We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
New d-pcr test due in about 10 days time - faster, cheaper, solves bottlenecks at labs allowing for huge increase in testing.
Sales update - we know they're at 4m a month now, and I'd imagine the future order book awaiting tests has grown significantly.
Orders from US - we know primerdesign are selling in the US - but wait for that confirmation RNS
More countries approval for test
New OEM partnerships
Takeover?
What crazy times - the markets may be wild tomorrow because of this. The only way to get the economies of the world on track is by fighting covid. Oil turning negative is gonna crush a lot of hedge funds, pension pots, absolutely crazy - the onus will be even more on shares like NCYT that help us get over this covid economic nightmare. Things could get crazy on covid plays in the coming days/weeks.
Oh dear, they've come out again. Many investors are blinkered by trying to apply logic to an illogical time. This pandemic has grasped the world by the balls and shows no sign of letting up. "Novacyt is focused on managing what it believes will be a period of sustained, significant demand for its COVID-19 test.". SUSTAINED. It isn't going away in a month or two, they will be testing and testing for months maybe years. They wouldn't increase capacity again to 8m if there wasn't the demand from their customers. These are the simple facts, throw in the new d-pcr test which will be a world first, along with their partnership with the 2 biggest pharma companies in Britain it doesn't take a genius to see where this is going. There may come a time when the peak will be reached, but it is not now or for many months to come. It really is that simple - and I've been saying it on this board the last 2-3 months that this is still undervalued. Every time from 60p - 100p - 140p - 200p -400p people have been saying its overvalued. They are just wrong, wrong, wrong - and will be wrong again. Its just another day with new derampers, the same will happen when its at 600p, and the circus will continue.
Lockyer - excellent post and I completely agree - the new PCR test kit is defo in conjunction with Astra and GSK - no doubt NCYT developed the test - but its all about increasing the amount of testing that can be done and reducing bottlenecks at labs. The new test is a game changer and keeps NCYT one step ahead of the pack. You've got to quickly adapt and move forward to gain market share and that's why that and also the quick ramping up of capacity is so impressive. Capacity has ramped up 20x already to 4m in just over a month, and will be 40x up from the start on the next increase. Its truly incredible - the next sales update I expect to see an upward trajectory, but its the next sales one after that will be the true humdinger of one. This company is making all the right steps to a $1b mcap company, and if they keep progressing as they are - well beyond that.
I think shorting should be allowed but with a caveat, only on companies over a certain mcap - say £500m, and yes they should be taxed, and also not allowed to be borrowed shares from holders that they do not own - that's just plain corrupt. Not on young start ups its just not beneficial. But on badly run big companies I think maybe it should. Personally I never have shorted, as it goes against my principles, but you can make a lot of money from it, and is often easier than longing. What's worse we all the scum on these boards which turns it into a playground - they try to just drown out reasonable posts as quickly as they appear. But what I love about NCYT - its turned into one of those few stocks that keeps burning the shorters - they've had it so easy so long that they just can't believe a company has risen so much keeps rising, so keep trying to short, its funny as hell. NCYT has the right product, brilliant team and management, at the most extreme right time. Pity those shorter fools, as they are gonna burn again and again.
Mr Spacetomato - you may wish to read my post again. I'm singing the praises of NCYT. The new test NCYT are developing is a game changer, and keeps us well ahead of the pack. Its faster, cheaper to produce (less reagents), over comes shortages in reagents worldwide, and overcomes bottlenecks at lab testing facilities.
Silkman - Roche had its FDA approval before NCYT (though its test came a couple of weeks later) - my point being the big boys have been involved since the start, and it hasn't effected NCYT. The FT article is about a new antibody test, that doesn't effect NCYT as ours is an antigen test (it may have impact on AVCT and ODX). Roche's PCR test is not as good as NCYT's - its slower and less accurate - they also have a shortage of reagents so are roughly producing the same amount as NCYT. And guess what those clever little boys and girls at NCYT have done - yep developed a new improved test that doesn't need as many reagents. So it skips over the shortage supply. This is due in 2 weeks. NCYT have proved time and time again they are a match for if not better than most of the big boys out there.
Other testing kits - those ones you've mentioned don't even have a finished product, some are weeks away one is a couple of months away. They then have to get regs approved, 2-4 weeks for that, they then have to build up capacity, they then have to build up world wide distributors. Do you see there problem? Not saying they won't do well, but NCYT were first to market, already have all of the above, and now are trusted as one of the best kits out there.
Barnet - that's a reasonable post, but your acting like %125 is normal - this is derisked compared to others, the big money is always won on the risks, but it also lost. Many were saying the same at £1, £2 etc that there was no more headroom. NCYT have just increased capacity 20x in just over a month, and soon it will be 40x from the start. That to me is a no brainer, low risk investment as one can make. Every step they have done has been brilliant. People forget the significance of first to market. NCYT has pushed its way past mutli-billion corps and taken the lead. Its basically one of, it not the go-to test for many countries in the world. Other tests will come and maybe another will do well, but most have to prove accuracy, get regs, ramp up production, gain worldwide acceptance, gain distributors all over the world. NCYT are already there, money pouring in, and they are still improving their science to make quicker, cheaper tests. I put back on this thread about a month ago that this would be a £400-500m mcap company, well we are nearly there, but the way NCYT have handled themselves, the prolonged pandemic seemingly here for months, I would actually think a £1billion mcap isn't out of the question. Another month down the line I wouldn't be surprised to have to increase that forecast too.
Breatheasy - you were saying the exact same thing about antibody test needed to take NCYT to the next level two weeks ago - when the price was under £2. Ahem.
Breatheasy - well couple of massive things wrong with your statement - firstly do you think NCYT would be looking to have 40x its increase in capacity since just over a month ago if there wasn't the demand...Secondly - in two weeks time there new improved test will be ready - less reagents, cheaper to produce, can handle more through put, and faster run times. That addresses any bottle neck issues.
This guys been doing great work on working out potential share price on NCYT - he now see's £20-23 target price based on 8m capacity.
https://twitter.com/GMF782/status/1250445910699659265
Originally on the NCYT website you could see the test kit for sale was £6. They quickly removed this - the next value of £8.7 per test was worked when NHS Hampshire gave out exact details of the number of tests they purchased and how much they paid - yep it worked out to £8.7 per test. The £20 per test figure is based on one of NCYT distributors selling it for £20 a pop (however they are probably making at least a 30% profit on what they buy it from NCYT).
Team to deliver an antibody test by end of month - Well we know who the others are Cambridge University and little old NCYT.
"Keith-Roach (Astra CEO) said the team in Cambridge is also working on antibody tests and will test on a small scale in the first week of May.
"We are working to deliver a validated test by the beginning of May that we could then scale up by the end of the month," he said.