The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Right now they are making circa £32-40m revenue per month, with that expected to double capacity to 8m per month soon that rev will double to - £64-80m rev per month. Margins are high on that. Add to that the new d-pcr test which has greater margins, expect that to vastly increase capacity again and rev. We know have the comfort blanket of tests being ordered initially for upto 6months in advance. We know they are selling to around 100 countries. This should show strength as it is still vastly undervalued despite the growth. Phenomenal company - fully expect £1billion mcap to be breached in the coming weeks.
With the shortage of reagents out their in the world market the only way ThermoFisher could promise that many tests is probably with a new test that needs less reagents. Sound familiar - direct - pcr due to be launched this week by NCYT. Not definite but very very plausible.
Primerdesign is for sale on the thermofisher site - intriguing
https://www.fishersci.be/shop/products/16680172/16680172?searchHijack=true&searchTerm=16680172&searchType=RAPID&matchedCatNo=16680172
Just keep an eye out for the new d-pcr test this week that is currently getting approval. Game changer for NCYT. On the doc for approval is the volume of tests they could using the new kit.
"What is the likely production volume??
960,000 reactions per week"
Now think about that, this will be in addition of the upto 8m tests a month using the current PCR kit. So you can add another 4m a month on this.
https://testingmethods.crowdicity.com/post/3169120
Remember - we have the work we doing with Astra Zeneca and GSK - that will be even more orders for that and the new d-pcr test kit that comes out this week too. And this is just one country - NCYT are supplying to nearly 100 countries. Add that into your thinking and you realise just how big this is going to be.
gggg21 agree completely - on this board we've heard of so many new tests - the next NCYT, the NCYT killer - yet NCYT just go about there business of growing rapidly and supplying a demand hungry world with a proven, reliable and trusted kit. There is plenty of room for many good tests in this market as the market is huge. AVCT may well do very well - they are in their honeymoon period right now, but doubts remain. Frankly no one knows if there test will even work, how much they can produce, what the accuracy is. It is a far more risky play at present, the mcap on no finished product is very high, but I'm not ruling it out and will keep a close eye on it. At present NCYT is still where its at - GDR, ODX, AVCT all promising but as yet none of them have a test on the market.
Wow, I may have underestimated where this may go - billions needed - WHO. Frankly staggering.
https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/24-04-2020-global-leaders-unite-to-ensure-everyone-everywhere-can-access-new-vaccines-tests-and-treatments-for-covid-19
I completely understand what you're saying but you need to understand the game more. Most people will say that you can't effect the price by posting on BB's - I'm sorry that is a fallacy. There are paid derampers on the books of brokers to do just that, because it works. You say starve them, it wouldn't matter they will just post and post again. It is there job. You'll know when an attack is on by the number of negative posts suddenly appearing, its like an onslaught. And that's because it is, its a coordinated attack. AIM isn't regulated as it should be, there is easy money to be made by the unscrupulous. Its disgusting but it is how it is.
Oscar - temporary bilps. AVCT have possible a fantastic product, but that is the point, possibly. They are currently overpriced for what they have. If they deliver, can ramp up production, can get distributors they will go a long way. But first I expect a pullback, if no news on Monday, doubt and the likes of Ade will jump in and deramp. The honest fact is NCYT are so many months ahead of all the new competition, they have a fantastic product, they have built up capacity, have distribution all around the world ( I get annoyed by the hang up about the UK TBH), regulated all over the world. At this moment in time AVCT have nothing on NCYT. That's not to say they won't in the future, and I'll watch it closely. But I fully expect a fall back in their price when doubt sets it. That's all AIM is, its about psychology and emotion and the possible realisation about that potential. Hence the swings and roundabouts, understand that and you will do well. That's when the scum bags come out they love to feed on doubt and uncertainty. Every share that has potential will get it - AVCT's turn will be next week no doubt.
Ade, first most I bought at 60p sold at 160p, bought back at £1 sold at 4,90, bought back at £3 now I wait for £7+. In all that time I haven't deramped once, I've only brought this up to show you you're not that good. I believe in this share long time, and truly believe in the value. But I'm experienced enough to know their will be peaks and troughs. I'm good enough to never talk crap on something I believe in to try and get a better price. Integrity and principles go a long way, you have neither. Nor the honesty to stay away after everyone voted you away.
Firstly Ade didn't you get 10 messages and promised to never post on this bb again. Promise broken, i.e can't be trusted absolute fool with no integrity. Spurs - please don't give him the time of day - he's been saying it was over priced at 140p, 160p, 200p etc etc. Both fools. You unfortunately get them on shares that rise like this, they think they are geniuses, they are not. The people who make money hold, some really clever ones can trade in and out, most of you can't. In that case hold. Don't listen to low life. NCYT figures speak for themselves, and they are desperate, as in AIM they can normally cast doubt, here they are having real trouble. Its kinda lovely to watch.
The last price we know per test was £8.70 though I imagine that has increased again, last year PCR tests by Primerdesign were at an 80% margin. Maybe a little less with outsourced manufacturing but they seem to be rising the price to keep those margins roughly intact give or take a few %.
Sharehunter - they will be upto 8m well before 11 weeks. I think that's the CEO just under promising so he can over deliver again. On 12th march they announced they were trying to up the production upto 2m (from 250k), just over a month later they're at 4m. I expect they'll over deliver on this timeframe too. Great CEO work compared to most aim ones who over-promise and under deliver.
LX - laughable - so you're suggesting their margin by you calculation has gone from 80% to 2.8% as they've got a couple of manufactures on board to help supply the critical raw materials. And also don't forget the new d-pcr test coming out shortly which has higher margins "Novacyt has been working to address the current reported shortfall in extraction reagents required to perform PCR testing through the development of a new "direct-to-PCR" extraction method prior to running the Company's COVID-19 test. This removes the need for some scarce reagents and significantly reduces the number of extraction steps, allowing faster cycle times, higher throughputs and cost savings."
LPX81 - NCYTs margins are 80% for PCR tests. The last know sale price was £8.7 per kit to the NHS. That was up from £6 a test when they first started, I'd imagine price is even higher now due to demand. You're calculations are way off on profit per test.
Primerdesign margins on PCR kits last year was around 80-84% - may be slightly lower on this covid test. Also next week their new d-PCR kit comes out which uses fewer reagents. This means its even cheaper to produce so probably will have higher margins too. Also its faster than the current test they have, and removes bottlenecks from labs - this is what they are working on to supply with astra/gsk by May.
Wow - some truly terrible posts on here.
Lets address competition - there will always be competition - millions and millions of tests are needed there will be no-one winner - there will be many some bigger than others. NCYT are already competing well with multibillion £ companies like Roche / Abbott / Thermofisher is this regard - has it seen their sales pipeline diminish - nope they've grown their capacity 40x in just over 2 months. Its great to see the likes of AVCT for example pioneering new tests, but they aren't proven, have no reg approval, have to build up capacity, build up a customer base - all of which NCYT have. NCYT are linked with the 2 biggest pharmas in the world in Astra and GSK - they are selling everything they make, and will comfortably making £40m rev a month at approx. 80% margin. Forget the ups and downs this is cheap long term.