Member Info for wyndrum

Westi, "So given the turbulence and extremely low value of the SP amid speculation of a RI, even if these rumors were correct, the current valuation must be already at a point where any dilution of shares and with the resultant cash raising would justify a bounce in SP???"
Or, maybe not.
An example (but not relevant to Kier's industry), is a company called Xeros (XSG). They have patents on clever tech that allows washing machines to use less water and filters to remove micro plastics.). At 10p (they were floated at 250p I think) they were running out of cash waiting for an uptake of the tech. Everyone knew it was coming. When it arrived it was a 10-1 RI, which no one saw coming!! and the SP went to 1p and instead of raising £10m raised less than £2m! so a 90% reduction in the value of the individuals shareholding!
So, while you could say, what has this to do with kier, and (to a degree, that's fair) l use it to illustrate that RI's can be tricky things to get away when a company is up against it. Which is why, for all of Kier's order wins, until this is resolved many will shy away from buying. Its not unreasonable. And it certainly is NOT a no-brainer that Kier is undervalued right now.
(PS XSG live on with a bit later on, another fund raining exercise that due to more positive news was oversubscribed and does now, look to be quite an opportunity there. But the SP is still only 1.5p bot this with an update in Sept could move dramatically I think)

DG, Its on HL when you go to their charts section of a stock under lower indicators you will see it there. I would caution using it as a buy or sell tool until you have read up on TA generally. Its not for everyone.
If Technical Analysis is of interest then there are a million books out there but fwiw, the one that resonated most with me was "The Psychology of Technical Analysis by Tony Plummer (I don't even know if you can still get it!) but he explains why TA works due to herd mentality and then looks at various patterns and indicators. Again, fwiw I have learned personally, over many years, that it works when I keep it simple, but I must stress, this is not for everyone.

And that's exactly your right. Filter me out.

CI, Charts on their own make certain patterns that chartists believe repeat themselves and therefore help predict future SP moves. To refine those decisions various indicators (or algorithms based on the SP) were invented. One of then is the "relative strength indicator" or RSI. This mirrors the SP movement but translates it to a range between 0-100. Broadly speaking anything above 80 or below 20 indicates that a share is over bought (80 +)or over sold ( <20). (Some work on a range of 30-70, rather than 20-80, there is no absolute on this). So when a share shoots up the RSI goes with it. Then it sells off and the RSI falls.
For instance today the SP was 3.35 and the RSI was 69.41 so, close to going into overbought territory which would have been an inducement for some to sell to get back in at a lower price . (EVE is a crap example because the spread is way to wide to ever trade on this indicator , but the theory holds true). Anyway, later on in the day after various movements, the SP according to HL, has finished at 3.60 but the RSI has unwound its previous position and is now only 63.54, leaving movement for the SP to rise before making some think its over bought and should therefore be sold.
So, a higher SP and a lower RSI... Happy days if you are long.

For instance if I saw a share I wanted to buy but it was 80 plus on the RSI I would not buy it. On the other hand if I saw a share with a sub 20 RSI number I would investigate further.
Nothing is cast iron, obviously , but this consistently works well for me

Well, AJ, you're going to fit right in...…

Are you selling at the end of next week then?
Do you think any one on this board knows the answer?
Do you think if they did actually know and therefore able to predict the future they would tell you?
If you want a security blanket then I'd go to Dunelm and get one rather than waste time posting here for information that is of no use whatsoever.

I hate you all.....

I hate you...…:0))

It seems pretty obvious now, beyond all doubt, reasonable or not, that the SP is not going to go/stay above150p until some cash inducing news is released. so Please can we stop posting forecasts about blue days, final pushes, £100 etc etc....

(And if that does not make the SP go above 150p in the next 20 minutes then I'm done... I've got nothin'....)

I understand Lin, that when he wanted to sell them nobody wanted to buy them at that price. And it took several months to offload at ever lower prices because..... people did not want to buy them.

Look, you can have a RI that dilutes the SP but is over subscribed because people want to get on board and the SP goes up!. That's supply and demand working the other way.
I just don't get how so many of you think that just because woodford dumped shares over many months, on the market that somehow that was not reflective of Eve's worth at the time. Clearly not enough people thought EVE were worth buying. How hard is that to get?
No other company bought EVE out did they at the very low prices? So I just don't buy the woodford offload as the reason for the depressed price.

I would mention that with the small up and downs today the RSI indicator is reading a very cool 60 leaving room for further gains …...

:)) I dunno why I am posting (quiet at the back, I can hear you), coz I'm in until somewhere between 17-25p.....

Without going round and round:... If nothing much has changed (except that EVE is now trading profitably cut their cash burn and Woodford is out and has been for a little while, then why aren't the Shares 100p plus now like they were before?

OW, I'm playing devils advocate here as I am as keen as anyone for the continued success of EVE. But, the Market rarely misprices a stock and when it does, it does not last long. If covid had not appeared and the extra sales that it generated not found there way to EVE, we could of had an update with continued (albeit small) losses. Then what for SP?
The management did the right things (eventually) but it could be argued, were forced to through imminent closure due to funds expiring. The business had I believe and the market agreed, at that time, a greater chance of failure than recovery.
I still don't get the Woodford thing as an excuse for the depressed SP. The reason the shares sank to an over supply from the seller was ... wait for it.... because there was insufficient demand from buyers. Therefore the consensus view was, that EVE was not a good bet at that time, or at least at the time and price the shares were being offered. Hence they sunk and stayed sunk until the update(s).
I'm not saying we got lucky, All I am saying is that it was a calculated risk based on an unsubstantiated view that the company was doing better than reported and the mitigating circumstances led in our opinions, to a "false" valuation.

It turns out we were right. But I just don't think it was ever the Slam Dunk some here believe.

No CI, the cash was never the support you thought. If the company failed to make any profit then the cash pile dwindles until there is nothing left. The judgement you (and others made) was that the company would turn a profit before the cash pile was exhausted.) But, it was not definite, far from it. In fact there has only been 2 recent months where it has ever happened... So, you know, it was as sure as you imagined or at least the SP reflected more people had doubts about a positive outcome than you did.

the bigger the risk... the bigger the prize......

DG: AVCT.....sky is the limit..... if, maybe, when.... but nevertheless....

Hi OW "I could be wrong..." and that's the point, you could be wrong, something happens and the SP falls to 2.0p or 2.5p or whatever, and then selling at 3-3.2p looks a very smart move.
No one knows, which is the whole point otherwise there would not be a market to trade in.

Hi OW, you raise a good point but that is always the dilemma... When to sell a share. There is no, imo definitive answer, the pat maxim, is cut your losses early and run your winners, but that's easier said then done!
Its very difficult when you have doubled your money or even trebled it to simply hold. (Also, the whole point is to make money, so you need to cash in at some stage! I mean I can't but more smoked salmon and bubbly with a share certificate...)
So having a defined exit strategy is a very good thing, particularly as none of us can predict the future.
Persoanlly because I trade mostly short term (up to few weeks), I sell if I get to 25% profits, because invariably when I wait for further gains that SP retreats. So that's my personal experience based on what I do.
This Stocki s different, it had the potential, prior to the update to correct itself from a company going bust to a profitable enterprise and with that substantial gains. Now, I Imagine that was everybody's view when purchasing a couple of months or more ago. Given that, so far, is what has happened I will stay with it because from my POV, the reasons to buy in the first palce have not changed, therefore there is no reason to sell, (other than a fear that those gains, through a falling SP, could evaporate.) That "fear" is very powerful and it has the potential to change an individuals previous intended, course of action. Form the posts of the sellers on this BB, they seemed to have a very clear idea of what they wanted and having achieved it have sold. And as I said that is to be commended. They had plan, executed it and reaped the rewards.
All I am saying is my plan, is slightly different. There is no right or wrong in these 2 examples.

Although the swings in percentage terms are quite large, from a technical point of view it looks to me as though the recent fall has allowed the RSI indicator which shows if a share is in over bought or over sold territory , to fall from being very close to overbought, to now be in a range which "facilitates" further sustained rises.
So although I would just like to see this go up and up and up, it does need to occasionally "reset" as it were, by falling back.

It gets trickier now because the initial fast fall down to 25p then heralded a gradual but persistent fall to the recent all time lows. The next trading range is I think, somewhere between maybe 5-8p which is a huge range but it was bouncing away in between those prices on its way down. I think it will do the same again and will take a bit of time to clear 8p only because as I have mentioned before quick rises and quick falls move the share technically into over bought and over sold territory. As you can imagine we are in the overbought range at the moment. So up and down movement is required for this position to unwind itself and make headroom for (hopefully) further gains.
The market, when its got a hard on for a stock will ignore this technical indicator for a while (nothing is certain in this life!) so my best guess is that apart from some minor fluctuations, we will get into this 5-8p trading range quite quickly. Once there (assuming we get there, and based on time it does take to arrive) , should give a clue as to what happens next. Just my opinion