b2453599.html

So no volcano disaster and the new health threat from China is just seasonal cold and known nasty bugs.

Any other nonsense to worry about. News stories about bad news sells media good news is rarely mentioned.

Https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisagarcia/2023/11/24/grindavk-iceland-volcano-update-european-flight-chaos-is-unlikely/?sh=4a225d042ac1

Unlikely.

Https://invezz.com/news/2023/11/23/easyjet-share-price-slips-after-a-key-warning-by-jet2/

It has to be said that easyJet and Jet2 are very different. Apart from the obvious difference in regional exposure Jet2 is very holiday focused in it's destinations easyJet is very well established in the expat and city routes.

Ultimately though there is very little competition if the traveller is committed to one destination or departure airport.

As an example I often fly Malta to Luton. Only choice is Ryanair. Gatwick is too far from my final destination for easyJet. Air Malta Gatwick and Heathrow but they are at least 50+% more expensive. So on the Malta Gatwick route there's no competition within the price bracket. This is a big expat route as lots of Maltese and British families cross over. Often it's around £200 in the summer and £30-40 in the winter on a two week prior booking. This year though that £30-40 is £40-80.

In my opinion I don't think that people contemplating a winter sun holiday give a thought to Israel or Egypt tensions. It's just not on their radar.

Global events are never supportive and are constant and ongoing. There is never an event of nothing to report it's always something. This is how the media has a purpose and a livelihood. They will always be ratcheting up the stress levels.

The flying public are extremely resilient and talk of conflict won't stop them going. They are targeting+15% in Q1 that will be a substantial step if they can achieve that. Last year a £133m loss in Q1 they year before £213m. This year £10-20m would be an outstanding achievement.

are you completely ******ed.

of course there will be a drop in demand and cheaper prices. this is why easyjet make a winter loss and a summer profit. yes it cheaper to fly to the sun out of season, it's also cheaper to stay in a hotel out of season. funny that, it's nothing new it's the same every year.

so the bit about inflating results is simply that they may run advertising campaigns based on price......yes they do all the time. why are they trying to boost the figures on paper. what does that mean. they are simply following their business model. h1 winter will lose money h2 will make money. the goal is to lose less and win more which they will do this year.

It could dip no matter what they say. I guess that the trigger date for the dividend is in January or February. I am most interested in the post period trade and bookings up to Easter.

I see higher prices compared to last year and planes full. If that's confirmed then whatever the share price does just buy quality as it will result in due course in revenue and profit increases.

I am hoping Q1 when reported in January shows a 10-20m loss continuing the rapid progress from this time last year.

The discounted seats are extremely limited. You try and book one.

So are you accusing the management of dishonesty by "trying to inflate the bookings"

You are going to have to explain that as I can see some legal issues here immediately.

If you feel that the management are not disclosing the real figures then you need to report it.

I can only say what I see. Three easyJet flights in 3 weeks. All almost full and two booked within two weeks of flying at prices well over what I paid this time last year.

Don't come to Malta, the weather just broke. First rain since May.

Despite apparently being updated recently it's well out of date.

"Due to its unprofitable status, analysts aren’t forecasting easyJet to pay a dividend this financial year"

hmm I guess ready to update was too difficult.

Who would have guessed that we may see an increase in respiratory infections in the winter. Of course people are getting sick. Our Roma hotel had around 30% of staff on sick leave two weeks ago so something was clearly working it's way through Rome. I guess that wasn't a news story however China certainly is.

I just see risk in tampering with my holding. Yes the market ebbs and flows often with little connection to reality and can move in mysterious ways. However a broad trend has to be adopted ignoring weekly movement.

Given the very real change in circumstances for this business over the last 12-18 months and the expectations conveyed by the company for the current year to be doing anything other than trending up seems to be unrealistic.

I have an 18 month window here and I believe that I will see strong growth and a couple of dividends.

Agreed however the requirements for funding were very visible. Since the post COVID highs the company has delivered real recovery that is not at all reflected in the share price. The rapid progress in the easyJet holidays product especially but also in other areas of business.

It's one thing to talk the talk but to walk the walk is a different challenge. They seem to be well on the way and this year I believe that we will see substantial growth despite the economic disasters of the UK.

They are evidencing success and flagging more ahead but the market is not yet interested.

Looks very cheap to me