Member Info for Xenor

Nice conspiracy theory.

To be fair the guy was posting on the INFA board in 2021. How long have you been here Alamo? And does it really matter?

I agree more contract news would be nice. Surely they have won more than one contract in the last 6 months.

There could be dozens of reasons. No one knows other than them.

Derampers/shorters will tell you that it is because they know something we don't but the reality is different. They sold 1.2% right before the preferred bidder announcement was made at 6p so they clearly know nothing. :)

My current theory is that they have wanted out for a while due to the macro outlook in 2022 but the volume before around mid October (when the FSS ramps started) was awful and did not allow them to sell 22 million shares. Hence selling into volume since then no matter what the price.

It won't be a straight line but we should be in the 30s by now with the news we have had.

TheDogFarther, you seem to be doing a good job here attempting to change the conversation away from this podcast.

I have already answered your question when you asked it last week.

AimMaster2018 is an opportunist who will play a share both directions. The short term bear case following all of the recent Killik TR-1s was one such opportunity that us bulls dismissed as we assumed the price would improve upon confirmation. Although AimMaster2018 was posting about shorting in the 17s a week ago so his timing was poor there. Buy before news, sell and then short is what the professional traders did last week.

Si Derman, it's probably both. If a trader buys those Killik shares then they get sold a second time. Some people probably sold just because they expected a pullback due to the Killik dump as well. Plus shorters. Some of these traders have probably bought and sold 5 times since the news, which skews the real number of buys and sells vs Killik sells.

What we need is investors buying shares and holding them, which reduces the supply. It is happening as I keep seeing new people saying they have bought. It's just not keeping up with the rate of shares Killik are offloading.

We're now reaching the point where it isn't worth selling for a trade and not much to be gained by shorting. Not many people are in profit at this level either, mostly just those who took positions at 6-7p before preferred bidder announcement and haven't sold. So demand should soon be higher than the Killik supply. I can't see it going below 16p. Maybe high 15s as worst case scenario. My prediction is they will finish in the next two weeks unless buy volume dries up as per December.

It's all about the supply and demand. So far supply of shares is outstripping demand due to Killik dumping. If they weren't then these would be very difficult to get hold of.

Check out WAND to see what happens when shares are scarce. It's up nearly 500% since May at 883m market cap and I haven't seen a ramp anywhere for it. Went under the radar. We will have a period like that at some point but don't expect it short term as shares are plentiful right now.

Patience. The investment case is in a better position today than it was a week ago. Once Killik is done we'll start moving in the right direction.

How about this MoU from 2019:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/INFA/mou-signed-with-navantia-kr1yz4fdaubgunm.html

"This MoU is the first step towards formalising a Teaming Agreement with Navantia, under which, both companies will work together on a multitude of infrastructure and marine projects to take them to commercial fruition ("Teaming Agreement").

Subject to completion of the acquisition of the assets of Harland and Wolff, as announced on 01 October 2019 and further on 11 November 2019, the MoU envisages utilising the assets of Harland and Wolff for the purposes of providing a range of services to Navantia.

These services include, inter alia, supporting Navantia in their proposed tender for contracts to provide three new Fleet Solid Support ("FSS") ships for the Royal Fleet Auxiliary, with the view to performing certain fabrication works at Harland and Wolff. Additionally, both parties will co-operate closely with each other on other opportunities in the offshore wind renewables sector as well as in other marine/offshore and onshore infrastructure projects."

They succeeded with that. It has been a plan three years in the making. The renewable projects are only a matter of time. For Navantia, the HARL shipyards allow them to bid for more contracts and use the capacity at HARL.

Stokey, that's the RNS I am referring to. They swapped £600k for the shares. I guess it wasn't debt if it was a purchase rather than money owed, but still money for equity at the end of the day.

Who knows. In Appledore's case I guess they has no intention of holding them given that they sold near the all time low before preferred bidder status. They didn't buy their shares, was a debt to equity deal when HARL finished paying off Appledore.

Just worked out how many shares we've had dumped on us by large holders since the beginning of November.

Killik: 11498331
Appledore: 9282278
Kave: 2622593
Total: 23403202

I believe Appledore are fully out. Checked through my earlier posts on Telegram as I remembered highlighting a 282178 trade that followed a couple of 500k sells and days after the 6m trade. I was convinced Appledore were out at the time based on that six digit trade lining up with the number of shares Appledore held after taking off the first digit (9).

Yeah this is definitely the 6m trade from early November as the TR-1 reduction is exactly 6m shares.

Given how fast they sold them after receiving them I would be surprised if they haven't since sold the rest.

Killik

I'd be surprised if Killik are looking at a chart and deciding not to sell more based on a line.

Chips are bloody expensive these days. Maybe that phrase needs to change.

I've been wondering for a while now why Walker crisps is a significant shareholder but now I realise that Walker Crips isn't a typo. It's a financial institution.

Stokey, but if we are going to have a 150-200m finance facility for shipbuilding I am doubtful that we would be able to achieve similar for the gas storage project. That might just be too much debt.

We will at minimum need a JV for IM to be able to fund its construction.

My current view on Killik is that volume is going to dry up and they will have to stop selling. Similar to how they didn't sell any in December or first half of January. Then they will get fully out at a later date when volume returns. My view that volume will dry up is based on the idea that people will hold off buying until Killik are out, but they don't realise that they can't get out unless people buy their shares.

Either way it presents a great opportunity down here for those looking at the share.