Member Info for Xenor

I don't have the time to respond to all. When i invested I had every faith in ARB and where it was heading. But I believe my calculations were wrong. I too thought bitcoin could reach 300k this year based on the hype, and that a 20 PE ratio for ARB was right. I don't believe that any more. I lost faith when people went from spamming the board with "hodl for godl" to day trading it. Not really a hodl is it? If people were holding then it wouldn't be a volatile stock. I expected it to follow bitcoin's ups and downs somewhat, and give some exposure to crypto. That was a mistake and I should have invested in crypto directly. Getting spiked was a mistake, I should have waited for it to come back down to earth. I got sucked in during the placing and bought some for 200p. Then averaged up afterwards. Another mistake. Sentiment changed after that placing. I'm probably the only person who bought shares in that placing and sold them for a loss.

Also regarding the comment on RMM. Someone asked the resident troll about how their ARB investment is going as ARB is their biggest holding. So I mentioned my misfortune here. I figure if he's deramping a falling share there then why not here.

I'm going to stop being negative on this board from this point forward - and feel free to call me out on it if I go back on my word. I agree my negativity isn't helping sentiment. I want ARB to succeed and I want to sell the majority of my shares without losing too much. If we see 190-200p again I'm reducing. This stock is too volatile/traded for my liking but I'd like to leave a bit in to recover losses if it spikes high again.

@Just_the_facts That's a fair comment but just where are we going to consolidate at? When I bought in around 230p I thought we had consolidated there because the share price was moving up and down with bitcoin. Are we going to consolidate around 150p or go below 100p? You can't time the market. The share needed people buying in after the FOMO otherwise it would only have sellers and plummet. If the price was moving on fundamentals as opposed to day traders, sentiment and Elon Musk I'd be happier.

Bitcoin will fall off a cliff after this year when the bull market ends so expecting to wait until 2022 to profit isn't a reasonable expectation. It all depends on where the floor for bitcoin is after this cycle. Last cycle it fells from 19k to 3k. If it drops to 1/6 again we could be looking at 17k bitcoin if it peaks at 100k. Still profitable for ARB but a lot lower than it is today and I would expect a share price much lower than today if that happens. I know some have predicted a 300k peak but I don't see that as realistic. That's my worry about thinking longterm with this.

"We are a day traders dream atm"

This is why this share isn't going to reach the dizzy heights of £2 anytime soon, unfortunately. Nevermind the £10 end of year people keep banging on about.

All Elon would need to do to make lots of money is to buy a load of ARB shares and tweet that he likes how ARB are going green. Must be nice having such power over the markets.

I just think an extra 4 trillion mcap on bitcoin over the next few months is unrealistic. It would require lots and lots more new people/institutions investing into bitcoin in such a short time period, or people/institutions already invested massively increasing their holding. I see a doubling (100k coin/2 trillion mcap) as much more realistic.

Where is this extra 4 trillion dollars coming from for bitcoin to reach 250k?

@Everup I wasn't all in. It was 21% of my portfolio. Now 13% after selling a portion. Still more than I would like - should have never put that much into a volatile stock and I accept I made a mistake. I'll take a loss on the rest once it hits 190-200p range again - or perhaps leave 3% in so that if the price doubles to 400p then I'll at least claw my losses back. With 3% in I wouldn't even bother checking the price daily. I figure we're all checking this board as often as we do because we have big investments here and no doubt some people are weighted higher than myself. I could sell other shares to average down but I don't want to increase my portfolio weighting on this when I'm looking to reduce.

@HarChris That's true, as well as the point above about weighting. I thought you would get your 110p target to be honest. I still think there is a chance you will get your target if you wait long enough. I think it will go up further before dropping however.

@K3VMC You've just gone and proven my point. Maybe I'm the fool here for not buying some at 123 to trade as well. Would help claw back some of my losses. Difficult thing to do when you already think you've got too much invested however.

Anyway let's drop this discussion. As Everup said - focus on the positives. Negativity isn't going to help this share go places.

@Everup People will do it anyway. It already fell back from the morning peak of 157p to 150p. Let's hope there are enough buyers to balance out those sells and keep momentum going because once the share price starts going down it leads to others selling. Hopefully the US will provide some buying power.

I'm more concerned about the people buying at 125p yesterday taking a dump for their 20% profits.

@Everup It's volatile because lots and lots of people sell then buy back. They are the ones making the money here. People holding longterm end up sitting on large losses with averages above 200p or got in last year and are watching their profits dwindle whilst traders milk it. I have every faith in Argo, just none in the shareholders as most are traders and we need holders for the price to gain ground and keep it.

I like your optimism but the people who bought at 122p earlier will be selling this before the end of the day.

I agree Everup, we should try to be positive about our investments and I admit I have been a negative nancy lately with this one. It's just difficult to see any positivity lately. I've watched bitcoin go up and us fall. Yet hen bitcoin falls we fall further.

If bitcoin were to dip under 40k then he may get his 80p entry. Probably need under 30k to get 50p.

I think it's a valid question - how much cash are they short? I'm not sure anyone here knows the answer however but some may be able to give an estimate. It's not going to be anywhere near 70 million though.

It's probably a good thing. Averaging down when the price is plummeting and showing no signs of stopping just means further losses. How far will this go before it stops falling? That's the time to top up.

"remember there is a big difference between a trader and an investor"

Traders make money, investors lose money? That's what ARB has taught me.

@HarChris Fair enough. You did well selling the majority/all of yours around 200p. I had multiple opportunities to do the same so only have myself to blame for being a bag holder with a high average. Price has fallen too low to get out now and isn't heading back to 200p until the next crypto bull cycle in 2024 in my opinion. I'm not even sure I would buy at this level or even your 110p target if I weren't a holder. When is the rot going to stop? 0.1p was obviously a joke but the point remains there will always be a cheaper target. People would have laughed at a 110p target a week ago as much as 0.1p.

Apologies for the whinge, just very unhappy that I got sucked in by the hodl 4 godl bull**** and dreams of 1000p during the spike when the people spouting this were selling up. I did my own research but it was based on PE ratios that we can only guess and bitcoin prices people were dreaming of because after all no one on this planet knows what a bitcoin will be worth in December or May 2022.

@HarChris I just think if you're trading this (which you've admitted to in the past) then there are always going to be cheaper entry prices. The price was 10p in December. I sadly don't see us getting back to 195p for a very long time because the vultures aren't going to hold for a +50% gain.

Share price will continue falling as long as people keep selling their shares to buy back lower. May as well wait for 0.1p if you're waiting for lower prices.