Member Info for Xenor

Stokey, if you want facts then JW was talking about FSS as early as 2019. https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/INFA/mou-signed-with-navantia-kr1yz4fdaubgunm.html

It came true did it not? Clearly the larger contracts take time. We had the MOU on renewables in 2021, something must be in the pipeline on that as well.

Market is forward looking, not backwards. If you think the share price is going to plummet over the next 7 months then you're either no longer holding or not very smart as I would sell all my shares on Monday and go short if I believed so. Your information is generally good but sometimes you turn overly negative, usually when the share price is having a bad run. Suspicious...

Stokey this company is more than just FSS and IM. We are currently valued as going bust and you think the share price will drift down until September?

As others have said there will be a lot of news before then that add further value to this share. We should smash the 2022 revenue this year and very likely make a profit based on what has been said. That alone would take this to 50p+. If dividends arrive in 2024 a year before the main FSS revenue comes in then this will move upwards to £1.

JW has said large contracts (plural) are due over the next couple of quarters back in November. FSS was one, and I would guess we may see a big renewables contract as well.

I'm not sure what your "this will keep dropping" is based on. Yes it drifted down after news last year but there was a seller if you remember. Likely Lombard as they disappeared from the large shareholders list without a single TR-1. Sentiment was in the toilet as IM was being held up and this was an unloved share with under 20 trades on some days. You cannot base 2023 on 2022.

Let them jfk9... We could post a profit higher than our market cap this year if this insanity continues.

I think he may have been offloading in some smaller amounts today like 75k or 50k, even saw a bunch of 20k trades in quick succession. That huge trade at 12:31 is also suspicious.

I am uncertain whether he is out, but if he isn't then I am fairly sure he will be under 2m left and that amount is becoming insignificant. We'll find out Monday. If he still has shares then they will be gone by Tuesday.

Keep an eye out for any late delayed trades.

It's unbelievable HarChris. We don't even have to go back a year. I was paying more than this price on the M55 contract in July. It was a slow drip down to 5.6p from there as there was a seller dropping 50k lots constantly. Looking back, it could have been Lombard as they disappeared from the large holders list without a single TR-1. Market is corrupt if so.

He is dumping hard this afternoon and I would expect that he is out before the end of the day or will have a small amount to dump on Monday.

TB has always been poor with communication and has hammered the share price on several occasions when there was no need. I remember a year ago when he did that right before a placing, should have been a red flag. Prior to that there was the covid RNSs which made no sense at the time. It's hard for anyone to say TB has acted in the best interests of shareholders.

The sellers are making this way over sold. It isn't great to be sat on a loss but no one expected this. I have bought all the way from 6p to 27p and no way did I think we'd be down here after confirming the contract.

The reality is the two large sellers wanted out and this contract has given them the volume to do so. Killik started selling at 6p so I don't believe they know something we don't. Prior to FSS, before the ramp traders arrived in mid October the daily volumes here were pathetic. That didn't allow sellers with large TR-1 holdings to exit earlier.

As for placing, no chance. Or at least close to zero chance as it would be wrong ro rule it out completely. If a placing was coming it would have been here by now. Debt finance will fund the company plus we expect to break even or make a small profit this year.

They need to be held to account to be honest. They have shafted a lot of people. Not just those with investments trapped in this but also those of us who took substantial losses exiting when it became apparent that the company were misleading investors.

Whilst they were busy defaulting on Elemental TB was busy ramping the company in interviews with information like 8000 annualised production which was clearly a one off monthly total and not sustainable.

Kave likes to sell in nice round numbers. I'll be keeping an eye out for a trade ending in 56,210 as that might determine whether he is out. This method was how I discovered Appledore had sold out in November - there was a six digit match.

We all know that the share price is down here due to Killik and Kave. It is starting to look like Killik has stopped dumping as no TR-1s this week. Kave will likely sell his last few million but I can't imagine it having that much impact when his dumping yesterday equated to a 6% drop. I see 15p as the floor here but that doesn't mean it will hit it.

As for the topic here - my point is that there is more to this company than FSS and the company needs to do better to highlight this as these smaller contracts are what will be paying the bills this year and next. Making a profit this year even if just a few million would be huge. If the company thinks that it is possible then the market will welcome such news.

I am guessing that the "aspirations" included contracts they are likely to win that we don't yet know about. They will also gain some revenue from the Greenland mine Arnish deal but we don't know what that is worth. Plus cruise and ferry, ship repair and other smaller jobs.

I think we will get guidance un the annual report so hopefully it is going to at least show break even or a small profit for this year.

Just a reminder of what we are invested in here in the short term (with FSS being the mid to longterm case).

On August 16th JW released a business update stating the following:

"With significant levels of revenue contracted, the relative stability of the cruise & ferry and ship repair markets and confidence around potential orders within the defence and renewables markets, management has an aspiration of generating revenues of between £100 million - £115 million for FY23."

" Consequently, the Company believes that annualised cashflow break-even is achievable on revenues of between £80 million - £100 million depending on the mix of contract wins."

December 30th RNS then tells us that:

M55:
"As a result, management expects approximately £20m of revenues from the M55 contract to be deferred into H1 FY 2023. "

Cruise and ferry:
"Ongoing geo-political uncertainties and global inflation have also caused certain other clients within the cruise and ferry market to either defer their contracts into 2023 or reduce the scope of works. As a result, management estimates the loss of revenues on this account for the fourth quarter for FY 2022 to be between £8m and £10m. The Company expects this amount to be deferred to H1 2023 when clients are scheduled to place contracts for dry docking in Belfast with new FY23 budgets."

On Saipem:
"The estimated revenue for Q4 2022 against this project was c£5m, part of which the Company expects to recover on final settlement during H1 2023."

So let's be conservative here and say 30m of deferred revenue will be recovered in H1 2023. That means if we go off the August 16th RNS then we should expect revenue aspirations to be between 130-145m. This gives a profit of between 30m and 65m depending on which end of the range both variables sit.

Was the 25m of revenue FSS will generate in 2023 included in this aspiration in August? JW must have had some idea of the contract split back then if Team Resolute were to win the contract.

My point here is that whilst certain individuals may try to scaremonger on Twitter over revenue and debt (2022 accounts will look poor), the market is forward looking and 2023 is what matters right now. Everyone is so focused on FSS right now that they're forgetting that the company is doing a tonne of other work. This isn't a one trick pony and it's this other work that is important until 2025.

What we need from JW is a new revenue guidance figure for 2023 as the last one is 6 months old now. Perhaps this will be included when they post the full year results to counter the bad that will be included in it.

What doesn't tally up Si_Derman is how someone can sell that many shares on a low volume day. Who bought them, or are MMs sat on millions of shares? Total volume today was 4.6m on AIM and 1.5m on AQSE.

Just noticed 6x 200k sells on the AQSE exchange as well. So that's 3.4m shares Kave offloaded within an hour. Crazy.

It's certainly odd. There was 1.7m dumped today in 100/200k lots after 3pm which was probably him. Actually make that 2.2m as a 500k delayed lot just appeared. I can't work out when the rest may have been sold but it could be that he was sat just above 4% before today.

What I don't get is why he didn't sell into the news last week.

I've said before that if Labour get in power they might favour their friends in BAE and Bab****. Politicians are all corrupt at the end of the day.

Wouldn't even surprise me if the endless selling has a link to these people in an attempt to harm the company and its shareholders in the event it did need to raise cash from the market. But that's as far as I'll go with that conspiracy theory!

Look at the timestamps on them. Some of them were delayed postings. Do you think the share price would plummet like that if they were buys?

1.7m shares have been dumped in 100/200k lots since 3pm. That's why we dropped to 16p. That's 1% of the company so could be a TR-1 coming if it is an II above 3%.