Member Info for Xenor

I think it makes a small difference for sentiment. If someone is thinking about buying and see more red than blue then they may decide to hold off from buying expecting it to go lower. Then because people are doing that it drops as the sells come in.

Quite often I hear of buys showing as sells but I rarely hear about sells showing as buys. It no doubt happens however.

It did but it has only held on to 130% of that. So 130% rise from here is around 30p, which is my realistic estimate now for end of this year.

Let's see how it plays out. You're obviously more confident than I am. People tend to sell after a rise so it won't be going to those numbers in a straight line. 300% rise in 6 months is a big ask for any share.

The LTIP is:

"2023: 37.50 pence per share
o 2024: 46.88 pence per share
o 2025: 58.60 pence per share"

My expectation is that they will miss the 2023 target but the 2024 and 2025 targets are set so close to the 2023 target that they will hit them both.

Unfortunately the dropping share price over the past couple of months has caused quite a few to question whether HARL is as good an investment as they first thought, which leads to more selling. Selling creates selling.

The same tends to happen in reverse. On a rising share price people tend to think the investment is better than they first thought and then you get idiots like me topping up at 27p after a 350% rise. As if it was going to rise much more than that in the short term when traders were planning to dump after "closing the gap".

The reality is often somewhere in between. We all weren't wrong that this is a great investment and has multi bagger potential, the issue is we have to adjust our timescales due to the 2022 revenue miss followed by a year delay to breaking even in what was already a tough market.

Finance confirmed and new contract announcements will reverse the down trend but our price expectations have to shift forward a year in my opinion. Confident we will see the 20s again this year, but the 30s may have to wait until next year.

Whilst I have this thread open... How about this from November 9th. Everyone seems to have forgotten.

"The enhanced financing will be incredibly useful to meet our capital expenditure and working capital obligations towards some key and large contracts that we have been negotiating over the last 18 months, due to come to fruition in the next couple of quarters."

This was pre-FSS win, but the comment by JW is plural and implies more than one. Maybe this is how we are going to hit the 2024 revenue targets?

Good to see. Maybe 12.75p was the bottom. But I said that about 14p. With finance due early Q2 and IM JR in May the down trend has to be due a reversal.

Plus we are due some contract news if JW wants to get anywhere close to his 2024 targets, as mentioned in my other post.

Obsessed.

Surprised they haven't started a defamation case against you yet.

From March 1st RNS.

"Updated outlook for FY23 and FY24
o Target revenues of £100m - £115m in FY23
o Target revenues of £200m - £230m in FY24"

JW must be expecting to win some decent sized contracts this year to hit that 2024 target, as FSS does not begin until 2025.

So for everyone getting concerned about the share price, I think a lot of good news will be on the way. :)

People see it dropping almost daily and hold off buying because they might get in lower if they wait. Then it drops because not many people are buying. Going to take finance news to reverse the trend and then there will be a stampede of all those sitting on the sidelines trying to buy. The MMs will gap it up and those people will be busy wielding charts and posting "gap must be closed, it will drop!" whilst their buy trades go NT.

I think if finance with Astra were to fall through then they would likely try to negotiate a further increase in the deal with Riverstone. But I don't think the Astra deal will fall through. My suspicion is that the delay is down to waiting for a decision from UKEF, who have had to conduct their own DD.

Chartists always call for lower. The lines on their charts change to suit their agendas. I've seen so many different charts in the past week. I agree we are being priced as if finance is going to fall through, likely brought on by the banking crisis.

You have a weird obsession with Kave and Killik to be honest. Almost creepy.

Yeah looking back it seems they don't do one every quarter. That is something the company needs to change if so as this is AIM and AIM investors demand constant news flow to keep interest. That said, the update on March 1st didn't do any good for the share price.

We are expecting a Q1 trading update. Last year it came on the last trading day of March, which is this Friday. If it is positive then that might stop the rot long enough until finance.

Don't know about Forrest but I wish I had one of those pretend trading accounts rather than my real account. I would be financially better off.

Agreed. The fear here right now is on the finance package. I don't see it as a major risk but not everyone is as well researched as some of us. The down trend should reverse once that is confirmed. In the current market I am not expecting a great interest rate. Could be that the company decides to refinance again next year when interest rates are lower, to secure a better deal. Just as we've done with Riverstone.

Strange that we are down over 5% but people can't buy.

So that's your game plan Biker. Sell for 12p and pray that you can get back in under 10p. Thanks for making it clear, as if it wasn't already obvious from your posting history.

TheDogFarther, there has indeed been a lot of positive news recently but there is no getting away from the fact the December 30th RNS was highly damaging. It was likely the final straw for Allianz and other larger holders that decided to sell into the following contract RNSs. Those shares got absorbed by the smaller PIs, who find holding anything more than a few weeks to be a challenge. The March 1st RNS whilst mostly positive was also surprising in that we won't break even until next year, when the August RNS suggested it would happen this year. That too reduces confidence in a market where loss making and high debt is unattractive.

I'm sure everything will be fine and the finance RNS will bring back confidence but I would be lying to still say I believe this will be above 40p at the end of the year, as I have done in the past. Maybe JW will pull some rabbits out and we will exceed expectations and have a revised revenue target that sees break even this year, who knows. That would be based on hope.

This is why you should only invest in something you are prepared to hold for at least a few years. I still see £1+ in the future, just not as fast as previously thought.